Costa Rica fiscal reform looks doomed to fail

Subject Fiscal reform protests. Significance President Carlos Alvarado is facing his most severe test since taking office in May, with his efforts to pass a long-awaited fiscal reform sparking strikes and protests across the country. Although the government has initiated a dialogue with trade unions, sustained opposition means that the fiscal reform is likely to be watered down substantially. Impacts Transport disruption will affect regional trade, compounding the transit problems caused by unrest in Nicaragua. The national strike’s success may encourage more such actions in future, potentially over public-sector wage increases. Alvarado’s weakness will increase the dominance of rival political parties in the legislature.


Significance The government has capitulated to demands by trade unions to lower the retirement age despite a growing demographic imbalance and public finances under strain. In the process, the government has demonstrated its weakness and unpopularity. Impacts Surrender to the unions will encourage discontented public sector workers to seek pay rises, with teachers threatening strike action. Popular discontent with fiscal cutbacks will pose a risk to plans for Croatia to adopt the euro early next decade. Divisions at home will limit Croatia’s ability to push its political priorities when it assumes the EU Council presidency in January 2020.



Significance This is due to spending on imported electricity and fuel, prices of which have risen due to the falling kwacha currency (down 40% to the dollar during 2015). The deteriorating economy raises the likelihood of escalating protests. Impacts Debt servicing costs, already 25% of state spending, will likely rise as the government takes on new debt and the currency slumps. Cooling GDP growth means that Zambia's non-tax revenue and VAT mobilisation targets (rises of 200% and 50% respectively) will disappoint. Public sector wage increases (of 9-29%) announced in October will help consolidate PF support in this influential constituency. Investments in new power capacity may soften power woes, but only in the longer term due to lengthy project timeframes.



Subject Indian disinvestment in state-owned enterprises. Significance India’s state-owned enterprises (SOEs), also known as public sector undertakings (PSUs), include central public sector enterprises (CPSEs). Some CPSEs have become more efficient, but the government's tendency is now to privatise rather than reform, with its new policy think-tank recently recommending disinvestment in over 40 PSUs. Impacts The government may seek to disinvest in public-sector banks. Trade unions may launch strikes opposing disinvestment plans. The government may pursue labour reforms to make it easier to recruit and dismiss workers.



Significance The move followed days of protests in response to plans for tax reforms designed to rein in the country’s burgeoning fiscal deficit. Impacts Protests will almost certainly return if the national dialogue is viewed as unsuccessful. The suspension of the IMF talks will encourage the government to look to other multilateral organisations for loans or aid. A lack of fiscal reform may weigh on Costa Rica’s credit rating, reducing its ability to raise international capital.



Significance This appears to reflect high levels of disillusionment with established political parties, possibly exacerbated by several public sector corruption scandals that have emerged in recent months. A run-off looks the most likely outcome of the first presidential round on February 6. Impacts A surge in COVID-19 cases, potentially linked to Omicron, could disrupt the presidential race, particularly affecting the ruling PAC. Further arrests in anti-corruption investigations could influence voting intentions. More details of policies will be released over the coming weeks, especially focused on socio-economic issues.



Significance As they were 50 years ago, several universities and parts of the transport system will be on strike. Impacts The opposition parties are unable to unite and too weak to fight Macron in isolation, giving him a strong hand until 2022. If the government puts the reform agenda on hold for a few months, it will use the time to prepare the next round of reforms. If Macron is victorious, the ‘radical’ non-reformist trade unions will lose influence in the public sector. Macron might end up earning the French public’s trust and even esteem with his persistence and determination.



Subject Costa Rica election build-up. Significance With presidential candidates now selected for all of Costa Rica’s main parties, the parties are gearing up for the February 2018 presidential and legislative elections. The country’s deteriorating fiscal situation is playing a key role in shaping electoral preferences and undermining the popularity of President Luis Guillermo Solis and his party. Impacts The new fiscal reform package is unlikely to pass before the polls, as the opposition will not allow the government a legislative victory. Economic concerns will force the incoming president to focus immediately on fiscal issues, risking a quick return to the current impasse. The suspension of state spending on some projects could undermine prospects for foreign investment into public-private projects.



Significance As in 2020 and 2021, this projected growth will be driven by the ongoing expansion of the oil and gas sector, and related investment and state revenues. These rising revenues will support the government’s ambitious national development plans, which include both increased social and infrastructure spending. Impacts The government will prioritise enhancing the oil and gas investment framework. Investment into joint oil and gas infrastructure with Suriname will benefit the growing oil industry in both countries. The expansionary fiscal policy may lead to a rise in inflation, leading to further calls for wage increases. In the medium term, strong growth in the oil and gas sector could lead to increased climate change activism in the country.



2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 527-544 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rabiu Abdullahi ◽  
Noorhayati Mansor

Purpose Detecting and preventing fraud are challenging and risky tasks, especially in a fast developing economy such as Nigeria. The efforts become crucial in the government sectors, as they involve public’s trust and resources. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationships between the fraud incidence and the elements of fraud triangle theory (FTT) with the aim of combating current fraud outrages in the Nigerian public sector. Design/methodology/approach A survey was conducted and 302 questionnaires were distributed to the staff of the departments of accounting, internal auditing and investigation of ten selected ministries, departments and agencies of Kano State, Nigeria. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to analyze the data. Findings The study reveals a significant relationship between three elements of FTT and fraud incidences in the Nigerian public sectors (p-value < 0.001 for pressure and opportunity and p-value = 0.024 for rationalization). Practical implications The findings of the study are useful for forensic accountants and the Nigerian anti-graft bodies to enhance existing control mechanisms in fraud prevention initiatives. The research also contributes to bridge the gap in academic theory and empirical study related to FTT. Social implications Fraud scandals can cause public’s frustration, damage the reputation and integrity of the ruling government and result in negative image of the public sector. Originality/value Accordingly, the study suggests a salary scale reform (SSR) in the Nigerian public sector and improvement in fringe benefits to increase employees’ standard of living. The study concludes with recommendations to enhance fraud awareness and training programs to the government employees.



Significance Large demonstrations on May 28 resulted in several deaths in Cali; President Ivan Duque deployed troops there the next day. Although that appears, temporarily, to have restored some order, talks between the government and protest leaders have stalled. Impacts The government still plans fiscal reform of some kind, but any proposals now risk inflaming unrest. Prolonged accusations of human rights abuses and impunity could damage Colombia’s international reputation. Fear of socialism and Venezuela’s struggles offer the government a powerful electoral weapon against the left.



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