Republican leader Kevin McCarthy has difficult role

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Republican Party ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Midterm Elections

Significance McCarthy has a difficult role within a Republican Party that remains beholden to former President Donald Trump but has elements that wish to maintain a degree of autonomy from him. The coming months, as the Democrats’ agenda moves through the House, will also test his legislative skills. Impacts Republicans only need a net gain of five seats in the 2022 midterm elections to take control of the House. The redistricting process now beginning in all 50 states should result in more winnable seats for Republicans in 2022. McCarthy’s alignment with Trump appears sufficient to prevent any Republican challenge to his becoming Speaker. As Speaker, McCarthy would conduct constant conflict with the Biden White House on most issues, with China the main exception.

US midterm elections pose challenges for Democrats

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Illegal Immigrants ◽  
Law And Order ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Presidential Nomination ◽  
The Past ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Democrats And Republicans

Significance At present, Republicans need to gain only five seats to take control of the House of Representatives and just one to control the Senate. Awareness that the party holding the White House usually loses seats in midterm elections is driving tactics among both Democrats and Republicans. Impacts Republicans are likely to rely on law and order issues that have proved politically successful for them in the past. Republicans will link Democratic 'softness' on illegal immigrants to rising crime and Biden’s approach to Mexican border security. Securing a Republican Congress may well lead Donald Trump to commit to running for the party’s 2024 presidential nomination.

US foreign policy will go right after Tillerson

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Deputy Director ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Secretary Of State ◽  
Midterm Elections

Significance President Donald Trump said he dismissed Tillerson as he wants his cabinet to be more in line with his thinking; Trump and Tillerson had clashed over policies and priorities. CIA Director Mike Pompeo will be nominated to succeed Tillerson. The nominee to replace Pompeo at the CIA will be current CIA Deputy Director Gina Haspel. Impacts A better-coordinated foreign policy team could help Trump prepare for his new push on North Korea-US ties. Pompeo may find as secretary of state that he disagrees more openly with Trump; the CIA director is not public-facing. Conceivably, the 2018 midterm elections could further delay Trump nominees, but secretaries could work in an acting capacity.

US Democrats cannot assume their resurgence

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Republican Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Election Victory

Significance Jones’s election victory in December was an upset, albeit not a surprising one, for the Republican Party, which had fielded a controversial candidate. The victory has also whetted Democratic expectations of electoral resurgence in November’s midterm elections. Impacts Even without a Democratic victory in Congress, Republicans will be divided and thus hesitant over policy. After November, Democrats will begin seeking their presidential contender for 2020. The Democrats will try to water down Trump immigration initiatives ahead of November’s midterms.

US president’s clemency powers could see party fight

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Campaign ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Immigration Control ◽  
Policy Goals ◽  
Cover Up

Significance The APPA would place scrutiny mechanisms around the president’s pardon power. The bills have been introduced because their sponsors fear President Donald Trump and his White House -- which directly or indirectly face investigations relating to whether his presidential campaign colluded with Russia -- have something to ‘cover up’ and are readying to use the pardon powers to ‘silence’ witnesses and ‘protect’ people. Yet the president and White House deny any wrongdoing -- and thus any need or any plans to wield the pardon power in this way. Impacts States may amend their laws to give their judiciaries more prosecutorial powers over federal pardon recipients. Congress might lack the votes to overturn a presidential veto of any pardon-related law. Trump will likely use his clemency powers to support his policy goals, such as immigration control. Greater sensitivity over clemency could hinder the president from legitimately exercising his clemency powers.

US diplomatic service will be downsized and degraded

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Process ◽  
The State ◽  
Direct Influence ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
The Us ◽  
Cutting Out ◽  
Foreign Policy Crises

Subject The State Department. Significance The US State Department’s third-ranking official and most senior career diplomat, Tom Shannon, announced his departure on February 1. While the 60-year old Shannon said he was stepping down for personal reasons, he is only the latest in a stream of senior career diplomats who have left since Donald Trump became president a year ago and appointed Rex Tillerson as secretary of state with a mandate to downsize the department. Impacts Minimising the benefits of diplomacy in favour of military action could exacerbate foreign policy crises and conflicts. White House heel-dragging on filling posts both 'streamlines' State and avoids congressional confirmation scrutiny of political nominees. Concerned that State wields little influence with the White House, Congress will be more assertive in the foreign policy process. Other powers -- particularly US allies -- will seek and have increased direct influence on the White House, cutting out State.

