UK effort to engage EU on Russia may falter

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
The Us ◽  
Theresa May ◽  
The Eu

Significance The statement is tougher than expected, and the EU also recalled its Moscow ambassador for consultations. The EU's shift is a win for UK Prime Minister Theresa May as she attempts to build a multilateral consensus rather than relying solely on unilateral retaliation. Impacts EU sectoral and individual sanctions on Russia will be extended in July and September despite reluctance among some members. Talk of blocking Russian natural gas imports is impracticable. The US Congress will pressure the White House to target individuals identified in January 2018 'oligarch list'.

Disagreement possible over pace of Myanmar-US policy

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Transition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Labour Rights ◽  
Generalized System ◽  
Generalized System Of Preferences ◽  
The Us ◽  
Aung San Suu Kyi ◽  
Policy Engagement

Subject Outlook for US policy engagement with Myanmar as the US presidential transition nears. Significance The White House is preparing to lift most remaining US sanctions on Myanmar, after President Barack Obama's September 14 announcement to this effect when he met Myanmar State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi. Washington will also restore Myanmar's access to the US Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) because of recent improvements in labour rights. Supporting Myanmar's democratic 'transition' has been a key Obama policy and the president is attempting to fix progress before his successor takes office in January 2017. Impacts Myanmar's government will deepen ties with Beijing, but not necessarily to the extent of eclipsing US ties. The Rohingya issue will still cause some friction in Myanmar-US ties. Policy gaps and delays on Myanmar between the US Congress and next president may expand.

Thai-US diplomatic and economic links will repair

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Intellectual Property ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
State Cooperation ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Section 301

Significance This is the first visit to Washington by a Thai prime minister since 2005. Thai-US relations have been much cooler since the mid-2014 military coup that Prayuth, as an army general, led to depose Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. The visit, therefore, had high symbolism. It was also controversial because Trump is warming ties with a coup leader who has instituted a new constitution that will weaken elected government in Thailand after the next election, which Prayuth told Trump would take place in 2018. Impacts Thailand’s election could be delayed to 2019: two of the required pre-poll ‘organic laws’ will not be passed until end-2018. Thai intellectual property protections will likely be strengthened to avoid sanctions under the US Trade Act’s Section 301. Thai-US anti-Islamic State cooperation will likely be slow to build, partly given southern Thailand’s Muslim-Buddhist conflict. Thailand will push for enhanced trade ties with the EU and post-Brexit United Kingdom.

Abe's US visit tightens alliance ties

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Investment Bank ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Military Alliance ◽  
The Us ◽  
Japanese Prime Minister ◽  
The Military

Significance This is the first state visit extended to a Japanese prime minister since Junichiro Koizumi's in 2006 under the George W Bush administration. Abe was awarded the honour on April 29 of being the first Japanese prime minister to address together both houses of the US Congress. Impacts Abe has strengthened the military alliance, but fulfilling his promises to Washington will cost him political capital at home. History issues are increasingly able to cause Abe problems in the United States as well as East Asia. The economic alliance is shakier than the military one; the US Congress may still delay the TPP. Tokyo and Washington look isolated as the TPP stalls and regional governments sign up to China's Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

Papal visit is part of Cuba's international opening

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Financial Institution ◽  
State Institution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
International Financial Institution ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
The Us ◽  
Paris Club

Significance Cuba is working on many fronts to advance its international insertion after the breakthrough restoration of diplomatic ties with the United States. However, progress is gradual and uneven. A first agreement on Cuba's debt has been reached with the Paris Club, underscoring Cuba's interest in regaining access to financial markets. The Latin American Development Bank (CAF) is the first international financial institution to engage with Cuba, but broader cooperation still faces difficulties. Impacts The popular pope's visit will strengthen the Church's political position as Cuba's most important non-state institution. It will also add to pressure on the US Congress from the White House to lift sanctions. Cooperation with CAF and other bodies will require Cuba to supply transparent and comprehensive economic data -- mostly still lacking. Economic reform is likely to see major new liberalisation measures before the Communist Party congress scheduled for April 2016.

