Al-Qaida to dominate jihadi landscape in Sahara-Sahel

Subject AQIM assessment. Significance Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has garnered media attention over the past year with a string of 'spectacular' attacks against Westerners in West Africa: with attacks in Bamako, Mali in late 2015, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, in January 2016, and Grand Bassam in the Ivory Coast in March. Its increasing range of operations raises questions about the group's organisational structure and its strategy. Impacts More terrorist attacks in North and West Africa will adversely affect tourism in those regions. This would particularly affect Tunisia, Ivory Coast, Senegal and Egypt. The resurgence of AQIM could also mean that it increasingly entrenches itself in Libya too.

Subject Outlook for Islamist militancy in West Africa. Significance Over the past four months Islamist armed groups have carried out high-profile attacks in Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast and Mali. Such incidents are not new in the Sahel, but the methods and scale have changed. To some extent this mirrors changes seen in Nigeria, Kenya, the Middle East and Europe, where attackers explicitly target civilians in a bid to attract media attention. Impacts The risk of further attacks is unlikely to shift positive investor sentiment towards Ivory Coast, which is driven by strong GDP growth. Airport security will likely come under fresh scrutiny given recent bombings and hijackings in Somalia and Egypt respectively. Cameroon is vulnerable to further attacks given its involvement in the regional anti-Boko Haram force.


Subject Prospects for West Africa in 2018. Significance Ruling coalitions will emphasise economic recovery (Nigeria) and foreign investment gains (Ivory Coast), while fragile transitions beckon for post-conflict states (Sierra Leone). Militant terrorist threats are plaguing countries across the region (Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Nigeria), heaping added pressure on ruling alliances to improve counter-terrorism preparedness.


Subject Prospects for West Africa in 2019. Significance Insecurity is weighing on the region’s most significant poll in Nigeria, while new terrorist fronts are testing government popularity in Burkina Faso. The conclusion of an IMF programme will raise profligacy fears in Ghana, while rivals will vie to replace ill or outgoing leaders in Gabon and Ivory Coast.


Significance Under Droukdel's leadership, AQIM exerted influence among jihadist groups in North and West Africa and provided expertise and funds that facilitated high-profile terrorist attacks and kidnappings. AQIM has yet to announce a successor, but after 13 years its structure is probably resilient enough to survive the death of its leader. In the Sahel, AQIM has been somewhat eclipsed by the Group for Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), an al-Qaida affiliate with a presence in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Impacts JNIM poses a greater threat than AQIM to Sahelian countries. AQIM's residual presence in Algeria, Tunisia and Libya is not an immediate threat, but means it may be able to exploit future cleavages. The threat to the oil sector will continue to decline owing to a shift in the focus of attacks from the Maghreb to the Sahel.


Subject Jihadists' coastal threat. Significance Deteriorating security and widening jihadist control in eastern Burkina Faso, combined with the wider security crisis in the Sahel region as a whole, have raised credible fears that jihadist violence and other security crises could spread into coastal West African countries (Benin, Ghana, Ivory Coast and Togo). Sporadic terrorism has occurred in some of those countries in recent years, notably the attack on an Ivorian resort in March 2016 and a kidnapping in Benin’s Pendjari National Park in May 2019. Yet there is still more reason for caution than alarm when it comes to predicting the spread of jihadism in West Africa, given the Malian and Burkinabe insurgencies took years to unfold. Impacts Regional governments may look to increase assistance to President Marc Christian Roch Kabore’s administration ahead of the 2020 polls. Joint security efforts involving Burkina Faso and its coastal neighbours will prove piecemeal given their sporadic, underdeveloped nature. A 2018 joint security initiative and resulting arrests suggest Benin and Togo may be the more vulnerable to new jihadist infiltration.


