US cities’ housing squeeze may prove hard to solve

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Housing Stock ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Office Work ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Housing Price Index ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Safety Risks ◽  
The Us

Subject US housing market. Significance The Case-Shiller 20-city composite housing price index hit a record high in May 2018, surpassing its previous record in 2006. However, unlike the mid-2000s, evidence suggests that the US housing market is not in a national bubble. Instead, prices are high in many cities due to an undersupply of housing. This has wider effects: by one estimate, without current land restrictions on housing development, the US economy would be 9% larger than it is now. Impacts Low-cost cities will increasingly be back-office work destinations. If rents and housing costs keep rising, consumers may make greater use of credit, raising indebtedness risks. Greater reliance on older US housing stock will mean greater maintenance costs and safety risks. The housing debate will largely be a cross-party rather than partisan issue.

US airline collusion charges could save Open Skies

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Airline Industry ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Department Of Transportation ◽  
Predatory Behaviour ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fleet Size ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Low Cost Carrier ◽  
Lock In

Subject Outlook for US investigations into airlines collusion. Significance Three carriers, United, American Airlines and Delta, account for 80% of US domestic air travel; Southwest, the leading low cost carrier (LCC) takes much of the remainder. The Department of Justice (DoJ) and the Department of Transportation (DoT) have both launched major investigations into the pricing practices of the airlines. Both regulatory moves imply that the rationalisation of the US airline industry has left passengers vulnerable to predatory behaviour, which would worsen if the US market were further closed to foreign competition. Impacts Low oil prices may provide a long-term boost to profits if airlines move to lock in new hedges. However, manufacturers will be hit hard by an economic slowdown in China, home of two of the largest airlines by fleet size. Increasing wages elsewhere in the US economy will add further pressure to airline labour costs.

scholarly journals Dynamics of the US Housing Market: A Quantal Response Statistical Equilibrium Approach

Entropy ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (11) ◽  
pp. 831 ◽  
Author(s):  
Özlem Ömer
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Maximum Entropy ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Statistical Equilibrium ◽  
Market Dynamics ◽  
Quantal Response ◽  
Housing Price Index ◽  
The Us ◽  
Equilibrium Approach

In this article, we demonstrate that a quantal response statistical equilibrium approach to the US housing market with the help of the maximum entropy method of modeling is a powerful way of revealing different characteristics of the housing market behavior before, during and after the recent housing market crash in the US. In this line, a maximum entropy approach to quantal response statistical equilibrium model (QRSE) is employed in order to model housing market dynamics in different phases of the most recent housing market cycle using the S&P Case Shiller housing price index for 20 largest- Metropolitan Regions, and Freddie Mac housing price index (FMHPI) for 367 Metropolitan Cities for the US between 2000 and 2015. Estimated model parameters provide an alternative way to understand and explain the behaviors of economic agents, and market dynamics by questioning the traditional economic theory, which takes assumption for the behavior of rational utility maximizing representative agent with self-fulfilled expectations as given.

Corporate life and death: who succumbs, who survives during disruption?

2018 ◽  
Vol 41 (6) ◽  
pp. 11-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Blitz
Keyword(s):  
Six Sigma ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Lean Six Sigma ◽  
Good News ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Life And Death ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Realistic Option ◽  
The Us

