Oman-Iran relations will survive pressures

Subject Oman-Iran relations Significance Oman is the only Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member that maintains formal relations with all states in the region, including Iran, which has fallen out with the two most powerful GCC states, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Oman’s diplomatic channel to Tehran enables it to play the role of mediator between the United States and its Arab allies on the one side and Iran on the other. Indeed, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called Sultan Qaboos on May 16 to discuss alleged Iranian threats. Impacts An outbreak of hostilities between the United States and Iran would leave Oman isolated from other GCC states. Oman would reap economic benefits as a transshipment centre for Gulf states if Saudi Arabia and the UAE fight with Iran. A worsening Gulf crisis would increase smuggling between Iran and Oman, with Tehran eager to keep supplying Huthi rebels in Yemen.

Subject Iran's cyber capabilities. Significance Tehran has invested in its technology sector in recent years to become one of the world’s most cyber-capable nations. Though perhaps not on the same level as China and Russia, it is not far behind. Iranian hackers have carried out successful attacks in a number of countries, including Saudi Arabia and the United States. Impacts Saudi Arabia is Iran’s primary target for cyber operations, followed by Saudi supporters such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Iran will augment its own cyber warfare capabilities through proxies such as the 'Syrian Electronic Army'. US reversals over the nuclear deal may lead Iran to unleash a new wave of cyberattacks against US interests.


Significance Egypt has started to take delivery of an array of weapons systems, including advanced fighter aircraft and naval vessels, from Russia and France. These orders supplement equipment from the United States, which has been Egypt’s main source of weapons since the 1978 Camp David Accords. Amid an acute economic crisis, Cairo’s military procurement spree raises questions about regime motives. Impacts The rapidity of the military build-up may mean that the army will be unable to man the advanced weapons systems with qualified operators. Egypt is purchasing much of the military hardware on credit, which could further the decline of the struggling Egyptian economy. Egypt could use its newly acquired hardware to vie for regional power and influence with Saudi Arabia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates.


Significance The pope’s trip highlights the efforts of several Gulf countries to brand themselves as religiously tolerant. Both the UAE and Saudi Arabia are also hoping that the promotion of tolerance will be good for their relations with the United States and Europe, changing perceptions that they have fostered radicalism. Impacts Saudi Arabia will make its moves more slowly and cautiously than other Gulf states. Saudi religious conservatives may object to visits by priests, although their objections are unlikely to be loudly voiced. Abu Dhabi and Riyadh will highlight progress on religious freedom to distract from the Yemen war and (for the latter) the Khashoggi affair.


Significance While the rift between Washington and its Gulf allies is not as wide as it was at the height of the 2011 Arab uprisings, Gulf states do not particularly trust Washington's commitment to their security. This rift will only widen if the United States and Iran reach a settlement on nuclear policy, although the change in Saudi leadership offers a chance to boost relations. Impacts Washington will struggle to improve direct relations between Riyadh and Tehran. Divisions between Saudi Arabia and Gulf states more willing to engage Iran, namely Kuwait, Qatar and Oman, are likely to rise. A centre-left victory in the Israeli elections may lead to a US-supported regional framework for a peace process with Palestinians.


Significance He did not name a new prime minister. Over July 25-26, Saied dismissed Prime Minister Hicham Mechichi, dissolved his government, suspended parliament for 30 days, lifted parliamentary immunity and declared himself chief prosecutor, triggering Tunisia’s worst political crisis in a decade. Impacts The Ennahda party could be persecuted once again, this time on corruption charges, as the reconciliation offered excludes its members. Tunisia may become a new ideological battleground, pitting Turkey and Qatar against the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The EU, the United States and Algeria have some influence on Tunisia and could perhaps play a moderating role.


