West Africa cocoa cooperation may prove fragile

Subject West Africa cocoa outlook. Significance Strong demand for chocolate is helping to lessen the global cocoa supply glut. This could underpin a more stable recovery in prices amid bumper crops in the world’s top two cocoa growers, the Ivory Coast and Ghana. On the supply side, efforts to reduce production will likely face headwinds over practical fiscal and livelihoods considerations. Impacts The stability of global consumption growth may be clouded by one-off domestic factors driving growth in some countries. Output restrictions in Ivory Coast and Ghana may be undermined if planned Nigerian and Cameroonian increases of cocoa materialise. Quality issues will be a natural hedge against smuggling in Nigeria and Cameroon where beans are sold at a discount.

Significance While the overall number of incidents is fewer than a dozen since the rise of the region's jihadist insurgencies in the early 2010s, the trend lends credence to growing warnings about the jihadist threat to coastal West African countries. Concern has focused on Ivory Coast and Benin, but there is also nervousness about Ghana, Togo and even Senegal. Impacts Western governments will boost security assistance to coastal states. Intelligence sharing and joint operations will not forestall cross-border hit-and-run attacks. Most regional states will resort to security-focused responses whose abuses drive jihadist recruitment.


Subject West Africa ports development. Significance Economic growth and rising trade volumes with Asian countries are straining West Africa's commercial port capacities. Various port infrastructure projects are underway as states compete to become shipping gateways for the region. Ever larger container ships are also forcing states to offer deeper water berth ports. Ivory Coast, Ghana and Nigeria are leading the race. Impacts Low oil prices should not affect port expansion as the costs are borne by competing private sector operators. The question of whether the operator-driven port model delivers equivalent benefits to individual economies will grow as profits rise. European private sector port operators continue to dominate, but competition from Asian companies such as DP World is growing.


Subject Outlook for Islamist militancy in West Africa. Significance Over the past four months Islamist armed groups have carried out high-profile attacks in Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast and Mali. Such incidents are not new in the Sahel, but the methods and scale have changed. To some extent this mirrors changes seen in Nigeria, Kenya, the Middle East and Europe, where attackers explicitly target civilians in a bid to attract media attention. Impacts The risk of further attacks is unlikely to shift positive investor sentiment towards Ivory Coast, which is driven by strong GDP growth. Airport security will likely come under fresh scrutiny given recent bombings and hijackings in Somalia and Egypt respectively. Cameroon is vulnerable to further attacks given its involvement in the regional anti-Boko Haram force.


Subject West Africa cocoa prospects. Significance Global cocoa markets are expected to remain oversupplied during the 2017/18 planting season, with Ivory Coast and Ghana -- which together account for 60% of world supplies -- expected to produce 1.9 million tonnes and 850,000 tonnes respectively. Thereafter, the slump in prices could deter investments in plantations, particularly in Ivory Coast where the farm gate price has been slashed. This could could sow the seeds of a new boom cycle -- especially if it compounds longer-term supply bottlenecks that have resulted from underinvestment in rehabilitating ageing and diseased tree stocks. Impacts Deforestation from cocoa farming will come under increased scrutiny as a result of international goals to combat climate change. Health trends in Western markets could reduce structural appetite for cocoa products amid flagging demand in emerging markets. Farmers are likely to switch to other crops like rubber and palm oil if prices fail to recover quickly.


Subject Prospects for West Africa in 2018. Significance Ruling coalitions will emphasise economic recovery (Nigeria) and foreign investment gains (Ivory Coast), while fragile transitions beckon for post-conflict states (Sierra Leone). Militant terrorist threats are plaguing countries across the region (Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Nigeria), heaping added pressure on ruling alliances to improve counter-terrorism preparedness.