Purpose This paper provides a disruption survival guide for companies during times of macro transformation. Design/methodology/approach The research compared the S&P 500 – as proxy for the US economy – from 1996 and 2018. Of companies no longer on the list, 12 died, including two from manufacturing: Bethlehem Steel and Outboard Marine Corporation (OMC). Still, some US manufacturers survived or even thrived during the period. To understand why, the paper compares Bethlehem, which died in 2003, to US Steel, which has survived but was removed from the S&P 500 list in 2014, and to Nucor, which has stayed on the list. POSCO is also used for comparison. The OMC case adds a different industry perspective. Findings The main findings from these cases are as follows: stay fit financially and avoid overreaching in good times, use operation strategies such as Lean and Six Sigma to build a culture of continual innovation and stay close to customers to compete on the basis of differentiation, particularly if competing on price is not a realistic option. The good news is differentiation is possible even in seemingly commoditized sectors like steel. Research limitations/implications This paper contributes to the literature on differentiation as a strategy for competing with low-cost disruptors. Practical implications This paper provides insights into the use of Lean, Six Sigma and other strategies for creating a culture of continual innovation among employees, customers, suppliers and other strategic partners. And, building on this culture, to compete on the basis of value-added differentiation, particularly if competing on price is not a realistic option. Originality/value The paper cuts through complex, fast-changing, transformative macro issues – e.g., Chinese competition and trade uncertainties related to new tariffs – and provides practical, timeless insights for navigating in such times. The focus here is on strategies for competing on the basis of value-added differentiation, particularly if competing on price is not a viable option. The good news is such competition is possible even in seemingly commoditized sectors like steel.

Prospects for the US economy to end-2019

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Financial Stress ◽  
Economic Expansion ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us

Subject Prospects for the US economy to end 2019. Significance The strong US labour market and low borrowing costs for businesses and individuals are helping to sustain the decade-long economic expansion. GDP grew by more than 3% in January-March, the third quarter out of four in which it was above 3%. The lacklustre housing market, softening manufacturing sector and rising consumer financial stress may dampen economic growth in the rest of 2019, taking it to 2.3-2.5% for the year.

Lenovo’s successful acquisition of the IBM PC Division

2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (9) ◽  
pp. 32-35
Author(s):  
Mark Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Tablet Computers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Pertinent Information ◽  
Traditional Manufacturing

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze Lenovo’s successful acquisition of IBM’s PC division using Ghemawat’s (2001) CAGE framework. It was an acquisition that was so full of symbols that it is difficult to know where to begin. Lenovo’s purchase of IBM in 2005 was first seen as a sign of the rapid growth and expansion of the Chinese economy and its transformation away from the traditional manufacturing base to more high-tech areas. For doomsday merchants in the land of Uncle Sam, it foretold the end of the world domination of the US economy. Despite a considerable number of skeptics at the time, Lenovo was clearly up to the task. Such was the success of the acquisition that by 2015, Lenovo could claim to have grown into the world’s number 1 PC maker, number 3 smartphone manufacturer and number 3 in the production of tablet computers. Design/methodology/approach This paper is a case study. Findings Despite a considerable number of skeptics at the time, Lenovo was clearly up to the task. Such was the success of the acquisition that by 2015, Lenovo could claim to have grown into the world’s number 1 PC maker, number 3 smartphone manufacturer and number 3 in the production of tablet computers. Indeed, by 2014, the firm had enough confidence to add the IBM server business to its portfolio. Originality/value The briefing saves busy executives and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy-to-digest format.

Macroeconomic conditions are only an illusion, not the solution, to firm sustainability: unveiling the new dimension of stakeholder well-being

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zahid Irshad Younas ◽  
Mahvesh Khan ◽  
Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan
Keyword(s):  
Well Being ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Macroeconomic Performance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
The One

Purpose The purpose of the study is to explore the misconception that in developed countries, macroeconomic performance lead to sustainable firms or improves stakeholder well-being. The results may be the opposite or even worse. Design/methodology/approach This study examined this misconception using balanced panel data from 1,122 firms from different sectors of the US economy and data on macroeconomic performance from the World Bank. Findings The results of the one-step generalised method of moments indicate that most macroeconomic performance indicators had significant and negative impacts on firm sustainability and stakeholder well-being. Practical implications From a societal perspective, the results illustrate that the fruits of macroeconomic performance of the US economy do not reach stakeholders through firms’ sustainability. Thus, linking the economy’s macroeconomic performance with firm sustainability is vital for sustainably uplifting society and for stakeholder well-being. Originality/value From a policy perspective, this study reveals that the greater focus on macroeconomic performance in the USA over the past decades has resulted in lower firm sustainability because of the malfunctioning of social, economic, environmental and governance factors. This has negatively influenced stakeholder well-being in the country.

