Ortega will see out his term in Nicaragua

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Economic Decline ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legal Challenges ◽  
The Government ◽  
Outward Migration ◽  
Opposition Movement

Subject Nicaragua unrest. Significance Protests were held across Nicaragua on April 18 to mark the first anniversary of the beginning of demonstrations against President Daniel Ortega and his government. In the year since, the government has successfully consolidated its control through a combination of security crackdowns and legal challenges to the protests, effectively extinguishing the opposition movement for now. With Ortega’s position secure, he looks set to remain in power until the 2021 elections at least, ignoring opposition calls for early elections to resolve the conflict. Impacts Economic decline will fuel outward migration, with the effects being felt primarily by neighbouring Costa Rica. Recent sanctions citing the Nicaragua Canal may indicate that further investors or individuals involved in that project could be targeted. Companies with links to Caracas could also be targeted, with Washington using Nicaragua to put pressure on Venezuela and vice versa.

Uganda’s opposition will gain ground despite poll loss

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
National Politics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legal Challenges ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance The opposition has rejected the results and is preparing legal challenges to Museveni’s victory. Impacts NRM internal cohesion will fray as Museveni becomes a more polarising figure in national politics. The NRM will increasingly try to co-opt opponents to neutralise the growing momentum and collaboration among opposition parties. The government will likely launch developmental efforts to tackle youth unemployment and thus avert unrest.

Economic demise set to continue, but farming is a hope

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
International Aid ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Economic Decline ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Political Implications ◽  
External Demand ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The hryvnia crisis, which has seen the currency's value plummet, has deepened. However, as reported by Reuters, the NBU decision was suddenly reversed following heavy criticism from Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who said the move was bad for the economy. Overall, Ukraine's economy continues to be weak and vulnerable to shocks. The local economy had already been struggling for most of 2012-13, owing largely to weak external demand and deteriorating trade relations with Russia. However, the political turmoil that the country found itself in soon after the February 2014 change of power exacerbated these troubles significantly. Impacts Continued economic decline will prompt the government to take new unpopular belt-tightening measures in order to get international aid. Rapid economic reforms increase the risk of mass social discontent with far-reaching political implications. Should key merchandise exports fall further, producers could face an effective loss of their main markets.

Costa Rica fiscal reform looks doomed to fail

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Fiscal Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Wage Increases

Subject Fiscal reform protests. Significance President Carlos Alvarado is facing his most severe test since taking office in May, with his efforts to pass a long-awaited fiscal reform sparking strikes and protests across the country. Although the government has initiated a dialogue with trade unions, sustained opposition means that the fiscal reform is likely to be watered down substantially. Impacts Transport disruption will affect regional trade, compounding the transit problems caused by unrest in Nicaragua. The national strike’s success may encourage more such actions in future, potentially over public-sector wage increases. Alvarado’s weakness will increase the dominance of rival political parties in the legislature.

Nicaragua set for further turbulence in 2020

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Organization Of American States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Pressure ◽  
American States ◽  
Outward Migration

Subject Unrest in 2020. Significance More than 18 months after protests began in Nicaragua, President Daniel Ortega remains in office and appears to have consolidated his position. Despite ongoing international pressure, particularly from the Organization of American States (OAS), he appears unwilling to make concessions to opposition protesters. While his repressive policies have helped perpetuate his regime, they provide no outlet for dissent, raising the risk that protests will explode again in 2020. Impacts Extended Temporary Protected Status will offer some economic relief, keeping remittances flowing from US-based Nicaraguans in 2020. Mounting pressure could force the ruling Sandinistas to look for a successor to 74-year-old Ortega. Ongoing repression will continue to encourage outward migration, primarily to neighbouring Costa Rica.

Pressure grows for Hernandez’s resignation in Honduras

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Central America ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Outward Migration

Significance Three months after unrest flared in Honduras, President Juan Orlando Hernandez remains under pressure. While protests have decreased in frequency, they remain a concern to the government, especially given the protesters’ increasing focus on corruption issues. Ongoing tensions will hit investment, weighing on economic growth that could help ease some of the protesters’ grievances. Impacts Ongoing unrest and weakening economic prospects may encourage more outward migration, especially towards the United States. Washington’s decision to cut funding to Central America will further weigh on Hernandez’s ability to fund economic initiatives. Calls to extend the mandate of the mission to fight impunity and corruption suggest protests are now focusing on anti-corruption.

