Malawi’s Mutharika faces poll dispute storm

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Electoral System ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
Democratic Progressive Party ◽  
Court Cases ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legal Challenges ◽  
Elite Level ◽  
The Government ◽  
Progressive Party

Significance Incumbent President Peter Mutharika of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) narrowly won re-election, ahead of the main opposition candidates, Lazarus Chakwera of the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and former Vice-President Saulos Chilima of the United Transformation Movement (UTM). The elections were marred by accusations of rigging, and both Chakwera and Chilima have launched court cases to overturn the result amid sizable post-poll protests. Impacts The opposition has ruled out power-sharing, but this may re-emerge as a compromise option should legal challenges fail. Opposition and civil society groups will increase calls for an amendment to the electoral system, with likely increased public backing. International donors will maintain pressure on the government over persistent budget overruns and elite-level corruption.

Malawi’s Mutharika may struggle to be re-elected

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Electoral Reform ◽  
Democratic Progressive Party ◽  
Cholera Outbreak ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
The Past ◽  
Northern Regions ◽  
The Government ◽  
Progressive Party

Subject Pressured Malawian president Significance Recurring corruption crises over the past year have seen President Peter Mutharika and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)’s popularity decline. Despite such travails, the DPP has recently attempted to consolidate its hold on parliament by co-opting members of the opposition People’s Party (PP). This comes soon after rebel PP members controversially supported DPP efforts to defeat an electoral reform bill that would have weakened Mutharika’s 2019 re-election hopes. Impacts The opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) will receive intensified overtures from the main parties ahead of the 2019 poll. Despite the recent parliamentary setbacks, a civil society push for electoral reform is unlikely to subside. Failure properly to combat a cholera outbreak in the Central and Northern regions would put further pressure on the government.

Focus of Taiwan-China diplomatic contest will change

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Common Ground ◽  
Democratic Progressive Party ◽  
Diplomatic Relations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sao Tome And Principe ◽  
Island State ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Necessity ◽  
Progressive Party

Subject Taiwan's 'diplomatic contest' with China. Significance Panama announced on June 12 that it was switching diplomatic relations from Taiwan to China, reducing the number of Taiwan’s diplomatic partners to 20. Panama is the second country to sever relations with Taipei since Tsai Ing-wen of the China-sceptic Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) became Taiwanese president in May last year. In late December, the small African island state of Sao Tome and Principe also switched recognition. Impacts Attitudes toward China in Taiwan will harden, but economic necessity will require Taipei to seek some common ground. As the next election approaches in 2020, the government will feel more pressure to be pragmatic towards China. China will be disinclined to cooperate, hoping that the China-friendly opposition will oust the current China-sceptic government.

Uganda’s opposition will gain ground despite poll loss

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
National Politics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legal Challenges ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance The opposition has rejected the results and is preparing legal challenges to Museveni’s victory. Impacts NRM internal cohesion will fray as Museveni becomes a more polarising figure in national politics. The NRM will increasingly try to co-opt opponents to neutralise the growing momentum and collaboration among opposition parties. The government will likely launch developmental efforts to tackle youth unemployment and thus avert unrest.

New government in Guyana will face challenges

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Social Progress ◽  
Consensus Building ◽  
Business Climate ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Tension ◽  
National Congress ◽  
The Government ◽  
Progressive Party

Significance The government has changed hands only once since independence in 1966: in 1992 the People's Progressive Party (PPP), led by Cheddi Jagan, assumed power following 26 years of People's National Congress (PNC) government. Since the last election in 2011 the government has been hamstrung by a parliament in which a coalition of opposition parties, including the PNC, held a one-seat majority. The result has been gridlock, with no new legislation approved, and continuous disputes over the budget, government spending and agreements with foreign investors. Impacts The election could allow a new government to work toward consensus-building. This might facilitate policies to develop Guyana's potential, and narrow the socioeconomic gap with the rest of the region. If the result is close, political tension and deadlock will persist, undermining the business climate, investment and social progress.

New party could shift Zimbabwe's political balance

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Food Aid ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
Political Patronage ◽  
People First ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Political outlook in Zimbabwe. Significance On February 17, former Vice President Joice Mujuru formally launched a new party -- Zimbabwe People First (ZPF) -- to contest the 2018 election. Usually, such announcements are met with scepticism, given the failure of past attempts to unseat President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF party. However, unprecedented divisions within the ruling party mean ZPF may pose a real electoral challenge. Impacts The government's wholesale takeover of the Marange diamond fields could provide fresh opportunities for political patronage. New rules imposing taxes on around 40 imported basic foods means that the government could benefit financially from emergency food aid. Several G40 members could benefit from Zhuwao's stricter indigenisation rules, which bans foreign investment in 'protected' sectors. Such regulation, together with the drought and weak commodity prices, means GDP growth could fail to reach the World Bank's 1.5% forecast. Mugabe's lavish birthday celebrations will fuel public anger -- given the current food crisis -- possibly boosting opposition support.