Toward a history of housing market analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 632-647 ◽  
Author(s):  
William C. Baer
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Urban Society ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Market Analysis ◽  
Ancient Rome ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Urban Market ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
History Of

Purpose This paper aims to relate early history of housing conceptualizations and market analysis in the Anglosphere (Britain, the USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand). Historians are ignorant of them but clear market analyses had early beginnings in every urban society for developing and accommodating growing populations. Design/methodology/approach Historiography. Findings Aspects of market analysis, especially appraisal and rudimentary approaches to the housing market in the Anglosphere, can be traced back to ancient Rome, housing market conceptualizations to Dr Nicholas Barbon and seventeenth-century London’s first population and housing boom and market analysis techniques in the USA at its founding, when Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand Perigor was the first to refine them and write them up in 1794-1796. The US next made major advances in the 1930s. The overall trend has been from inferred analyses to fundamental (derived) analyses, emphasizing “quantifiable data.” Practical implications This paper elicits researcher’s professional awareness that each nation has an implicit history of its early development practices and techniques. Originality/value The time frame of most housing market analysts is the recent past, the present and the future. But how enduring are their concerns? Do operational values in a housing market reflect historical epochs, or are there some universalities? Furthermore, most urban historians are ignorant of urban market dynamics. It does not occur to them that some of the dynamics that analysts attempt to capture today might always have been inherent in the urban built environment, regardless of era or urbanized part of the globe under consideration.

Property investor decisions using income and rental ratio signals

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Billie Ann Brotman
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Consumer Sentiment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Income Ratio ◽  
Real Estate Prices

PurposeThis paper, a case study, aims to consider whether the income ratio and rental ratio tracks the formation of residential housing price spikes and their collapse. The ratios are measuring the risk associated with house price stability. They may signal whether a real estate investor should consider purchasing real property, continue holding it or consider selling it. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (Dallas Fed) calculates and publishes income ratios for Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries to measure “irrational exuberance,” which is a measure of housing price risk for a given country's housing market. The USA is a member of the organization. The income ratio idea is being repurposed to act as a buy/sell signal for real estate investors.Design/methodology/approachThe income ratio calculated by the Dallas Fed and this case study's ratio were date-stamped and graphed to determine whether the 2006–2008 housing “bubble and burst” could be visually detected. An ordinary least squares regression with the data transformed into logs and a regression with structural data breaks for the years 1990 through 2019 were modeled using the independent variables income ratio, rent ratio and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The descriptive statistics show a gradual increase in the ratios prior to exposure to an unexpected, exogenous financial shock, which took several months to grow and collapse. The regression analysis with breaks indicates that the income ratio can predict changes in housing prices using a lead of 2 months.FindingsThe gradual increases in the ratios with predetermine limits set by the real estate investor may trigger a sell decision when a specified rate is reached for the ratios even when housing prices are still rising. The independent variables were significant, but the rent ratio had the correct sign only with the regression with time breaks model was used. The housing spike using the Dallas Fed's income ratio and this study's income ratio indicated that the housing boom and collapse occurred rapidly. The boom does not appear to be a continuous housing price increase followed by a sudden price drop when ratio analysis is used. The income ratio is significant through time, but the rental ratio and Consumer Sentiment Index are insignificant for multiple-time breaks.Research limitations/implicationsInvestors should consider the relative prices of residential housing in a neighborhood when purchasing a property coupled with income and rental ratio trends that are taking place in the local market. High relative income ratios may signal that when an unexpected adverse event occurs the housing market may enter a state of crisis. The relative housing prices to income ratio indicates there is rising housing price stability risk. Aggregate data for the country are used, whereas real estate prices are also significantly impacted by local conditions.Practical implicationsRatio trends might enable real estate investors and homeowners to determine when to sell real estate investments prior to a price collapse and preserve wealth, which would otherwise result in the loss of equity. Higher exuberance ratios should result in an increase in the discount rate, which results in lower valuations as measured by the formula net operating income dividend by the discount rate. It can also signal when to start reinvesting in real estate, because real estate prices are rising, and the ratios are relative low compared to income.Social implicationsThe graphical descriptive depictions seem to suggest that government intervention into the housing market while a spike is forming may not be possible due to the speed with which a spike forms and collapses. Expected income declines would cause the income ratios to change and signal that housing prices will start declining. Both the income and rental ratios in the US housing market have continued to increase since 2008.Originality/valueA consumer sentiment variable was added to the analysis. Prior researchers have suggested adding a consumer sentiment explanatory variable to the model. The results generated for this variable were counterintuitive. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) price index results signaled a change during a different year than when the S&P/Case–Shiller Home Price Index is used. Many prior studies used the FHFA price index. They emphasized regulatory issues associated with changing exuberance ratio levels. This case study applies these ideas to measure relative increases in risk, which should impact the discount rate used to estimate the intrinsic value of a residential property.

