Caught between two superpowers: Taiwan's left in an age of US-China tensions

Taiwan's major social movements in the past decade were reacting against the possibility of Taiwan's democratic freedoms being lost to China or its domestic proxies. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), currently led by Tsai Ing-wen, have challenged the Kuomintang for power, but have not been able to move beyond the binary of for or against independence. The Sunflower movement and 'Third Force' parties sought to create a space for left and democratic politics, but this appears to be closing down. The Trumpian figure of Han Kuo-yu has been a major problem for the left. There is no easy way out of these dilemmas in an era characterised by increasing US-China tensions.

STABILITY AND CHANGES IN PARTY IDENTIFICATION IN TAIWAN: AN EXAMINATION OF LIFE CYCLE, COHORT, AND PERIOD EFFECTS

This article builds on the theoretical debate over age, period, and cohort effects (APC) and explores how these factors might affect Taiwan's partisan stability. We conducted a two-level multinomial logit random effects model using survey data from 1991 to 2020 to disentangle the APC effects. Our findings challenge Converse's core assumption that partisanship strengthens with age. As a new democracy, Taiwan's party affiliations remain fluid, and we do find evidence of period effects, particularly associated with cross-Strait crises that favor the DPP. However, generational replacement is the most significant factor driving party identity changes in Taiwan. With generational replacement, the Kuomintang is burdened by the image of a century-old party. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) had previously fared better among young cohorts but has recently lost its support from millennials. The youngest generation increasingly refuses to associate with the traditional political parties. It seems reasonable to expect that the new generational forces will restructure the Blue–Green cleavage and expand the ideological diversity of Taiwan's party system.

The Landscape of Historical Memory

The Landscape of Historical Memory explores the place of museums and memorial culture in the contestation over historical memory in post–martial law Taiwan. The book is particularly oriented toward the role of politics—especially political parties—in the establishment, administration, architectural design, and historical narratives of museums. It is framed around the wrangling between the “blue camp” (the Nationalist Party, or KMT, and its supporters) and the “green camp” (Democratic Progressive Party, DPP), and its supporters) over what facets of the past should be remembered and how they should be displayed in museums. Organized into chapters focused on particular types of museums and memorial spaces (archaeology museums, history museums, martyrs’ shrines, war museums, memorial halls, literature museums, ethnology museums, ecomuseums, etc.), the book presents a broad overview of the state of museums in Taiwan in the past three decades. The case of Taiwan museums tells us much about Cold War politics and its legacy in East Asia; the role of culture, history, and memory in shaping identities in the multiply “postcolonial” landscape of Taiwan; the politics of historical memory in an emergent democracy, especially in counterpoint to the politics of museums in the People’s Republic of China, which continues to be an authoritarian single party state; and the place of museums in a neoliberal economic climate.

Was 2016 a Realigning Election in Taiwan?

The January 2016 presidential and legislative elections in Taiwan produced a dramatic and unprecedented victory for the Democratic Progressive Party over its long-time rival, the Kuomintang. The party had never had a parliamentary majority before 2016. The elections indicated the potential for fundamental change in Taiwan’s party system. This is what political scientists call a critical realigning election. The problem with identifying these elections, such as the 1896 and 1932 ones in the United States, is that we can only be sure of such an interpretation after a significant amount of time has passed. Still, some of the changes in Taiwan are fundamental enough to make such an evaluation worthwhile. We summarize realigning elections; discuss the factors that may lead to a change in the partisan balance; and describe the growing role of protest parties and social movements in Taiwan politics.

The effect of China factor on Taiwan's elections: how has it changed across generations from 2008 to 2014?