2022 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 131-161
Author(s):  
G. G. Kosach

The paper examines the evolution of Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy in the context of wider changes in the Middle East and in the Arab world triggered by the Arab Spring. The author argues that during this decade the Kingdom’s foreign policy has witnessed a fundamental transformation: the very essence of the Saudi foreign policy course has changed signifi cantly as the political es-tablishment has substantially revised its approaches to the country’s role in the region and in the world. Before 2011, Saudi Arabia — the land of the ‘Two Holy Mosques’ — positioned itself as a representative of the international Muslim community and in pursuing its foreign policy relied primarily on the religious authority and fi nancial capabilities. However, according to Saudi Arabia’s leaders, the Arab Spring has plunged the region into chaos and has bolstered the infl uence of various extremist groups and movements, which required a signifi cant adjustment of traditional political approaches. Saudi Arabia, more explicit than ever before, has declared itself as a nation state, as a regional leader possessing its own interests beyond the abstract ‘Muslim Ummah’. However, the author stresses that these new political ambitions do not imply a complete break with the previous practice. For example, the containment of Iran not only remains the cornerstone of Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy, but has become even more severe. The paper shows that it is this opposition to Iran, which is now justifi ed on the basis of protecting the national interests, that predetermines the nature and the specifi c content of contemporary Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy including interaction with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), approaches towards the solution of the Israeli-Palestinian confl ict, combating terrorism, and relations with the United States. In that regard, the transformation of Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy has, on the one hand, opened up new opportunities for strengthening the Kingdom’s interaction with Israel, but, at the same time, has increased tensions within the framework of strategic partnership with the United States. The author concludes that currently Saudi Arabia is facing a challenge of diversifying its foreign policy in order to increase its international profi le and political subjectivity.


Significance The deal was one of a number of key agreements that Prime Minister Narendra Modi signed during his visit to Tehran on May 23. The visit aimed to advance relations following the lifting of sanctions on Iran in January, and a decade of missed opportunities and rising suspicion in relations between Tehran and Delhi. Impacts Expanding energy and trade ties will support Iran's efforts to diversify its economy and trade relationships. Building economic ties with India will help the normalisation of Tehran's international relations. India will limit security and defence cooperation with Iran in order to avoid alienating Israel, Gulf states and the United States.


Subject Gulf states lobbying in the United States. Significance The Gulf states have long been among the largest spenders on lobbying initiatives in the United States, promoting their economic interests and perspectives on regional geopolitics. This has intensified since 2017 as the Qatar dispute has polarised the region and both sides have sought to win over crucial US decision-makers. These efforts have often backfired and drawn accusations of improper behaviour that could damage bilateral relationships and may affect US domestic politics. Impacts Others considering influencing US policy will look carefully at the successes but also the controversies this lobbying has generated. There is a risk of long-term damage to some Gulf-US relationships amid growing suspicion of foreign influence. Robert Mueller’s probe into the Trump campaign and Russia, which may conclude this year, may also implicate some Gulf states.


Subject The new USMCA. Significance Mexico, Canada and the United States agreed on September 30 to a new trilateral free trade agreement, to replace NAFTA. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) presents a mixed scenario for Mexico’s economy. On the one hand, Mexican officials and businesses are relieved that the uncertainty surrounding the negotiations has been resolved. On the other, the agreement imposes new rules in the auto sector, which could have negative consequences for Mexico’s most important manufacturing industry. Impacts New auto industry rules could raise prices and disrupt supply chains in Mexico’s key export sector. Despite the USMCA’s provisions for higher wages, it will in practice do little to raise them in Mexico. Mexico remains vulnerable to the Trump administration’s protectionist whims.


Significance The UAE military is deeply concerned about both direct and indirect threats from Iran and from Sunni political Islam. It has therefore focused on building alliances with global and regional partner militaries, seen as more useful than developing unilateral capabilities. Impacts The UAE military will not engage in the current Qatar crisis which is political and economic. Abu Dhabi will prioritise alliances with the United States, Europe and Israel to deter Iran. Lobbying for the transfer of the US airbase from Qatar to the UAE is unlikely to succeed. The UAE will build its defence industry to function as an arsenal for regional allies.


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