Pompeo is likely to work well with US president

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Relations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Secretary Of State ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Confirmation Hearings

Significance Senators yesterday voted 57 to 42 to confirm Pompeo as President Donald Trump's second secretary of state; some Democratic senators crossed the aisle to vote with Republican colleagues. During the confirmation hearings, at times it seemed unlikely Pompeo would gain sufficient votes in the Senate's foreign relations committee to secure its recommendation for confirmation by the full Senate. Impacts Pompeo will likely have closer and more enduring White House ties than his predecessor. Pompeo could face further criticism from the Senate foreign relations committee. 'Red-state' Democrats that voted for Pompeo and who face re-election in November's midterms may gain some voters' support. As the midterm elections near, Pompeo is likely to direct further attention to US-Russia relations.

Biden's White House team becomes more important

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Leadership Style ◽  
Foreign Relations ◽  
Political Thinking ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Midterm Elections

Significance As the White House faces a crucial few weeks for the president’s domestic agenda, and with next year’s midterm elections already a major factor in political thinking, advice from those close to Biden and the president’s own leadership style will assume greater importance. Impacts Biden’s standing with world leaders has fallen following recent events and this may affect his leadership on climate change. As leader of his party, Biden will use White House influence to prevent defections by right-leaning Democrats. Republicans in Congress will increase their criticism of Biden’s competence, particularly in foreign relations. The public’s support for Biden will be tied to his ability to be control the spread of COVID-19.

US-Myanmar sanctions could be lifted in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Business Leaders ◽  
Military Rule ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Secretary Of State ◽  
The Us ◽  
Confirmation Hearings

Subject Outlook for US sanctions on Myanmar. Significance Following Myanmar's historic election that will end decades of military rule, the country's officials and business leaders are pressing for remaining US sanctions to be lifted. The issue arose during Senate confirmation hearings on December 1 for the US administration's nominee to be ambassador to Naypyidaw, Scot Marciel. On November 25 during a visit to Myanmar, Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Russel outlined pre-conditions for sanctions relief. Impacts Congressional support for the full lifting of US sanctions on Myanmar will be limited for now. Thus US citizens will continue facing restrictions on importing Myanmar-mined gems and trading with certain Myanmar banks. Lifting of US restrictions on Myanmar's jade exports will take time and demand environmental and rights improvements.

US foreign policy will go right after Tillerson

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Deputy Director ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Secretary Of State ◽  
Midterm Elections

Significance President Donald Trump said he dismissed Tillerson as he wants his cabinet to be more in line with his thinking; Trump and Tillerson had clashed over policies and priorities. CIA Director Mike Pompeo will be nominated to succeed Tillerson. The nominee to replace Pompeo at the CIA will be current CIA Deputy Director Gina Haspel. Impacts A better-coordinated foreign policy team could help Trump prepare for his new push on North Korea-US ties. Pompeo may find as secretary of state that he disagrees more openly with Trump; the CIA director is not public-facing. Conceivably, the 2018 midterm elections could further delay Trump nominees, but secretaries could work in an acting capacity.

Trump policies will increase global nuclear tensions

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Weapons ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Secretary Of State

Significance Amid bilateral tensions with Pyongyang over its nuclear programme, the Trump White House is considering withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and advocating the reintroduction of low-yield nuclear weapons for battlefield use. Impacts Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s arguments for the Iran nuclear deal are unlikely to bear fruit and may speed his rumoured exit. US arsenal modernisation and doctrine shifts are likely to envenom New START renewal talks with Moscow ahead of the treaty's 2018 lapse. Trump decertifying Iran’s JCPOA compliance may undercut the attractiveness of IAEA inspections in the eyes of other nuclear states.

Both main US parties lost and won overnight

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Midterm Elections

Significance The result was anticipated, not least as the incumbent US president’s party almost always loses congressional seats in midterm elections. Yet this makes the 2018 polls no less significant for both parties, for the 2020 White House race and for President Donald Trump’s Republican administration in the second half of his first term. Impacts Continuing Republican Senate control greatly diminishes the chance Trump could be impeached. Bipartisan cooperation over foreign policy is unlikely to recover soon, partly due to Russia-related controversy. These midterms have elected more women, minorities and younger people, which will influence policy priorities. Trump’s “America First” agenda lives on, but the question of which party’s “America” will loom in 2019-21.

Republican leader Kevin McCarthy has difficult role

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Republican Party ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Midterm Elections

Significance McCarthy has a difficult role within a Republican Party that remains beholden to former President Donald Trump but has elements that wish to maintain a degree of autonomy from him. The coming months, as the Democrats’ agenda moves through the House, will also test his legislative skills. Impacts Republicans only need a net gain of five seats in the 2022 midterm elections to take control of the House. The redistricting process now beginning in all 50 states should result in more winnable seats for Republicans in 2022. McCarthy’s alignment with Trump appears sufficient to prevent any Republican challenge to his becoming Speaker. As Speaker, McCarthy would conduct constant conflict with the Biden White House on most issues, with China the main exception.

US midterm elections pose challenges for Democrats

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Illegal Immigrants ◽  
Law And Order ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Presidential Nomination ◽  
The Past ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Democrats And Republicans

Significance At present, Republicans need to gain only five seats to take control of the House of Representatives and just one to control the Senate. Awareness that the party holding the White House usually loses seats in midterm elections is driving tactics among both Democrats and Republicans. Impacts Republicans are likely to rely on law and order issues that have proved politically successful for them in the past. Republicans will link Democratic 'softness' on illegal immigrants to rising crime and Biden’s approach to Mexican border security. Securing a Republican Congress may well lead Donald Trump to commit to running for the party’s 2024 presidential nomination.

Russian-US rift too great for summits to bring detente

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Nuclear Arms

Significance The White House and the Kremlin have released few details of the summit's agenda, though it is known the two presidents discussed alleged Russian election interference, Syria and Ukraine, nuclear arms and economic relations. Trump's talk of inviting Putin to Washington generated strong opposition from critics in both parties. Impacts Mueller investigation indictments full of facts and data are increasingly hard to dismiss; Putin now responds by changing the subject. Trump's political adversaries will use his Helsinki performance to underline the 'Russia factor' in the November midterm elections. A Trump-Putin meeting could happen on the margins of upcoming multilateral forums.

Trump picks will reshape role of US federal government

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Policy ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
Domestic Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
Political Clout ◽  
Us Federal Government ◽  
Confirmation Hearings

Significance Sessions marks the first Trump appointee of the confirmation process, which will continue over the coming weeks. Trump’s appointees to cabinet positions, independent agencies and the Executive Office of the President (EOP) may offer some early indications of his domestic policy priorities and the advice he receives. While the necessary compromises of office-holding will limit Trump’s ability to deliver on campaign promises, early indications suggest dramatic shifts in Washington against orthodox positions on regulation and social programmes. Impacts Federal social policy interventions are likely to be rolled back dramatically over the next four years. Confirmation hearings will provide Senate Democrats with a forum to attack the White House. However, Democrats’ internal divisions and limited political clout will allow conservatives to advance their deregulatory agenda.

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