Malawi’s Mutharika faces poll dispute storm

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Electoral System ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
Democratic Progressive Party ◽  
Court Cases ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legal Challenges ◽  
Elite Level ◽  
The Government ◽  
Progressive Party

Significance Incumbent President Peter Mutharika of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) narrowly won re-election, ahead of the main opposition candidates, Lazarus Chakwera of the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and former Vice-President Saulos Chilima of the United Transformation Movement (UTM). The elections were marred by accusations of rigging, and both Chakwera and Chilima have launched court cases to overturn the result amid sizable post-poll protests. Impacts The opposition has ruled out power-sharing, but this may re-emerge as a compromise option should legal challenges fail. Opposition and civil society groups will increase calls for an amendment to the electoral system, with likely increased public backing. International donors will maintain pressure on the government over persistent budget overruns and elite-level corruption.

Costa Rica protests to hinder Alvarado’s reforms

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Value Added Tax ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Form Part ◽  
Evangelical Movement ◽  
The Government

Significance The demonstrations form part of a broader backlash against the government’s newly introduced value-added tax (VAT) and indicate the depth of popular feeling building against President Carlos Alvarado. Impacts The risk of watering down the new VAT regime will raise concerns among investors about the government’s commitment to fiscal rigour. Delaying VAT implementation would also force the government to cut social spending in order to hit its fiscal deficit goals. The evangelical movement will demonstrate its strength in further protests throughout Alvarado’s term.

Drug haul highlights Costa Rica’s security challenges

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Drug Trafficking ◽  
The United States ◽  
Costa Rican ◽  
Security Strategy ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Challenges ◽  
The Government ◽  
New Infrastructure

Subject Costa Rica drugs. Significance Costa Rican police on February 15 seized more than five tonnes of cocaine in a single operation -- the country’s largest-ever drugs seizure. The haul underlines the extent to which transnational drug-trafficking organisations have infiltrated the country, compounding concerns about related impacts on crime. The government of President Carlos Alvarado is currently implementing a new security strategy, but it is unclear how effective this will be in combating drug gangs. Impacts Costa Rica will seek extra security funding from partners such as the United States. Violence in neighbouring Nicaragua will exacerbate the pressures facing security forces along the border. The Limon region will be a bellwether for security trends as new infrastructure opens up the region.

Jordan’s Muslim Brotherhood will stress moderation

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Local Politics ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Opposition Movement

Subject The Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan. Significance After facing fragmentation in 2015, the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan (MBJ) sought to re-engage in local politics. The September 2016 electoral success of its political wing, the Islamic Action Front (IAF), revitalised its role as a leading opposition movement. Following reports that the new US administration was debating the designation of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), its parent movement, as a terrorist organisation, the MBJ on January 23 announced an end to its 14-year boycott of dialogue with Washington. Impacts Jordanian authorities could be suspicious of the MBJ’s outreach to Washington, fearing it might become a conduit for US pressure. Radical ideologies may become more prevalent because of rising unemployment, outflanking the MBJ but enhancing its ‘moderate’ credentials. Regional and international instability could force the government and Brotherhood to work together to manage domestic dissent.

Peace deals will not reduce illegal mining in Colombia

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Financial Support ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Gold Mining ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Illegal Mining ◽  
Legal Challenges ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject Illegal mining. Significance The army this month announced the capture of two suspected members of the Clan del Golfo crime group (otherwise known as the Urabenos) in Buritica, Antioquia. The group is thought to be attempting to revive illegal mining in the area, which the government has targeted as part of a recent drive to tackle the crime. Despite increased security efforts nationwide, and the demobilisation of rebels from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), however, little immediate improvement is anticipated. Impacts Gold mining firms are particularly at risk of illegal miners and will invest heavily in security. Gaining project licences may become more difficult if communities associate mining with destructive, unregulated operations. Environmental activism may contribute to the spread of illicit mining as permits for large-scale projects face mounting legal challenges. Security funding could come under further strain should the Trump administration curtail US financial support to Colombia.

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