PurposeThe main purpose of this study is to reveal how the China factor influences Taiwan voters' evaluations of the two major parties across elections and generations. We contend that 1) elderly Taiwan voters may take the China factor more seriously than younger cohorts, and 2) China factor may be weighted differently depending on the levels of elections. More importantly, we argue that the China factor is tangled with voters' partisanship.Design/methodology/approachData gathered from 2008 to 2014 Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) enable in investigating the influence of the China factor on Taiwan people's vote choices in the two local and two presidential elections. To answer the research question, this study applies issue voting theory and the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) employed for empirical investigations.FindingsThe findings of this study provide empirical evidence on how political generations have changed their reactions to China in Taiwan's elections. The fundamental variables, party identification and the China issue are still very important and cannot be disregarded. Specifically, the China factor played a quite influential role in the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) supporters' voting decisions regardless of their generations, whereas its effect on the Kuomintang (KMT) supporters' voting decisions varies depending on electoral contexts and generations.Originality/valueWhile some scholars might suspect that the single item is not sufficient to be an effective predictor of vote choice, we contend that the China factor is definitely the most significant component in Taiwan's elections, especially when it is tangled with partisanship. The SUR approach in this study confirms that partisanship and the China factor cannot be viewed separately.

Shifting perceptions of same-sex marriage in Taiwan: who changed their mind after legalization?

PurposeThis article addresses Taiwanese public opinion on same-sex marriage, connecting it to the 2020 general election.Design/methodology/approachOriginal survey data are combined with analysis of the existing literature and 2020 election results.FindingsOriginal survey data find that nearly one in five respondents have changed their views on same-sex marriage since its legalization, with most of those who have changed their views more opposed to legalization than before. However, this shift and its related support for the Kuomintang (KMT) do not appear to have influenced election results.Social implicationsThe results suggest that positions on same-sex marriage remain somewhat in flux, while the success of the pro-legalization Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) may lead to additional LGBT rights.Originality/valueThis combines original survey data with election results to analyze the effects of same-sex marriage legalization on the election outcome.

The Relationship between Mainstream and Movement Parties in Taiwan

Since democratization began in the mid-1980s, Taiwan’s party system has been dominated by two parties, the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). However, smaller parties have at times played an important role, bringing diversity into the system, stressing different issues and representing neglected communities. These small parties tended to be those that split off from the mainstream parties, while alternative social movement parties struggled to be electorally relevant. The picture changed recently with the rise of two different types of movement parties, the New Power Party (NPP) and the Green Party Taiwan/Social Democratic Party Alliance (GPT/SDP). In this chapter we examine the relationship of these new players with the mainstream party, DPP, offering some thoughts on how the relationship affected the development of these alternative parties.

The Power of Sunflower

This article examines the genesis of Taiwan’s 2014 Sunflower Movement and how it contributed to the decisive defeat of the Kuomintang (KMT) in the 2016 election. The KMT’s accommodating approach to Beijing since 2008 had deescalated cross-strait military tensions and facilitated closer economic ties. However, the so-called “peace dividend” was not evenly distributed but remained a privilege of the minority who enjoyed political connection. The Sunflower Movement’s support came from believers in democratic values and sovereignty, as well as those who expected future joblessness. The widespread perception of threatened democracy and economic victimization constituted the root causes of the Sunflower Movement, paving the way for the historical victory of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in 2016.

TAIWAN ELECTION 2020: MORE AMBITIOUS TAIWANESE IDENTITY AND DEVELOPING CONSTRUCTIVE APPROACHES

The incumbent president of Taiwan (Republic of China-RoC) Tsai Ing-Wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won a landslide victory in the elections on 11 January 2020 over Daniel Han Kuo-yu of the main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT).

Continuity and Change in the US–China–Taiwan Relations

The relations between China and Taiwan (cross-Strait relations) have been a thorny issue for all parties concerned. These relations are one of the flashpoints in the world, which may trigger a serious military conflict. They involve not only China and Taiwan but also the United States. The purpose of this paper is to account for the trajectory of this triangular relationship with the help of opinion surveys in Taiwan. It is shown that when the Kuomintang (KMT) gains the governing power in Taiwan, Taiwan is the median voter in the cross-Strait relations game at the international level while as a non-traditional KMT or the Democratic Progressive Party is in power, it is the US that turns out to be the median voter.