Nuclear deal portends EU-Iran regional security focus

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Political Engagement ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Us ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
The Eu

Subject Future EU relations with Iran. Significance Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will make his first state visits to Europe during the autumn, to France and Italy. The EU and its member states see July's nuclear deal as opening a new chapter in relations. The EU3 -- France, Germany and the United Kingdom -- are using the subsequent political momentum to expand bilateral relations and explore new openings for engagement on Middle East security. Impacts Deeper political engagement with the EU widens Iran's partnership options beyond Russia and China. It would also allow Tehran to compete more effectively with the Gulf states for EU attention and resources. If the US Congress rejected the deal, EU sympathies would be with Iran; EU-Iran rapprochement would be hard to reverse. The success of the sanctions-plus-negotiations strategy with Iran could affect other EU sanctions policy discussions, notably on Russia.

An opening of the Brexit deadlock nears

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Political Change ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Alternative Plan ◽  
European Parliament Elections ◽  
Theresa May ◽  
The Eu

Subject Brexit outlook. Significance If Prime Minister Theresa May can get the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) and Political Declaration on future relations approved in Parliament this week, the United Kingdom should leave the EU on May 22. However, it remains unlikely that her deal will gain a parliamentary majority, setting up a different deadline. The United Kingdom must come up with an alternative plan by April 12 or face the prospect of crashing out of the EU with no deal. Impacts The United Kingdom could have a new prime minister within weeks; a general election cannot be ruled out. The EU will remain distracted by Brexit as it heads into a season of political change beginning with European Parliament elections in May. As a final option, May could commit to resigning to get support for the WA from Conservative Party MPs.

Puerto Rico will enact deep fiscal cuts after default

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Virgin Islands ◽  
Control Board ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Us Virgin Islands ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
The Us ◽  
Migration Crisis ◽  
The University

Significance The missed payment marks the island’s second default of 2017 after missing payments in January. The federal fiscal control board imposed by the US Congress has given the indebted Puerto Rican government until February 28 to formulate new budget proposals for the next two years and a ten-year fiscal plan. The control board also extended a temporary stay on creditor litigation to May 1. Impacts A public health or migration crisis involving Puerto Rico’s US citizens would present the White House with political difficulties. Holders of bonds from the highly indebted US Virgin Islands will watch congressional action on Puerto Rico closely. Cuts to employee benefits and tuition increases at the University of Puerto Rico are likely to spark protests.

Exit talks may not clarify future UK-EU relationship

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Member State ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
The Government ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
Theresa May ◽  
The Eu

Significance Prime Minister Theresa May has committed herself to triggering Article 50 by the end of March 2017. No member state has made use of Article 50 and there is thus much uncertainty about what leaving and, more specifically, triggering Article 50 might involve. Impacts May's timetable could be derailed if the Supreme Court decides that the government cannot invoke Article 50 without parliamentary approval. The EU is likely to maintain its firm stance and refuse to engage in any negotiations before Article 50 is triggered. The continued uncertainty over the terms of Brexit is likely to hit business confidence and could deter investments.

EU-UK Brexit talks will gain urgency

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Task Force ◽  
Negative Mood ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Poor ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
Heads Of State ◽  
Theresa May ◽  
The Eu

Significance The summit represented an opportunity for UK Prime Minister Theresa May to discuss her Brexit plans directly with other heads of state and government rather than doing so via the European Commission’s Article 50 task force. Impacts The negative mood music from the Salzburg summit is weakening May’s position in her Conservative Party. The poor personal relationship between May and her Irish counterpart Leo Varadkar is complicating discussions on the Irish border. The unity of the EU27 could crumble once trade negotiations bring their divergent interests to the fore. The EU is maintaining its insistence that there can be no ‘hybrid model’ between Norway and Canada.

US Congress will seek greater foreign policy control

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Damage Control ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
The Us ◽  
Policy Control ◽  
Sticking Point

Significance The resolution was a Democratic attempt at damage control after comments by a newly elected caucus member that were perceived as anti-Semitic: the party fears being tagged as ‘anti-Israel’ before 2020’s elections. This resolution is the latest move in a brewing congressional battle over the Boycott-Divest-Sanction movement, which brings together several US anti-Israel groups. The rallying cry for this issue is the proposed Israel Anti-Boycott Act, which has 292 co-sponsors in the House and 58 in the Senate. Impacts The White House will resist congressional efforts to limit the president’s foreign policy powers. The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement will be agreed but could be delayed for final changes. Congress will seek a greater role on US North Korea, Saudi Arabia and Iran policy. US-Russia policy will be a sticking point between the Democrats and Trump White House.

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