Subject Outlook for cocoa production in West Africa. Significance Erratic rainfall and outbreaks of black pod disease in Ghana, along with ethical concerns in the Ivory Coast, are driving market fears of global cocoa shortfalls for the coming 2015-16 harvesting season. Anticipating a supply crunch, cocoa futures on the London-based ICE Futures Europe and the New York-based ICE Futures US exchanges today traded at highs of 2.21 pounds per metric tonne (MT) and 3.28 dollars per MT respectively. Impacts The expansion of French retailers such as Carrefour in Ivory Coast should provide opportunities for marketing locally produced chocolate. Opposition to genetically modified cocoa crops could hamper their adoption in Ghana, marring climate resilience initiatives. If effective, clampdowns on poor labour conditions in Ivory Coast could reduce remittance flows to poorer neighbouring states. Firms providing accreditation services in response to rising demand for 'ethical' cocoa could be hampered by poor data.


Subject Prospects for West Africa in 2019. Significance Insecurity is weighing on the region’s most significant poll in Nigeria, while new terrorist fronts are testing government popularity in Burkina Faso. The conclusion of an IMF programme will raise profligacy fears in Ghana, while rivals will vie to replace ill or outgoing leaders in Gabon and Ivory Coast.


Subject AQIM assessment. Significance Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has garnered media attention over the past year with a string of 'spectacular' attacks against Westerners in West Africa: with attacks in Bamako, Mali in late 2015, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, in January 2016, and Grand Bassam in the Ivory Coast in March. Its increasing range of operations raises questions about the group's organisational structure and its strategy. Impacts More terrorist attacks in North and West Africa will adversely affect tourism in those regions. This would particularly affect Tunisia, Ivory Coast, Senegal and Egypt. The resurgence of AQIM could also mean that it increasingly entrenches itself in Libya too.


Subject Jihadists' coastal threat. Significance Deteriorating security and widening jihadist control in eastern Burkina Faso, combined with the wider security crisis in the Sahel region as a whole, have raised credible fears that jihadist violence and other security crises could spread into coastal West African countries (Benin, Ghana, Ivory Coast and Togo). Sporadic terrorism has occurred in some of those countries in recent years, notably the attack on an Ivorian resort in March 2016 and a kidnapping in Benin’s Pendjari National Park in May 2019. Yet there is still more reason for caution than alarm when it comes to predicting the spread of jihadism in West Africa, given the Malian and Burkinabe insurgencies took years to unfold. Impacts Regional governments may look to increase assistance to President Marc Christian Roch Kabore’s administration ahead of the 2020 polls. Joint security efforts involving Burkina Faso and its coastal neighbours will prove piecemeal given their sporadic, underdeveloped nature. A 2018 joint security initiative and resulting arrests suggest Benin and Togo may be the more vulnerable to new jihadist infiltration.


2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 365-394 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Isabel Sánchez-Hernández ◽  
Luísa Cagica Carvalho ◽  
Inna Sousa Paiva

Purpose Corporate social responsibility orientation (CSRO) is considered a crucial strategy to enhance long-term competitiveness around the world, and it is starting to be a broader issue in Africa. Based on recent works addressing the CSRO–performance relationship in countries outside the African continent, this paper aims to assess CRSO in North-West Africa. Design/methodology/approach In this study a questionnaire was distributed among 122 managers in two countries in North-West Africa: Guinea-Bissau and the Ivory Coast. Partial least squares (PLS) structural equation modelling (SEM) is used to assess the path or relationships for the North-West African context. Findings The results show that there is a generally positive perception of the economic, social and environmental dimensions of CSRO, although special emphasis is laid on the economic and social issues, mainly when they are related to human resources. The study also revealed the important role of innovation as mediator between CSRO and firm performance. Practical implications The study points out the role of managers in promoting a culture of social innovation by focussing on the CSR philosophy for improving the competitive success of African businesses. Social implications The social, economic and legal contexts of Guinea-Bissau and the Ivory Coast are vulnerable. The findings raise concerns about whether governments and regulatory efforts improve the development of the strategies towards social responsibility of African firms and whether they also increase the role of the firms in producing positive externalities to the market through CSRO. Originality/value Very few studies have investigated CSRO in Africa. Aiming to switch from the current CSRO in developed countries to an African perspective of CSRO, this paper contributes to filling the existing gap through the study of managers’ perceptions about CSR in two countries in North-West Africa: Guinea-Bissau and the Ivory Coast.


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