No-deal Brexit trading would be highly disruptive

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Legal Status ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Party Leadership ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Financial Obligations ◽  
The Eu

Subject Brexit and trade. Significance As both candidates for the Conservative Party leadership say they would countenance the United Kingdom leaving the EU without a deal on October 31, the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit is increasing. Impacts A no-deal Brexit would leave the legal status of UK citizens residing in the rest of the EU uncertain. It would cause the pound to depreciate, partially offsetting tariffs and the costs of customs procedures. The EU will likely insist that any future trade agreement is contingent on London fulfilling its financial obligations for leaving the bloc.

An opening of the Brexit deadlock nears

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Political Change ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Alternative Plan ◽  
European Parliament Elections ◽  
Theresa May ◽  
The Eu

Subject Brexit outlook. Significance If Prime Minister Theresa May can get the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) and Political Declaration on future relations approved in Parliament this week, the United Kingdom should leave the EU on May 22. However, it remains unlikely that her deal will gain a parliamentary majority, setting up a different deadline. The United Kingdom must come up with an alternative plan by April 12 or face the prospect of crashing out of the EU with no deal. Impacts The United Kingdom could have a new prime minister within weeks; a general election cannot be ruled out. The EU will remain distracted by Brexit as it heads into a season of political change beginning with European Parliament elections in May. As a final option, May could commit to resigning to get support for the WA from Conservative Party MPs.

Japan’s firms will not rush to exit the United Kingdom

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Financial Firms ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Japanese Firms ◽  
Japanese Investment ◽  
The Eu

Subject Impact of Brexit on Japanese investment into the United Kingdom. Significance Japanese firms are confronting their options by moving their official office locations to EU countries and changing the nationality of their finances. The reactions so far have been limited and largely defensive. Impacts Frankfurt, Amsterdam and Paris will benefit from London-based financial firms relocating, though the scale of movement will be small. Pressure will grow in the United Kingdom for a trade agreement with Japan to balance the new agreement that Japan has with the EU. Slowing European and UK demand for cars will intensify the forces driving Japanese carmakers to consider leaving the United Kingdom.

UK election will bring political instability

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
House Of Commons ◽  
Party Leadership ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Liberal Democrats ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
The Eu

Significance The election is likely to produce an unstable House of Commons, with both the fate of the United Kingdom and the country's status in the EU left uncertain. A prolonged period of political instability appears in prospect. Impacts The Liberal Democrats will be crucial to determining the next government's character and chances of survival. Liberal Democrat MPs, activists or members could override the preferences of the party leadership. Cameron's fate within his party rests on him delivering an EU membership referendum, not simply a government.

Some Cameron demands will meet EU resistance

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Special Treatment ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Significance Cameron is gauging his counterparts' positions before presenting his reform agenda at the June 25-26 EU summit. He seeks the other EU states' support for a package of reforms that will enable him to claim that he has secured a better deal for the United Kingdom in the EU, and thus campaign for an 'in' vote in the EU membership referendum he has promised by end-2017. Cameron is seeking to build backing for some reforms that would apply across the EU, rather than only seek special treatment for the United Kingdom. However, some of the reforms he has mooted are unacceptable to many other EU states. Impacts The greatest impact of the reforms that Cameron secures could be on the scale of the split in the Conservative Party over EU membership. Some of Cameron's reforms could bring important changes across the bloc, as well as set precedents for other member states. The UK renegotiation will generate bargaining between member states that will affect their negotiation of other issues.

May will have to negotiate Brexit in EU and at home

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Services Sector ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
Theresa May ◽  
The Eu

Significance The next challenge for UK Prime Minister Theresa May is to reconcile the requirements laid down by the EU and domestic political pressures in progressing the Brexit talks still further. Impacts The EU’s proposals would not allow the United Kingdom to sign trade deals before the end of transition. A Canada-style trade agreement would damage the United Kingdom’s services sector. Failure to negotiate a transition period within the next few months could lead to some companies beginning to relocate.

Prospects for the United Kingdom to end-2018

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Investment Spending ◽  
Fiscal And Monetary Policy ◽  
Global Activity ◽  
The Eu

Subject Prospects for the United Kingdom to end-2018. Significance The government’s focus to end-2018 will be to negotiate a withdrawal agreement with the EU and balance the different Brexit factions within the ruling Conservative Party. Meanwhile, GDP growth is slowing as global activity is losing momentum and domestic political uncertainty combined with tighter fiscal and monetary policy is discouraging consumer and investment spending.

London will find more traction in Islamabad than Delhi

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Prominent FCO Minister Tariq Ahmad earlier this month visited India. Meanwhile, contention over a Brexit settlement with the EU has raised the prospect of an imminent UK general election, when the ruling Conservative party will face a tough challenge from opposition parties such as Labour. Impacts Islamabad will press London to support its interests in Washington. Delhi will largely ignore London in formulating its foreign policy. An outbreak of hostilities between India and Pakistan would likely prompt tense protests involving diasporic groups in the United Kingdom.

Prospects for Europe in the third quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Single Currency ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Eu ◽  
The Way

Subject Prospects for Europe in the third quarter. Significance For the rest of June and the third quarter, the EU will grapple with the future positions within the bloc of two member states, the United Kingdom and Greece. The period will see the resolution, one way or another, of the immediate crisis in Greece's relations with its international creditors. The way in which this takes place will have profound implications for the future of the single currency.

EU-UK deal allows Cameron to campaign against Brexit

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
David Cameron ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The package of reforms on a new EU-UK relationship. Significance The agreement between the United Kingdom and its EU partners sets the stage for the UK referendum on EU membership, which Prime Minister David Cameron has set for June 23. Cameron said he had negotiated new terms that would allow the United Kingdom to remain in the EU. Impacts The deal bolsters the campaign to remain in the EU, but the referendum outcome is still highly uncertain. The deal will only come into effect if the outcome is for remaining, forestalling a second referendum for better terms. If the outcome is for leaving, a new relationship with the EU would have to be negotiated during a two-year transition period. It would also probably lead to a second Scottish independence referendum and UK break-up.

Complicated UK-WTO negotiations may hit growth

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Negotiation Process ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Poor Understanding ◽  
Slow Progress ◽  
The Eu

Subject The United Kingdom's WTO status after Brexit. Significance The terms of the United Kingdom's WTO membership are linked to those of the EU. In order to continue benefiting from other members' concessions after Brexit, the United Kingdom will need to arrange its own membership and terms in a potentially lengthy and complicated negotiation process with all other WTO members. Impacts Upon Brexit, the United Kingdom will regain its full competence for concluding bilateral and regional trade agreements. The government's slow progress in recruiting experienced UK trade negotiators may put it at a disadvantage. Poor understanding of the complexity of WTO negotiations may mean that economic losses have been underestimated.

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