Modelling sectoral spillovers in the USA (1992–2015)

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 561-595
Author(s):  
Konstantinos N. Konstantakis ◽  
Panayotis G. Michaelides ◽  
Theofanis Papageorgiou ◽  
Theodoros Daglis
Keyword(s):  
Information Technology ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Robustness Analysis ◽  
Autoregressive Process ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis research paper uses a novel methodological approach to investigate the spillover effects among the key sectors of the US economy.Design/methodology/approachThe paper links the US sectors via a node theoretic scheme based on a general equilibrium framework, whereas it estimates the general equilibrium equation as a Global Vector Autoregressive process, taking into consideration the potential existence of dominant units.FindingsBased on our findings, the dominant sector in the US economy, for the period 1992–2015, is the sector of information technology, finance and communications, a fact that gives credence to the view that the US economy is a service-driven economy. In addition, the US economy seems to benefit by the increased labour mobility across knowledge-intensive sectors, thus avoiding the ‘employment trap’ which in turn enabled the US economy to overcome the financial crisis of 2007.Originality/valueFirstly, the paper models by means of a network approach which is based on a general equilibrium framework, the linkages between the US sectors while treating the sector of information, technology, communications and finance as dominant, as dictated by its degree of centrality in the network structure. Secondly, the paper offers a robustness analysis regarding both the existence and the identification of dominant sectors (nodes) in the US economy. Thirdly, the paper studies a wide period, namely 1992–2015, fully capturing the recent global recession, while acknowledging the impact of the global crisis through the introduction of the relevant exogenous dummy variables; Lastly and most importantly, it is the first study to apply the GVAR approach in a network general equilibrium framework at the sectoral level.

scholarly journals Is there a bubble in the Swedish housing market?

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 32-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maher Asal
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Test Procedure ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
User Cost ◽  
Return To Equilibrium ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Factors Affecting

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the presence of a housing bubble using Swedish data from 1986Q1-2016Q4 by using various methods. Design/methodology/approach First, the authors use affordability indicators and asset-pricing approaches, including the price-to-income ratio, price-to-rent ratio and user cost, supplemented by a qualitative discussion of other factors affecting house prices. Second, the authors use cointegration techniques to compute the fundamental (or long-run) price, which is then compared with the actual price to test the degree of Sweden’s housing price bubble during the studied period. Third, they apply the univariate right-tailed unit root test procedure to capture bursting bubbles and to date-stamp bubbles. Findings The authors find evidence for rational housing bubbles with explosive behavioral components beginning in 2004. These bubbles do not continuously diverge but instead periodically revert to their fundamental value. However, the deviation is persistent, and without any policy correction, it takes decades for real house prices to return to equilibrium. Originality/value The policy implication is that monetary policy designed to contain mortgage demand and thereby prevent burst episodes in the housing market must address external imbalances, as revealed in real exchange rate undervaluation. It is unlikely that current policies will stop the rise of house prices, as the growth of mortgage credit, improvement in Sweden’s international competitiveness and the path of interest rates are much more important factors.

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