Uganda’s opposition will gain ground despite poll loss

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
National Politics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legal Challenges ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance The opposition has rejected the results and is preparing legal challenges to Museveni’s victory. Impacts NRM internal cohesion will fray as Museveni becomes a more polarising figure in national politics. The NRM will increasingly try to co-opt opponents to neutralise the growing momentum and collaboration among opposition parties. The government will likely launch developmental efforts to tackle youth unemployment and thus avert unrest.

France’s Macron seeks to relaunch economic reforms

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Social Care ◽  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Mandatory Vaccination

Significance Among those policies are measures targeted at youth unemployment and social care for older people, aimed at attracting left-wing support. Most importantly, Macron has committed to relaunching his controversial pension reforms, which triggered widespread social unrest in late 2019 and early 2020. Impacts Mandatory vaccination could trigger protests and legal action against the government. The centre-right Republicans could take support from Macron if they unite around a strong presidential candidate over the coming months. Macron will likely push for looser EU fiscal rules to facilitate more government spending beyond 2022.

Ortega will see out his term in Nicaragua

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Economic Decline ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legal Challenges ◽  
The Government ◽  
Outward Migration ◽  
Opposition Movement

Subject Nicaragua unrest. Significance Protests were held across Nicaragua on April 18 to mark the first anniversary of the beginning of demonstrations against President Daniel Ortega and his government. In the year since, the government has successfully consolidated its control through a combination of security crackdowns and legal challenges to the protests, effectively extinguishing the opposition movement for now. With Ortega’s position secure, he looks set to remain in power until the 2021 elections at least, ignoring opposition calls for early elections to resolve the conflict. Impacts Economic decline will fuel outward migration, with the effects being felt primarily by neighbouring Costa Rica. Recent sanctions citing the Nicaragua Canal may indicate that further investors or individuals involved in that project could be targeted. Companies with links to Caracas could also be targeted, with Washington using Nicaragua to put pressure on Venezuela and vice versa.

Guinea’s constitutional crisis may escalate further

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
International Investment ◽  
Education Sector ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
National Front ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Climate ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance The National Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC) coalition, a grouping of opposition parties and civil society groups, has vowed to continue protests until the government drops its plans. A referendum over a new constitution could be held as early as December alongside planned legislative elections. Impacts The crisis could put the economy under growing pressure, resulting in reduced international investment and potential aid freezes. The worsening economic climate could see public-sector strikes intensify, particularly in the education sector. Persistent protests may trigger defections from the governing Rally of the Guinean People (RPG) and its allies. A potential compromise is that Conde pursues a new constitution as a legacy project, while agreeing to abandon any third-term bid.

Nicaragua pandemic downplaying is a political gamble

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Social Impacts ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trade And Investment ◽  
Economic And Social Impacts ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Some initiatives have been introduced to help counter the economic and social impacts of the pandemic, but the government’s actions appear to be driven less by the need to address the health crisis than by a desire to shore up political support ahead of elections next year. Impacts Opposition parties are beginning to forge electoral alliances in the hope of benefitting from popular frustration with the government. Trade and investment into Nicaragua will remain minimal, with external firms wary about the potential prevalence of COVID-19. The outcome of the US presidential elections in November will affect the potential for US aid and investment.

Malawi’s Mutharika faces poll dispute storm

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Electoral System ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
Democratic Progressive Party ◽  
Court Cases ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legal Challenges ◽  
Elite Level ◽  
The Government ◽  
Progressive Party

Significance Incumbent President Peter Mutharika of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) narrowly won re-election, ahead of the main opposition candidates, Lazarus Chakwera of the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and former Vice-President Saulos Chilima of the United Transformation Movement (UTM). The elections were marred by accusations of rigging, and both Chakwera and Chilima have launched court cases to overturn the result amid sizable post-poll protests. Impacts The opposition has ruled out power-sharing, but this may re-emerge as a compromise option should legal challenges fail. Opposition and civil society groups will increase calls for an amendment to the electoral system, with likely increased public backing. International donors will maintain pressure on the government over persistent budget overruns and elite-level corruption.

