Both main US parties lost and won overnight

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Midterm Elections

Significance The result was anticipated, not least as the incumbent US president’s party almost always loses congressional seats in midterm elections. Yet this makes the 2018 polls no less significant for both parties, for the 2020 White House race and for President Donald Trump’s Republican administration in the second half of his first term. Impacts Continuing Republican Senate control greatly diminishes the chance Trump could be impeached. Bipartisan cooperation over foreign policy is unlikely to recover soon, partly due to Russia-related controversy. These midterms have elected more women, minorities and younger people, which will influence policy priorities. Trump’s “America First” agenda lives on, but the question of which party’s “America” will loom in 2019-21.

US foreign policy will go right after Tillerson

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Deputy Director ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Secretary Of State ◽  
Midterm Elections

Significance President Donald Trump said he dismissed Tillerson as he wants his cabinet to be more in line with his thinking; Trump and Tillerson had clashed over policies and priorities. CIA Director Mike Pompeo will be nominated to succeed Tillerson. The nominee to replace Pompeo at the CIA will be current CIA Deputy Director Gina Haspel. Impacts A better-coordinated foreign policy team could help Trump prepare for his new push on North Korea-US ties. Pompeo may find as secretary of state that he disagrees more openly with Trump; the CIA director is not public-facing. Conceivably, the 2018 midterm elections could further delay Trump nominees, but secretaries could work in an acting capacity.

US diplomatic service will be downsized and degraded

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Process ◽  
The State ◽  
Direct Influence ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
The Us ◽  
Cutting Out ◽  
Foreign Policy Crises

Subject The State Department. Significance The US State Department’s third-ranking official and most senior career diplomat, Tom Shannon, announced his departure on February 1. While the 60-year old Shannon said he was stepping down for personal reasons, he is only the latest in a stream of senior career diplomats who have left since Donald Trump became president a year ago and appointed Rex Tillerson as secretary of state with a mandate to downsize the department. Impacts Minimising the benefits of diplomacy in favour of military action could exacerbate foreign policy crises and conflicts. White House heel-dragging on filling posts both 'streamlines' State and avoids congressional confirmation scrutiny of political nominees. Concerned that State wields little influence with the White House, Congress will be more assertive in the foreign policy process. Other powers -- particularly US allies -- will seek and have increased direct influence on the White House, cutting out State.

Sanders will extract price for Clinton endorsement

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Financial Regulation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Deal Making

Significance However, following Clinton's success in the delegate-rich April 29 contests, Sanders is mathematically unable to win the Democratic Party's nomination based solely on pledged delegates from the remaining primaries, setting up a period of political deal-making to build Democratic unity behind Clinton before the party convention beginning on July 25. Impacts The importance of the Supreme Court vacancy will give added impetus for each party to unite and secure the presidency. Sanders's non-interventionist leanings will not affect Clinton's hawkish foreign policy stance. Trump will adopt more populist positions on financial regulation and taxation to appeal for centrist support. Sanders may find more support for his views in a revitalised Democratic Senate majority than in a Clinton White House.

Pompeo is likely to work well with US president

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Relations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Secretary Of State ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Confirmation Hearings

Significance Senators yesterday voted 57 to 42 to confirm Pompeo as President Donald Trump's second secretary of state; some Democratic senators crossed the aisle to vote with Republican colleagues. During the confirmation hearings, at times it seemed unlikely Pompeo would gain sufficient votes in the Senate's foreign relations committee to secure its recommendation for confirmation by the full Senate. Impacts Pompeo will likely have closer and more enduring White House ties than his predecessor. Pompeo could face further criticism from the Senate foreign relations committee. 'Red-state' Democrats that voted for Pompeo and who face re-election in November's midterms may gain some voters' support. As the midterm elections near, Pompeo is likely to direct further attention to US-Russia relations.

