Egyptian military build-up aims at officers’ loyalty

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Regional Power ◽  
Fighter Aircraft ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Procurement ◽  
The Military ◽  
Weapons Systems

Significance Egypt has started to take delivery of an array of weapons systems, including advanced fighter aircraft and naval vessels, from Russia and France. These orders supplement equipment from the United States, which has been Egypt’s main source of weapons since the 1978 Camp David Accords. Amid an acute economic crisis, Cairo’s military procurement spree raises questions about regime motives. Impacts The rapidity of the military build-up may mean that the army will be unable to man the advanced weapons systems with qualified operators. Egypt is purchasing much of the military hardware on credit, which could further the decline of the struggling Egyptian economy. Egypt could use its newly acquired hardware to vie for regional power and influence with Saudi Arabia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates.

Iran is set to become a formidable cyber actor

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cyber Warfare ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Primary Target ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Technology Sector

Subject Iran's cyber capabilities. Significance Tehran has invested in its technology sector in recent years to become one of the world’s most cyber-capable nations. Though perhaps not on the same level as China and Russia, it is not far behind. Iranian hackers have carried out successful attacks in a number of countries, including Saudi Arabia and the United States. Impacts Saudi Arabia is Iran’s primary target for cyber operations, followed by Saudi supporters such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Iran will augment its own cyber warfare capabilities through proxies such as the 'Syrian Electronic Army'. US reversals over the nuclear deal may lead Iran to unleash a new wave of cyberattacks against US interests.

Cairo aims for greater regional clout

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Procurement

Significance The advent of a new US administration has presented Egypt with an opportunity to reaffirm its regional strategic importance, but also created new risks. Impacts The United States will remain an important factor in Egyptian foreign policy and military procurement, but it is no longer central. An accommodation between Egypt and Turkey may be feasible, and Saudi Arabia could support it, but the UAE might oppose it. Sisi will ignore Western criticisms of Egypt’s human rights record, calculating that the risk of any effective sanctions is low.

Oman-Iran relations will survive pressures

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Gulf Crisis ◽  
Formal Relations ◽  
The One

Subject Oman-Iran relations Significance Oman is the only Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member that maintains formal relations with all states in the region, including Iran, which has fallen out with the two most powerful GCC states, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Oman’s diplomatic channel to Tehran enables it to play the role of mediator between the United States and its Arab allies on the one side and Iran on the other. Indeed, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called Sultan Qaboos on May 16 to discuss alleged Iranian threats. Impacts An outbreak of hostilities between the United States and Iran would leave Oman isolated from other GCC states. Oman would reap economic benefits as a transshipment centre for Gulf states if Saudi Arabia and the UAE fight with Iran. A worsening Gulf crisis would increase smuggling between Iran and Oman, with Tehran eager to keep supplying Huthi rebels in Yemen.

Creeping authoritarianism is a real risk in Tunisia

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Risk ◽  
Chief Prosecutor ◽  
Moderating Role ◽  
The Eu

Significance He did not name a new prime minister. Over July 25-26, Saied dismissed Prime Minister Hicham Mechichi, dissolved his government, suspended parliament for 30 days, lifted parliamentary immunity and declared himself chief prosecutor, triggering Tunisia’s worst political crisis in a decade. Impacts The Ennahda party could be persecuted once again, this time on corruption charges, as the reconciliation offered excludes its members. Tunisia may become a new ideological battleground, pitting Turkey and Qatar against the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The EU, the United States and Algeria have some influence on Tunisia and could perhaps play a moderating role.

An African Balance Sheet

Worldview ◽  
1980 ◽  
Vol 23 (10) ◽  
pp. 7-10
Author(s):  
Ross K. Baker
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
The United States ◽  
Colonial Rule ◽  
African Continent ◽  
Regional Power

It hardly seems possible that two decades have elapsed since the floodtide of African independence. We have become so accustomed to associating Africa with newness that we are apt to forget that the premier states of independent Africa—Ghana and Sudan—are coming up on their twenty-fifth anniversaries of freedom from colonial rule. The scant score of years has seen some remarkable transformations. Nigeria, whose first decade was blighted by Africa's bloodiest civil war, has emerged not merely as a regional power but a major world actor. Second only to Saudi Arabia as a supplier of oil to the United States, Nigeria is able to exert a degree of influence on this country unequaled among the states of the African continent.

