Hungary will be at risk from too-loose monetary policy

Subject Central Europe’s resilience to EM sell-off. Significance Central Europe’s economies have withstood intense recent selling pressure in emerging markets (EM), the longest sell-off since the 2008 financial crisis. A confluence of idiosyncratic and generic vulnerabilities has significantly undermined investor sentiment towards EM assets as a whole over the past several months. Yet the Polish zloty, one of the most liquid EM currencies, has risen by 2.6% against the dollar since end-May, and Hungary’s ten-year local bond yields are still significantly below their levels in the aftermath of the ‘taper tantrum’ in May 2013. Impacts Despite the 27% decline in Turkish equities since end-June, negligible trade links with Central Europe will limit financial contagion. In Central-Eastern Europe, Romania will be vulnerable because of its wide fiscal and current account deficits. Ten-year US Treasury yields are trading above 3%, increasing the risk of a sell-off in global debt markets if yields rise more sharply.

Subject Efficacy of monetary policy at the zero lower bound. Significance Fiscal packages tempered the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis while central bankers alleviated threats to the global financial system with unconventional monetary policy, steering economies into calmer waters than might otherwise have been the case. However, today there is no quick restoration of robust and sustainable global growth in prospect, leaving policymakers questioning what succeeds monetary easing. Impacts Further easing may be counterproductive if it is seen as a signal of continuing risk, inducing greater safe-haven flows. High public debts will leave little scope for more fiscal stimulus. Transparent processes for addressing the problems of excess capacity, debt restructuring and corruption are needed to restore confidence.


Subject The prospects for Emerging Europe assets. Significance Despite record levels of outflows from emerging market (EM) bond and equity funds in 2015, the financial markets of Central-Eastern Europe (CEE) have remained remarkably resilient. They are likely to continue to outperform those of Latin America and Emerging Asia next year, because of a combination of relatively strong fundamentals and liquidity support from the ECB. Impacts Investor sentiment towards developing economies is now shaped almost entirely by dramatic declines in commodity prices. US monetary policy will now prove secondary to the plunge in oil prices. Growth in the CEE region picked up significantly this year and is still expected to remain relatively robust in 2016.


2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 227-244
Author(s):  
Pablo Arboleda

For the past five decades, hundreds of unfinished public works have been erected in Italy as the result of inconsistent planning and the presence of corruption and organised crime. A third of these constructions are located in Sicily alone, and so, in 2007, a group of artists labelled this phenomenon an architectural style: ‘ Incompiuto Siciliano’. Through this creative approach, the artists’ objective is to put incompletion back on the agenda by viewing it from a heritage perspective. This article reviews the different approaches that the artists have envisaged to handle unfinished public works; whether to finish them, demolish them, leave them as they are or opt for an ‘active’ arrested decay. The critical implications of these strategies are analysed in order to, ultimately, conclude that incompletion is such a vast and complex issue that it will surely have more than one single solution; but rather a combination of these four. This is important because it opens up a debate on the broad spectrum of possibilities to tackle incompletion – establishing this as one of the key contemporary urban themes not only in Italy but also in those countries affected by unfinished geographies after the 2008 financial crisis.


2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 708-728
Author(s):  
Olivier Voirol

Abstract The neoliberal agenda is based on the rejection of social objectivism and social reason, in favor of individual preferences and subjective values. Reforms carried out under this agenda destroy institutions and practices of solidarity. While the 2008 financial crisis has confronted neoliberalism with a legitimation crisis, an alternative agenda has yet to emerge. In the past decades, this “void” gave birth to the implementation of “regressive communities”. Instead of challenging the neoliberal agenda these communities function as mere authoritarian extensions. By rejecting social issues and defending cultural values they display contempt for social objectivity and reason. A path beyond the neoliberal “all market” approach as well as the subsequent triggerering of “regressive communities” is nowadays sought by social reconstruction through solidarity.


Author(s):  
Fabrizio Striani

The concept of green economy has received significant international attention over the past few years as a tool to address the 2008 financial crisis. Governments today are seeking effective ways to lead their nations out of the crisis and the green economy (in its various forms) has been proposed as a means for catalyzing renewed national policy development and international cooperation and support for sustainable development. The aim of this article is to define and highlight the importance of the green (blue) economy and compare it with the so-called greed economy. This article is divided into different sections: after a brief introduction is a systematic literature review; the second section is about sustainable development and the green economy concept; the third is about the green economy and blue economy concept; and the fourth compares greed economy to green (blue) economy. Finally, the author will draw conclusions.


2020 ◽  
Vol 46 (7) ◽  
pp. 955-975 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dorra Ellouze

PurposeThe purpose of the paper is to investigate the role of customers and employees in the buffer effect of CSR around the 2008 financial crisis in the European context.Design/methodology/approachUsing a sample of 323 European firms listed in STOXX Europe 600 Index, different models are estimated to test whether the effect of CSR ratings on firms' relationships with their customers and employees could be different during the 2008 financial crisis relative to the pre-crisis and post-crisis periods.FindingsThe paper shows that CSR rating has a significantly negative impact on firms' accounts receivable and a significantly positive effect on employee productivity during the crisis period (from 2007 to 2009). However, there is no significant effect of CSR rating during the non-crisis periods. These results suggest that during negative events, customers are willing to continue supporting high-CSR firms by paying their invoices faster. Furthermore, these firms benefit from higher productivity of their employees who are willing to work harder in periods of uncertainty.Research limitations/implicationsFirms should invest in CSR practices to maintain strong and cooperative relationships with their customers and employees. Also, investors should choose firms engaging in more social capital. Moreover, policymakers should encourage implementing CSR practices which act as an insurance-like protection in times of negative events.Originality/valueThis paper adds to the previous studies by investigating whether the cooperative role of customers and employees can explain the buffer role of CSR around the crisis. Furthermore, it considers companies located in several European countries for a long period (from 2004 to 2012) to compare periods of crisis and non-crisis.


Significance Expectations that the Fed will refrain from hiking its benchmark rates from its target range of 0.25-0.5% and that the Japanese central bank will provide further stimulus are suppressing volatility in financial markets and fuelling demand for risk assets. However, evidence that "overburdened" monetary policy is losing its efficacy triggered a sell-off in bonds and equities on September 9, increasing the scope for sharper price falls as investors worry that central banks have run out of ammunition. Impacts Services expanded in August at their slowest pace since 2010, making it less likely that the Fed will raise interest rates this month. EM bond and equity mutual funds have enjoyed a surge in inflows since the Brexit vote as yield-hungry investors pour money into risk assets Oil, a key determinant of investor sentiment, will stay below 50 dollars/barrel unless major producers agree measures to stabilise prices.


Subject Legislation on insolvency in the United Arab Emirates. Significance The long-awaited federal bankruptcy law came into effect on December 29, three months after its publication. The 2008 financial crisis highlighted the need to adopt comprehensive insolvency legislation, after many debtors fled the country to avoid penal consequences -- including time in prison -- when their businesses crashed. However, despite low oil prices it was not until 2016 that steps to formalise the bankruptcy law were expedited, with the aim of promoting foreign investment and business development. Impacts Foreign direct investment in the non-oil sector will increase. Some financial institutions could be slow to take account of the new legislation. Other Gulf Arab countries may look to the UAE bankruptcy law as a model.


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