Prospects for the United Kingdom in 2018

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Theresa May ◽  
Growth Forecasts

Subject Prospects for the United Kingdom in 2018. Significance UK politics in 2018 will still be under the long shadow of the surprising setback Prime Minister Theresa May suffered in the early election she called in June. Meanwhile, growth forecasts for the economy have been downgraded and downside risks remain high. Since the Brexit vote in 2016, the United Kingdom has gone from one of the fastest-growing G7 economies to the slowest.

An opening of the Brexit deadlock nears

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Political Change ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Alternative Plan ◽  
European Parliament Elections ◽  
Theresa May ◽  
The Eu

Subject Brexit outlook. Significance If Prime Minister Theresa May can get the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) and Political Declaration on future relations approved in Parliament this week, the United Kingdom should leave the EU on May 22. However, it remains unlikely that her deal will gain a parliamentary majority, setting up a different deadline. The United Kingdom must come up with an alternative plan by April 12 or face the prospect of crashing out of the EU with no deal. Impacts The United Kingdom could have a new prime minister within weeks; a general election cannot be ruled out. The EU will remain distracted by Brexit as it heads into a season of political change beginning with European Parliament elections in May. As a final option, May could commit to resigning to get support for the WA from Conservative Party MPs.

Scotland will have a second vote on independence

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Single Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
European Single Market ◽  
Theresa May

Significance The move comes in response to London’s apparent determination to pursue a ‘hard' Brexit, taking the United Kingdom out of the European single market. While UK Prime Minister Theresa May has so far refused to grant the order, Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is adamant that "Scotland's future will be in Scotland's hands". Impacts Council elections in May will give some indication of public feeling on independence. While the stakes in this referendum will be higher than in the last, it is likely to be peaceful. London's need to maintain an open border with Ireland will negate any threat of a hard border with Scotland.

May will have to negotiate Brexit in EU and at home

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Services Sector ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
Theresa May ◽  
The Eu

Significance The next challenge for UK Prime Minister Theresa May is to reconcile the requirements laid down by the EU and domestic political pressures in progressing the Brexit talks still further. Impacts The EU’s proposals would not allow the United Kingdom to sign trade deals before the end of transition. A Canada-style trade agreement would damage the United Kingdom’s services sector. Failure to negotiate a transition period within the next few months could lead to some companies beginning to relocate.

EU-UK deal allows Cameron to campaign against Brexit

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
David Cameron ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The package of reforms on a new EU-UK relationship. Significance The agreement between the United Kingdom and its EU partners sets the stage for the UK referendum on EU membership, which Prime Minister David Cameron has set for June 23. Cameron said he had negotiated new terms that would allow the United Kingdom to remain in the EU. Impacts The deal bolsters the campaign to remain in the EU, but the referendum outcome is still highly uncertain. The deal will only come into effect if the outcome is for remaining, forestalling a second referendum for better terms. If the outcome is for leaving, a new relationship with the EU would have to be negotiated during a two-year transition period. It would also probably lead to a second Scottish independence referendum and UK break-up.

Advanced combat drone will boost UK-French industry

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Next Generation ◽  
David Cameron ◽  
Fighter Aircraft ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Industrial Cooperation ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Relationship

Subject Anglo-French agreement to fund the next phase of their collaborative drone programme. Significance The accord announced at the Amiens summit on March 3 between French President Francois Hollande and UK Prime Minister David Cameron commits the two countries to investing 1.9 billion euros (2.1 billion dollars) in the production of Europe's most advanced combat drone. A sophisticated drone programme will be vital to both countries' industrial bases, especially as neither currently has plans to develop a next generation fighter aircraft to replace the Typhoon or Rafale. Impacts Closer industrial cooperation between Europe's most advanced defence powers will strengthen European capabilities. The project will underpin growing cooperation in the defence and security field between the United Kingdom and France. A possible Brexit could affect the relationship, and the United Kingdom might lose out on an increasing EU R&D budget devoted to defence.

Future of China-UK engagement lies in Beijing’s hands

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Educational Partnerships ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
China Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Large Numbers

Significance Prime Minister Boris Johnson talks of a “calibrated” China policy that combines toughness in particular areas with continued engagement in others. Impacts Migration of Hongkongers to the United Kingdom in large numbers would invigorate anti-Beijing activism. Chinese investments in UK nuclear power are unlikely to proceed as planned. Beijing’s extraterritorial attempts to suppress dissent in the United Kingdom will intensify. Universities and researchers should expect a push for government-mandated reviews of UK-China research and educational partnerships. Beijing may target particular firms or economic sectors to ‘punish’ London, but most bilateral trade will continue.

Japan's foreign policy caution will not last

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Foreign Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Korean ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
High Level ◽  
Economic Ties

Subject Recent developments in Japanese foreign policy. Significance This month has seen a flurry of high-level diplomatic activity. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has visited Germany, France, Italy, Belgium and the United Kingdom and Russia. Over the same period, Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida visited China, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos and Vietnam. Impacts Except for Washington, G7 governments have more interest in economic ties with Beijing than in Tokyo's concerns about territorial issues. Japan's willingness to engage Russia may draw the West's ire in due course. The process of relocating the Futenma airbase may drag on for another decade. TPP ratification will be slower than Abe wanted, but US politics is the greatest obstacle. A weakened South Korean administration could find itself pushed into a more hostile approach to Tokyo.

UK market bill poses internal and external risks

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Labour Party ◽  
Political Survival ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Eu

Significance The bill establishes a new statutory regime for goods and services trade within the United Kingdom, which is essential for signing trade agreements. However, it also contains clauses on the Northern Ireland Protocol which threaten to override the legally binding EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement (WA), while giving London new powers over the devolved administrations, including on state aid. Impacts The EU is unlikely to collapse the trade talks with the United Kingdom. An EU-UK deal is still possible because the alternative would seriously threaten Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s political survival. The new bill, on top of COVID-19, will give the opposition Labour Party an opportunity to overtake the Conservatives in the polls.

Fractured French populace may thwart Macron

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Policy ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Angela Merkel ◽  
Selection Of

Significance Macron won 66% of the vote versus Le Pen’s 34%, on a turnout of nearly 76% -- the second-lowest for a second-round election since 1965. Once Macron is sworn in (by May 14), his selection of a caretaker government, and particularly of a prime minister, will provide only a temporary clue as to how he might govern, for the legislative elections on June 11 and 18 risk leaving him without a parliamentary majority. Impacts The French-German axis will strengthen, even if Chancellor Angela Merkel fails to be re-elected in September. Macron will restore France’s engagement in EU policy-making, with particular implications for Greece and the United Kingdom. France’s stance towards Russia may harden due to Moscow's likely interference in the election. Macron will likely adopt a pragmatic, Merkel-like approach to US President Donald Trump.

Prospects for the United Kingdom in 2017

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Labour Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Failed Attempt ◽  
Jeremy Corbyn ◽  
Clear Majority

Subject Prospects for the United Kingdom in 2017. Significance Politics this year was shaken by the Brexit referendum, Prime Minister David Cameron's resignation and the failed attempt by a clear majority of the parliamentary Labour Party to force the removal of Jeremy Corbyn as their leader. The economy has remained resilient, but there are the first signs of a slowdown.

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