US CIA is not yet immune from political pressure

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Intelligence Community ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Operational Effectiveness ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Secretary Of State ◽  
The Us

Significance Haspel was sworn in as the new director on May 21, after serving as acting director when Mike Pompeo moved to become secretary of state. Impacts The US intelligence community will expand its counterterrorism work in cyberspace. Congress will likely push for greater scrutiny of the CIA, and greater CIA transparency. Haspel will come under pressure to find a balance between operational effectiveness and CIA openness. Criticisms of Bush-era counterterrorism methods and Haspel’s role may complicate her work with concerned US partners.

Washington will rethink its foreign chip strategy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
The United States ◽  
Export Controls ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Technical Standards ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Technology Competition ◽  
Business In China

Significance Follow-on action from Washington and responses from foreign actors will shape the US government’s adversarial policy towards China in semiconductors and other strategic technologies. Impacts The Biden administration will likely conclude that broad-based diversion of the semiconductor supply chain away from China is not feasible. The United States will rely on export controls and political pressure to prevent diffusion to China of cutting-edge chip technologies. The United States will focus on persuading foreign semiconductor leaders to help develop US capabilities, thereby staying ahead of China. Washington will focus on less direct approaches to strategic technology competition with China, notably technical standards-setting. Industry leaders in the semiconductor supply chain worldwide will continue expanding business in China in less politically sensitive areas.

Crises and 'pivot' will boost US intelligence agencies

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Intelligence Community ◽  
National Security Agency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Public Scrutiny

Subject The US intelligence community in a year after purported reforms. Significance On December 29, an agreement between the United States, Japan and South Korea to share intelligence on North Korea went into effect. This ended a year in which the US intelligence community was the subject of broad domestic public scrutiny in the light of continued fallout from former National Security Agency (NSA) contractor Edward Snowden's leaks to a Senate report on the CIA's use of torture. The White House's support for reforms has been watched by tech and telecoms businesses that have lost considerable revenue from reputational damage as a result of the growing awareness of requirements on them of US intelligence activities. Impacts The Obama administration will rely on the US intelligence community as its main counterterrorist instrument. A Republican Congress will be less likely to support intelligence reforms, though only marginally so. There is no indication that the balance of power on intelligence issues between the executive and legislative branches has shifted.

US-Myanmar sanctions could be lifted in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Business Leaders ◽  
Military Rule ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Secretary Of State ◽  
The Us ◽  
Confirmation Hearings

Subject Outlook for US sanctions on Myanmar. Significance Following Myanmar's historic election that will end decades of military rule, the country's officials and business leaders are pressing for remaining US sanctions to be lifted. The issue arose during Senate confirmation hearings on December 1 for the US administration's nominee to be ambassador to Naypyidaw, Scot Marciel. On November 25 during a visit to Myanmar, Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Russel outlined pre-conditions for sanctions relief. Impacts Congressional support for the full lifting of US sanctions on Myanmar will be limited for now. Thus US citizens will continue facing restrictions on importing Myanmar-mined gems and trading with certain Myanmar banks. Lifting of US restrictions on Myanmar's jade exports will take time and demand environmental and rights improvements.

Policy scrutiny of far-right women will sharpen

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Operational Effectiveness ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us

Significance Yet their roles are frequently downplayed. Impacts Growing reliance on online radicalisation will increase the visibility and operational effectiveness of extremist women. Criminal justice responses towards women extremists will harden. Far-right extremists will exploit the #BlackLivesMatter protests and the US elections to recruit more women into white nationalist groups.

Talks will ease Kenya tensions but new upheavals loom

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
The United States ◽  
Effective Pressure ◽  
Democratic Institutions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Secretary Of State ◽  
Political Alliances ◽  
The Us

Significance The Kenyatta-Odinga meeting was related to a visit by US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. However, it appears to have been driven more by domestic politics and a desire to outflank any potential alliance between Deputy President William Ruto and Odinga’s NASA allies. NASA is fragmenting, bringing more fluidity to political alliances and underscoring the inherent uncertainty of electoral politics in Kenya. Impacts Effective pressure by Western envoys (especially the United States) improves the prospects for continued de-escalation. Tillerson’s early end to his unremarkable tour underscores a lack of interest in key African partners and will further dilute US influence. US calls for strong democratic institutions may ring hollow against African perceptions of the US president’s dismissal of these at home.