Significance While the overall number of incidents is fewer than a dozen since the rise of the region's jihadist insurgencies in the early 2010s, the trend lends credence to growing warnings about the jihadist threat to coastal West African countries. Concern has focused on Ivory Coast and Benin, but there is also nervousness about Ghana, Togo and even Senegal. Impacts Western governments will boost security assistance to coastal states. Intelligence sharing and joint operations will not forestall cross-border hit-and-run attacks. Most regional states will resort to security-focused responses whose abuses drive jihadist recruitment.


Author(s):  
Marius Schneider ◽  
Vanessa Ferguson

Burkina Faso is a landlocked country in West Africa, surrounded by six countries: Benin, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Mali, Niger, and Togo. It has an area of 274,200 square kilometres (km) and has a population of 18.6 million inhabitants. Its capital is Ouagadougou, where the biggest airport of Burkina Faso, Ouagadougou International Airport, is found. By 2021, a new airport should be operational at Dosin, located 30 km north from the capital. Having no access to the sea, Burkina Faso relies on the ports of its neighbouring countries for its commercial exchanges. Eighty per cent of the external trade of Burkina Faso is conducted by sea. The main ports available to Burkina Faso are Cotonou, Lomé, Téma, Takoradi, and Abidjan. In practice, the autonomous port of Abidjan is the main port of maritime entry and exit into Burkina Faso, having regained its lost market share caused by the crisis in Ivory Coast in September 2002. International roads link Ouagadougou to all neighbouring ports and a railway line operates between Ouagadougou and Abidjan.


2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdoulaye K. Kone ◽  
Doumbo Safiatou Niaré ◽  
Martine Piarroux ◽  
Arezki Izri ◽  
Pierre Marty ◽  
...  

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is the most serious form of human leishmaniasis. VL is understudied in West Africa. The increasing number of patients at-risk, including persons living with HIV and other chronic immunosuppressive diseases, and likely underreporting of VL related to diagnostic challenges advocate for review of existing data to understand VL regional epidemiology. Our review aims to describe the clinical characteristics and epidemiology of Human VL (HVL) in West Africa. We conducted a literature search to identify peer-reviewed articles and grey literature sources using the search terms “Visceral leishmaniasis West Africa”, “Leishmania donovani West Africa”; and “Leishmania infantum West Africa”. Thirty published articles report HVL from seven countries, including The Gambia, Niger, Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Togo, Burkina Faso, and Guinea Bissau. Three countries report cases of Canine Visceral Leishmaniasis (CVL), including The Gambia, Senegal, and Burkina Faso. Niger, Nigeria, and Ivory Coast report the greatest number of HVL cases. As VL is present in West Africa, active surveillance, increased diagnostic capacity, and studies of vectors and reservoirs are essential to better understand VL epidemiology in the region.


Subject West Africa ports development. Significance Economic growth and rising trade volumes with Asian countries are straining West Africa's commercial port capacities. Various port infrastructure projects are underway as states compete to become shipping gateways for the region. Ever larger container ships are also forcing states to offer deeper water berth ports. Ivory Coast, Ghana and Nigeria are leading the race. Impacts Low oil prices should not affect port expansion as the costs are borne by competing private sector operators. The question of whether the operator-driven port model delivers equivalent benefits to individual economies will grow as profits rise. European private sector port operators continue to dominate, but competition from Asian companies such as DP World is growing.


Subject Europe's airline industry. Significance Despite good performance over the past year, the underlying condition of the European airline industry has not changed. Major carriers are still facing competitive challenges from long-haul airlines based in the Gulf, especially Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways, and from the European low-cost carrier (LCC) sector. Impacts The fallout from recent terrorist attacks could hit the industry's fragile recovery. Labour unrest in France will affect Air France, as its pilots voted on May 30 to go on strike over pay conditions. A UK exit from the EU would force its airlines, some of the most efficient in Europe, to reconsider the focus of their operations. New opportunities may arise from the Commission's efforts to negotiate aviation agreements with such countries as Brazil as well as ASEAN.


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