Peace deals will not reduce illegal mining in Colombia

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Financial Support ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Gold Mining ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Illegal Mining ◽  
Legal Challenges ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject Illegal mining. Significance The army this month announced the capture of two suspected members of the Clan del Golfo crime group (otherwise known as the Urabenos) in Buritica, Antioquia. The group is thought to be attempting to revive illegal mining in the area, which the government has targeted as part of a recent drive to tackle the crime. Despite increased security efforts nationwide, and the demobilisation of rebels from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), however, little immediate improvement is anticipated. Impacts Gold mining firms are particularly at risk of illegal miners and will invest heavily in security. Gaining project licences may become more difficult if communities associate mining with destructive, unregulated operations. Environmental activism may contribute to the spread of illicit mining as permits for large-scale projects face mounting legal challenges. Security funding could come under further strain should the Trump administration curtail US financial support to Colombia.

Islands deal may end Egyptian judges' independence

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Relative Autonomy ◽  
State Security ◽  
Legal Challenges ◽  
The Government ◽  
Religious Establishment

Significance The approval of the deal aligns parliament with the government against the judiciary. After a series of legal challenges, the Supreme Administrative Court ruled in January that the agreement was void. The case has been referred to the Supreme Constitutional Court, which has not yet ruled on the issue. The islands’ transfer has exposed a rift between Sisi and senior judges and threatens the latter's autonomy. Impacts State security forces will be prepared to deal with any protests against the islands deal. There may be small, isolated demonstrations, which police will almost certainly crush before they develop momentum. Implementation of the deal will consolidate Sisi’s relationship with Saudi Arabia. Sisi is also showing some frustration with the religious establishment, which has so far maintained its relative autonomy.

Reforms will strengthen Singapore opposition

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Local Politics ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Constitutional Changes ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Constitutional reform in Singapore. Significance Parliament is expected in August to receive recommendations on electoral and constitutional changes that will affect opposition politics and executive powers. The government raised the initiatives in parliament in January; Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said they would be beneficial to Singapore and its government. However, the measures are also likely to benefit the People's Action Party (PAP), which has ruled Singapore since independence in 1965. Impacts Presidential elections are unlikely to become more competitive. Opposition parties would gain parliamentary exposure if the reform recommendations are enacted. Government scrutiny of corporations' activities in the community and local politics will intensify.

Balance of power in East Africa is shifting

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Africa ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Mediation Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Stage ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ugandan Government ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Kiir's ally, the Ugandan government, yesterday publicly urged him to sign. However, Kampala's credibility among regional neighbours is under strain given the presence of its troops supporting the Juba government. Elsewhere, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has played an unconvincing role in the thwarted mediation process in Burundi between the government and opposition parties. These two crises have highlighted Uganda's dwindling effectiveness on the regional stage. At the same time, Kenya, supported by its relationship with Ethiopia, has begun to take on the leadership mantle. Impacts Rwanda's government will continue to enjoy a more productive relationship with Kenya than Uganda. However, Burundi's crisis keeps complicating regional ties, with Tanzania and Burundi suspecting that Rwanda had a role in the failed coup. Rwanda's poor relations with Tanzania may be healed when the latter's current president steps down ahead of October polls.

Close vote will bring instability to Montenegro

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
European Integration ◽  
Coalition Building ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Pull Out ◽  
The Government ◽  
Marked Drop ◽  
Public Opposition ◽  
Coup Attempt ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Djukanovic has dominated Montenegrin politics since the first multiparty elections in 1990. Standing aside may be calculated to ease post-election coalition-building negotiations, since Djukanovic is a divisive figure. However, he is likely to influence the government behind the scenes as DPS president. The elections, the most closely contested since independence in 2006, revealed a deeply divided electorate. Opposition parties have alleged a manufactured crisis after the chief of police announced the arrest of 20 Serbian nationals accused of plotting to destabilise the country. Impacts Belgrade's support for Podgorica's allegations of a coup attempt will continue the close relations between the DPS and Serbia's government. Relations with Moscow will remain cool after the government blamed pro-Russian elements opposed to Montenegro joining NATO for the 'coup'. However, a marked drop in Russian tourism or sudden pull-out of Russian investors, whose presence is highly visible, is unlikely. NATO membership is likely to go ahead, with a discernible weakening of public opposition even in quarters previously strongly opposed. Increased instability would slow European integration, which might lose pace further should the opposition unexpectedly form a government.

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