Prospects for Europe in the third quarter

Subject Prospects for Europe in the third quarter. Significance For the rest of June and the third quarter, the EU will grapple with the future positions within the bloc of two member states, the United Kingdom and Greece. The period will see the resolution, one way or another, of the immediate crisis in Greece's relations with its international creditors. The way in which this takes place will have profound implications for the future of the single currency.

Significance The celebration came just days before the United Kingdom is set to begin the withdrawal process. Precisely what path the EU will take over the next decade remains uncertain and the European Commission has kicked off a process of dialogue on various scenarios for its future. Impacts Debates about the future of the EU will occur simultaneously with Brexit negotiations and be coloured by them. EU leaders will be keen to continue to demonstrate their commitment to press forward with European integration despite Brexit. Brexit will not lead to an unravelling of the EU and thus far has served to enhance support for the Union in other member states. Yet Brexit will not lead to any sudden deepening of integration.


Significance However, member states have the dominant foreign policy role in the EU. After Brexit, that will be France and Germany despite the United Kingdom insisting that it wants to maintain as close a relationship with the EU as possible. Impacts EU reformers will light on foreign policy as an area to drive forwarded integration. However, the EEAS lacks the competencies and institutional horsepower to be a force for integration. The strategic needs of the 27 post-Brexit EU members will be various, thus acting as a drag on integration. Smaller EU member states will see more advantage than larger ones in collectively pursuing foreign policy goals through Brussels. Larger member states will be unwilling to submit their national defence policies to greater EU authority.


Author(s):  
Federico Fabbrini

This book examines how the European Union has changed during Brexit and because of Brexit, while also reflecting on the developments of the EU besides Brexit and beyond Brexit. It argues that the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU—the first ever case of disintegration since the start of the European integration process—creates an urgent need to reform the EU. In fact, while the EU institutions and its Member States have remained united in their negotiations vis-à-vis the UK, Brexit has created transitional problems for the EU, and exposed other serious fissures in its system of governance which need to be addressed moving forward. As the EU goes through another major crisis in the form of the response to the Covid-19 pandemic, the case for increasing the effectiveness and the legitimacy of the EU grows stronger. In this context, the book analyses the plan to establish a Conference on the Future of Europe, considering its precedents and discussing its prospects.


Significance European leaders are hoping for the best but preparing for the worst as they await negotiations on the United Kingdom's departure from the EU. A chaotic exit has not been ruled out, although cooler heads are likely to prevail eventually. Impacts The first months after Article 50 is invoked will be dominated by technical aspects; political negotiations may not begin before 2018. UK failure to take sufficient account of domestic politics in other EU member states is likely to be an obstacle in the negotiations. Governments under pressure from populist parties will be keen to ensure that the United Kingdom is not seen as better off after it leaves.


Significance Cameron is gauging his counterparts' positions before presenting his reform agenda at the June 25-26 EU summit. He seeks the other EU states' support for a package of reforms that will enable him to claim that he has secured a better deal for the United Kingdom in the EU, and thus campaign for an 'in' vote in the EU membership referendum he has promised by end-2017. Cameron is seeking to build backing for some reforms that would apply across the EU, rather than only seek special treatment for the United Kingdom. However, some of the reforms he has mooted are unacceptable to many other EU states. Impacts The greatest impact of the reforms that Cameron secures could be on the scale of the split in the Conservative Party over EU membership. Some of Cameron's reforms could bring important changes across the bloc, as well as set precedents for other member states. The UK renegotiation will generate bargaining between member states that will affect their negotiation of other issues.


Subject Prospects for the United Kingdom in 2016. Significance Against an economic background likely to stay largely benign barring external shocks, 2016 could see policy and political developments with profound implications for the future of the United Kingdom, including a decision on remaining in or leaving the EU.


Significance France has been one of the first European countries to prepare effectively for Brexit, setting up a task force in July 2016. It has since adopted a consistently hard line, helping solidify the EU position. Impacts France will push for a hard line on EU passporting rights for UK-based banks. In case of a ‘no deal’ Brexit, French regions will seek agreements on the maritime economy with the United Kingdom. France's hard line could irritate EU member states that are more willing to compromise to secure closer post-Brexit EU-UK ties.


Author(s):  
Olha Ovechkina

In connection with the decision to withdraw the UK from the EU a number of companies will need to take into account that from 1 January 2021 EU law will no longer apply to the United Kingdom and will become a "third country" for EU Member States, unless the provisions of bilateral agreements or multilateral trade agreements. This means that the four European freedoms (movement of goods, services, labor and capital) will no longer apply to UK companies to the same extent as they did during the UK's EU membership. The purpose of the article is to study, first of all, the peculiarities of the influence of Great Britain's withdrawal from the European Union on the legal regulation of the status of European legal entities. Brexit results in the inability to register European companies and European economic interest groups in the UK. Such companies already registered before 01.01.2021 have the opportunity to move their place of registration to an EU Member State. These provisions are defined in Regulations 2018 (2018/1298) and Regulations 2018 (2018/1299).British companies with branches in EU Member States will now be subject to the rules applicable to third-country companies, which provide additional information on their activities. In the EU, many countries apply the criterion of actual location, which causes, among other things, the problem of non-recognition of legal entities established in the country where the criterion of incorporation is used (including the United Kingdom), at the same time as the governing bodies of such legal entities the state where the settlement criterion is applied. Therefore, to reduce the likelihood of possible non-recognition of British companies, given the location of the board of such a legal entity in the state where the residency criterion applies, it seems appropriate to consider reincarnation at the actual location of such a company. Reducing the risks of these negative consequences in connection with Brexit on cross-border activities of legal entities is possible by concluding interstate bilateral and multilateral agreements that would contain unified rules on conflict of law regulation of the status of legal entities.


Subject The package of reforms on a new EU-UK relationship. Significance The agreement between the United Kingdom and its EU partners sets the stage for the UK referendum on EU membership, which Prime Minister David Cameron has set for June 23. Cameron said he had negotiated new terms that would allow the United Kingdom to remain in the EU. Impacts The deal bolsters the campaign to remain in the EU, but the referendum outcome is still highly uncertain. The deal will only come into effect if the outcome is for remaining, forestalling a second referendum for better terms. If the outcome is for leaving, a new relationship with the EU would have to be negotiated during a two-year transition period. It would also probably lead to a second Scottish independence referendum and UK break-up.


Subject The United Kingdom's WTO status after Brexit. Significance The terms of the United Kingdom's WTO membership are linked to those of the EU. In order to continue benefiting from other members' concessions after Brexit, the United Kingdom will need to arrange its own membership and terms in a potentially lengthy and complicated negotiation process with all other WTO members. Impacts Upon Brexit, the United Kingdom will regain its full competence for concluding bilateral and regional trade agreements. The government's slow progress in recruiting experienced UK trade negotiators may put it at a disadvantage. Poor understanding of the complexity of WTO negotiations may mean that economic losses have been underestimated.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document