Thai palace politics portends long-term risks

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Domestic Consumption ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sharp Criticism ◽  
Legal Controls ◽  
The Military

Subject Palace politics Significance Military courts earlier this month handed down the most severe sentences thus far in lese majeste cases, sentencing two people to 30 and 28 years in prison for criticising the monarchy on Facebook. The sentence, which has drawn sharp criticism from the United States and the UN, reflects a broader trend of tighter political and legal controls by the military in the context of the monarch's declining health. Impacts Domestic consumption will suffer as long as political uncertainty regarding the return of civilian rule persists. The palace has become more partisan since 2006; this is likely to continue after the royal transition. Lese majeste prosecutions will damage US-Thai relations, but Washington will not expand sanctions.

United Arab Emirates military will use proxy warfare

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Islam ◽  
Abu Dhabi ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Industry ◽  
The Us

Significance The UAE military is deeply concerned about both direct and indirect threats from Iran and from Sunni political Islam. It has therefore focused on building alliances with global and regional partner militaries, seen as more useful than developing unilateral capabilities. Impacts The UAE military will not engage in the current Qatar crisis which is political and economic. Abu Dhabi will prioritise alliances with the United States, Europe and Israel to deter Iran. Lobbying for the transfer of the US airbase from Qatar to the UAE is unlikely to succeed. The UAE will build its defence industry to function as an arsenal for regional allies.

Israeli diplomacy will fail to quash Iran-Syria threat

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
The United States ◽  
Ballistic Missile ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Southern Zone ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Post War

Significance Israel sees rising risks from developments in Syria, especially the implementation of four ‘de-escalation zones’ agreed on May 6 by Russia, Iran and Turkey after talks in Astana. Netanyahu is concerned that these -- especially the southern zone, implemented in cooperation with the United States and Jordan -- will entrench an Iranian military presence in post-war Syria, including in areas close to the Israeli border. Impacts Rising Iranian spending on its ballistic missile programme will exacerbate Israeli concerns. The eighth round of UN-mandated Syrian peace talks in Geneva this month will assume implementation of the de-escalation zones. Shared concerns over Iran will boost Israel’s ties with some Sunni Arab governments, especially Saudi Arabia. Turkey’s enhanced coordination with Iran will not undermine growing economic and energy ties with Israel.

Qatari litigation targets reputation, not resolution

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
Dispute Resolution ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Test Cases ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legal Challenges

Subject Qatari legal disputes with Gulf rivals. Significance More than two years after a bloc of regional rivals began an economic and political boycott of Qatar, there are no signs of rapprochement on the horizon. In the meantime, Doha has launched a series of legal challenges against the boycotting countries at the WTO and elsewhere. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has responded with counterclaims against Qatar. Impacts The Gulf diplomatic crisis will likely only be resolved when the blockading countries find it expedient to bring it to a close. Saudi and UAE use of the national security exemption will offer further test cases for WTO dispute resolution. The United States may seek to intervene to encourage bilateral deals to prevent an unwelcome ruling on the national security exemption.

Philippines martial law likely to be extended

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Habeas Corpus ◽  
Martial Law ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military

Significance Proclamation 216 was made after Islamic State (IS)-linked Maute group militants attacked and occupied Marawi City on May 23. The president also suspended habeas corpus in Mindanao on May 24. Impacts Extending martial law in Mindanao would likely see further communist guerrilla attacks. Philippine security links with Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia and the United States will deepen. Appeals against the Supreme Court's decision could be lodged but are unlikely to work. The military will gain increased political influence through martial law.

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