Taiwan's new government will upset regional status quo

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Services ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Democratic Progressive Party ◽  
Judicial Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Truth And Reconciliation ◽  
Trade Blocs ◽  
Progressive Party ◽  
Female President

Subject The outlook for Taiwan under the new administration. Significance Tsai Ing-wen, leader of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), was sworn in on May 20 as Taiwan's first female president and only its second leader not from the Kuomintang party, which has governed the island for all but eight years since 1945. In her inaugural address, Tsai outlined a five-point plan focused on reviving a stagnant economy, increasing social services for a rapidly aging population, and moving the export-driven economy away from a reliance on mainland China, Taiwan's largest market. Impacts Restructuring the economy will take time, and public pressure will build if global demand for exports does not rise quickly. Taiwan's bids to join regional trade blocs will meet resistance from China, which will press other countries to block it. Initiatives on judicial reform and 'truth and reconciliation' that discredit the Kuomintang will make domestic politics more acrimonious.

Equatorial Guinea’s fiscal woes are likely to mount

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Banking System ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Equatorial Guinea ◽  
New Production ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Production Sharing ◽  
Capital Spending ◽  
Public Corruption ◽  
Government Deficit ◽  
The Government

Subject Equatorial Guinea fiscal challenges Significance Equatorial Guinea is experiencing a persistent economic crisis. The economy is almost wholly dependent on hydrocarbons; low oil prices have led to significant contractions in economic growth over the past two years. In response, President Teodoro Obiang's government has sharply reduced capital spending. The president also faces significant challenges abroad with his son, Vice-President Teodorin Obiang, the target of a public corruption investigation in French courts. Impacts The government will move quickly to sign and ratify new production-sharing contracts after the current licensing round concludes. Dramatic cuts in public spending will increase unemployment and exacerbate popular unrest. Obiang could position another son -- Minister of Mines, Industry and Energy Gabriel Mbaga Obiang Lima -- as his successor. Government deficit increases will further strain the country's banking system.

Angola leader could rescind his 2018 retirement pledge

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Protests ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Spending Cuts

Subject Political outlook for Angola. Significance President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, in power since 1979, recently announced that he would relinquish the presidency in 2018. While Dos Santos is believed to favour a transition to one of his own children or to Vice-President Manuel Vicente, neither option will find favour in the ranks of the ruling People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) or the wider public. Impacts The military will be immune from major spending cuts given its critical role in ensuring the longevity of the regime. Rising repayment burdens on Chinese loans (estimated to total 25 billion dollars) will further undermine budgetary resources. As social protests rise, the government will respond by clamping down on critics and tightening rules governing civil society groups.

Party coup changes Taiwan election outlook

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Democratic Progressive Party ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Progressive Party

Significance Eric Chu, the party chairman, was nominated to replace Hung Hsiu-chu, whose candidacy failed to rally support within the party. He will run against Tsai Ing-wen, leader of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party. Impacts Cross-Strait relations will once again play the central role in the 2016 presidential and legislative elections. The Kuomintang's diplomatic stance will shift toward the DPP's in an attempt to assuage concerns over cross-Strait policy. Although Tsai has promised not to undo trade agreements with China, she is unlikely to press ahead with new ones. China will remain largely silent on the Taiwanese elections, to avoid reinforcing anti-China sentiment that is widespread in Taiwan.

Debt crisis will delay Zimbabwe economic recovery

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Debt Financing ◽  
Illegal Immigrants ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Remittance Flows ◽  
Do So

Subject Outlook for Zimbabwe's sovereign debt. Significance Secretary to the Treasury Willard Manungo earlier this month revealed that the government owes its diplomats 10 million dollars in salary arrears. It is the latest development in Zimbabwe's fiscal crunch, worsened by President Robert Mugabe's government's limited access to debt financing. This is forcing it to pursue complex, simultaneous negotiations with multiple creditors. Impacts Limited financing will hurt government plans to import 700,000 tonnes of maize necessary to address drought-induced shortfalls. South Africa's restrictive visa regime and clampdowns on illegal immigrants could begin to hurt remittance flows to Zimbabwe. Former Vice-President Joice Mujuru is unlikely to announce a new party in the short term, but may do so before polls in 2018.

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