Republican leader Kevin McCarthy has difficult role

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Republican Party ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Midterm Elections

Significance McCarthy has a difficult role within a Republican Party that remains beholden to former President Donald Trump but has elements that wish to maintain a degree of autonomy from him. The coming months, as the Democrats’ agenda moves through the House, will also test his legislative skills. Impacts Republicans only need a net gain of five seats in the 2022 midterm elections to take control of the House. The redistricting process now beginning in all 50 states should result in more winnable seats for Republicans in 2022. McCarthy’s alignment with Trump appears sufficient to prevent any Republican challenge to his becoming Speaker. As Speaker, McCarthy would conduct constant conflict with the Biden White House on most issues, with China the main exception.

US midterm elections pose challenges for Democrats

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Illegal Immigrants ◽  
Law And Order ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Presidential Nomination ◽  
The Past ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Democrats And Republicans

Significance At present, Republicans need to gain only five seats to take control of the House of Representatives and just one to control the Senate. Awareness that the party holding the White House usually loses seats in midterm elections is driving tactics among both Democrats and Republicans. Impacts Republicans are likely to rely on law and order issues that have proved politically successful for them in the past. Republicans will link Democratic 'softness' on illegal immigrants to rising crime and Biden’s approach to Mexican border security. Securing a Republican Congress may well lead Donald Trump to commit to running for the party’s 2024 presidential nomination.

Russian-US rift too great for summits to bring detente

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Nuclear Arms

Significance The White House and the Kremlin have released few details of the summit's agenda, though it is known the two presidents discussed alleged Russian election interference, Syria and Ukraine, nuclear arms and economic relations. Trump's talk of inviting Putin to Washington generated strong opposition from critics in both parties. Impacts Mueller investigation indictments full of facts and data are increasingly hard to dismiss; Putin now responds by changing the subject. Trump's political adversaries will use his Helsinki performance to underline the 'Russia factor' in the November midterm elections. A Trump-Putin meeting could happen on the margins of upcoming multilateral forums.

US Congress will seek greater foreign policy control

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Damage Control ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
The Us ◽  
Policy Control ◽  
Sticking Point

Significance The resolution was a Democratic attempt at damage control after comments by a newly elected caucus member that were perceived as anti-Semitic: the party fears being tagged as ‘anti-Israel’ before 2020’s elections. This resolution is the latest move in a brewing congressional battle over the Boycott-Divest-Sanction movement, which brings together several US anti-Israel groups. The rallying cry for this issue is the proposed Israel Anti-Boycott Act, which has 292 co-sponsors in the House and 58 in the Senate. Impacts The White House will resist congressional efforts to limit the president’s foreign policy powers. The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement will be agreed but could be delayed for final changes. Congress will seek a greater role on US North Korea, Saudi Arabia and Iran policy. US-Russia policy will be a sticking point between the Democrats and Trump White House.

US Democrats' foreign policy debates to grow

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
International Institutions ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Policy Tool ◽  
Policy Debates ◽  
Democratic Administration ◽  
New Institutions

Significance In the race to nominate a Democratic presidential candidate, one of the major dividing lines has been whether to return to the party’s 2016 agenda or advocate systemic overhaul. While the race so far has not dwelt much on foreign policy, a similar debate is being held among thought leaders. One of the main questions is what the fundamental infrastructure of US foreign policy should be if the Democrats win the White House next November -- updated liberal internationalist or ‘neo-progressive’ -- and how, therefore, to respond to precedents set by Trump. Impacts A Democratic administration would prioritise rehabilitating existing international institutions before creating new ones. This would likely mean re-establishing (if possible) the Iran nuclear talks. New institutions would be most likely for newer areas, two of these being climate change and global corruption. Economic sanctions would continue as a foreign policy tool but may be weakened.

Prospects for US foreign policy in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
International Crises ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
The Face

Subject Prospects for US foreign policy in 2016. Significance President Barack Obama will leave office in January 2017, following the election of his successor on November 8, 2016. With most of his domestic agenda stalled in the face of a hostile Republican Congress, Obama is likely to turn to the international stage in 2016 to cement his political legacy. Meanwhile, the White House will also have to manage an array of international crises during an election year.

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