US vice president to take more active foreign role

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Secretary Of State ◽  
The Us

Significance The investigations relate to concerns that Trump abused his office by seeking to have a political rival, former Vice President Joe Biden, investigated by Ukraine, which Trump denies. It has brought into the spotlight the conduct of US policy towards Ukraine, and that has seen criticism of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. It also comes as the Trump administration’s senior foreign policy team has seen personnel shifts. Impacts Pence will focus on foreign policy issues that resonate with evangelical voters, notably Israel and Middle Eastern Christians. Pence will also focus on promoting security and human rights abroad, leaving trade policy to Trump and trade officials. Pence will throw his support and influence behind getting the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement passed, and a US-China trade deal.

A fragile agreement on global tax reform is near

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Tax Competition ◽  
Tax Reform ◽  
Developing Nations ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Tax System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
The Us

Significance Political pressure for tax reform has increased as many large tech firms, in particular, have made large profits during the pandemic, and many countries need to raise tax revenues to bolster their budgets. Impacts Once there is more certainty of the details, governments are likely to have very different views about the costs and benefits of the plan. The US proposal to extend Pillar 1 marks the start of a shift in the global tax system from source taxation towards market country taxation. Many small and developing nations will oppose the US plan to extend Pillar 2 to include limiting tax competition, as they benefit from this.

Trump will undercut the US national security apparatus

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Intelligence Community ◽  
National Security Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
The Us ◽  
Government Experience ◽  
Security Crises

Significance Former national security officials and Trump-sceptical Republican lawmakers praised McMaster's appointment as a much-needed stabilising influence on the National Security Council (NSC). Given Trump's lack of government experience, the NSC would be the prime vehicle for shepherding presidential orders through the levels of government, quashing bureaucratic battles between agencies, and helping Trump process and respond to national security crises. Impacts Trump favouring political supporters in policy matters is likely to lead to experienced officials resigning. The president may threaten a reorganisation of the intelligence community to reduce internal dissent. Taiwan, Iran, Russia, Iraq/Syria, and Israel-Palestinians policy seem likely areas of discord within Trump's governing team. The absence of trusted voices advocating restraint may lead the White House to overuse militarised responses to incidents overseas. White House efforts to quash bureaucratic leaks are likely to weaken the interagency process.

Improvement in US ties with Ankara can only go so far

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us

Significance US President Donald Trump has warmed towards Turkey, which is benefiting from the contrast with Saudi behaviour. Turkish-US cooperation in the Khashoggi affair and the release of US pastor Andrew Brunson have eased bilateral tensions after months of hostile confrontation. Impacts Ankara could make things more difficult for Riyadh in the Gulf and tensions with Saudi Arabia may become permanent. Turkish-Saudi trade links are not deep and will decline further; Turkey does not depend on Saudi energy. Turkey will not break with Iran, and will try to disguise its position on the US-Iranian rift for as long as possible. Turkish military and political pressure on the Syrian Kurds will grow despite the US-Turkish easing.

Russia could gain by staying in Open Skies Treaty

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
Secretary Of State ◽  
The Us

Significance Washington announced it was leaving the treaty on May 21, though Secretary of State Mike Pompeo indicated that this might be reviewed if Russia stopped violating the agreement. The agreement allows signatories to conduct unarmed reconnaissance flights to observe each other's heavy weapons. Impacts US withdrawal gives Russia greater freedom to locate forces closer to its European and Caucasian borders. The decision will harm European states' ability to obtain military information. Other signatories may be tempted to copy the US withdrawal.

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