US reports of Afghan withdrawal feed uncertainty

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Policy Making ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House

Significance Khalilzad's determined shuttle diplomacy has been thrown into doubt by reports that President Donald Trump wants to halve the 14,000-strong US contingent in Afghanistan. A troop drawdown in Afghanistan would reverse the policy set out in a 2017 strategy for robust engagement influenced by Defense Secretary James Mattis, who announced his resignation on December 20 and left office on December 31. Impacts Erratic White House policy-making will undermine Washington's credibility as a long-term Afghan ally and mentor. Other countries contributing troops to NATO's Afghan mission may reduce their contingents accordingly. Russia will ramp up its own diplomatic effort, although it too is seen as partisan in the Afghan conflict.

Erdogan will not alter US ties to Kurds

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Training And Support

Subject The Erdogan-Trump meeting on May 16. Significance Turkey yesterday blamed US officials for "security lapses" during President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit to Washington last week, which turned into a media disaster when the Turkish president’s guards beat up demonstrators in front of the TV cameras, with Erdogan looking on. The visit to meet President Donald Trump failed to produce any breakthrough on the issues dividing them, despite a friendly meeting at the White House. Although Trump is outwardly much more sympathetic to Erdogan than his predecessor was, the two countries are still far apart on Syria, where the United States remains the protector and ally of the Syrian Kurds. Impacts Turkey will continue to fortify the strip of land it occupies in northern Syria. It will step up training and support for the Sunni Arab rebel Free Syrian Army. Erdogan will respond to his increased international isolation by further clampdowns on remaining critics in Turkey.

Democrats will avoid block on US Supreme Court pick

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Personal Influence ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Us Supreme Court ◽  
Regulatory Powers

Significance President Donald Trump nominated Gorsuch to fill the Supreme Court seat left vacant by Justice Antonin Scalia’s death last year. Congressional Republicans blocked former President Barack Obama’s nominee to fill the vacancy, Judge Merrick Garland, enabling Trump to name a conservative justice to set the balance of the Court after winning the presidential election. At least one Democratic senator has threatened to block Gorsuch’s appointment via upper house procedure. Impacts Future Democratic presidential candidates from the current Senate may suffer in primaries if they allow Gorsuch’s appointment. Gorsuch will help the White House and Congress severely cut back federal regulatory powers. Congressional Republicans are more likely to defy Trump on personnel and policy as his personal influence wanes ahead of the 2020 elections.

US anti-trafficking push will align with Trump goals

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Undocumented Immigrants ◽  
State Department ◽  
Trafficking In Persons ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The Us ◽  
Reporting Process ◽  
Forced Labour

Subject The 2017 Trafficking in Persons Report. Significance The US State Department released its 2017 Trafficking in Persons (TIP) Report on June 29 in a high-profile launch that featured Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Senior White House Advisor Ivanka Trump and Ambassador Susan Coppedge, the department’s anti-trafficking office chief. The 2017 reporting process straddled two administrations: the Obama White House compiled the data, but the rankings of individual countries were ultimately decided by the administration of President Donald Trump. Impacts Congress may restrain outreach to Malaysia and Myanmar (both upgraded) over the trafficking of Myanmar’s Rohingya minority. Trump is unlikely to exercise his legal ability as president to grant protection to trafficked undocumented immigrants. Washington may raise the trafficking of North Koreans for forced labour in China if the White House sees little progress on weapons testing.

Trump will tilt further towards US religious right

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
Religious Right ◽  
Private Life ◽  
Election Cycle ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
The Us ◽  
Current Term

Subject The US political influence of the religious right. Significance By determining which party holds a majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate, November's midterm elections will influence the final two years of President Donald Trump’s current term. Given the historically relatively low voter turnouts in off-presidential-election-cycle election years, Trump’s fortunes depend heavily on his ability to mobilise core conservative voters on behalf of the Republican Party. The religious right is currently Trump’s most intensely loyal constituency and his best hope for retaining Republican majorities in Congress. Impacts Trump will nominate more social conservatives to federal judgeships. Recent gains in special elections do not prove a Democratic resurgence but imply turnout will be higher in November than normal. A Democratic gain of one or both houses of Congress would dent the religious right’s national influence. If the Republicans retain Congress, the religious right will increase its influence further at the federal level. So far, allegations against Trump over his private life do not appear likely to diminish his core support.

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