Investment-grade bond rating downgrade fears will rise

Subject Investment-grade bond market. Significance Corporate debt has increased worldwide since the global financial crisis; the IMF Global Financial Stability Report warned this month that as much as 40% of the corporate debt of the major economies could be vulnerable to default in a financial downturn even half as severe as that of 2008-09. Rising amounts of investment grade debt are in danger of being downgraded to a speculative or junk rating. This could force institutional investors to sell newly classified junk bonds, exacerbating any downturn. Impacts US economic and financial outcomes will be crucial to the health of the investment-grade bond market given the large US BBB-rated market. Loose monetary policy will help corporates to manage their funding costs but might not offset the impacts of sharply slower global growth. Many major firms are reducing their debt to help to protect their credit ratings, but sharply slower growth might alter their priorities.

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 687-700 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siti Raihana Hamzah ◽  
Obiyathulla Ismath Bacha ◽  
Abbas Mirakhor ◽  
Nurhafiza Abdul Kader Malim

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the extent of risk shifting behavior in bonds and sukuk. The examination is significant, as economists and scholars identify risk shifting as the primary cause of the global financial crisis. Yet, the dangers of this debt-financing feature are largely ignored – one needs to only witness the record growth of global debt even after the global financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach To identify the signs of risk shifting existence in the corporations, this paper compares each corporation’s operating risk before and after issuing debt. Operating risk or risk of a firm’s activities is measured using the volatility of the operating earnings or coefficient variation of earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA). Using EBITDA as the variable offers one distinct advantage to using asset volatility as previous research has – EBITDA can be extracted directly from firms’ accounting data and is not model-specific. Findings Risk shifting can be found in not only the bond system but also the debt-based sukuk system – a noteworthy finding because sukuk, supposedly in a different class from bonds, have been criticized in some quarters for their apparent similarity to bonds. On the other hand, this study thus shows that equity feature, when it is embedded in bonds (as in convertible bonds) or when a financial instrument is based purely on equity (as in equity-based sukuk), the incentive to shift the risk can be mitigated. Research limitations/implications Global awareness of the dangers of debt should be increased as a means of reducing the amount of debt outstanding globally. Although some regulators suggest that sukuk replace debt, they must also be aware that imitative sukuk pose the same threat to efforts to avoid debt. In short, efforts to ensure future financial stability cannot address only debts or bonds but must also address those types of sukuk that mirror bonds in their operation. In the wake of the global financial crisis, amid the frantic search for ways of protecting against future financial shocks, this analysis aims to help create future stability by encouraging market players to avoid debt-based activities. Originality/value This paper differs from the previous literature in two important ways, viewing risk shifting behavior not only in relation to debt or bonds but also when set against debt-based sukuk, which has been subjected to similar criticism. Indeed, to the extent that debts and bonds encourage risk shifting behavior and threaten the entire financial system, so, too, can imitation sukuk or debt-based sukuk. Second, this paper is unique in exploring the ability of equity features to curb equity holders’ incentive to engage in risk shifting behavior. Such an examination is necessary for the wake of the global financial crisis, for researchers and economists now agree that risk shifting must be a controlled behavior – and that one way of controlling risk shifting is by implementing the risk sharing feature of equity-based financing into the financial system.


2018 ◽  
Vol 44 (10) ◽  
pp. 1210-1226
Author(s):  
Siti Raihana Hamzah ◽  
Norizarina Ishak ◽  
Ahmad Fadly Nurullah Rasedee

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine incentives for risk shifting in debt- and equity-based contracts based on the critiques of the similarities between sukuk and bonds. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses a theoretical and mathematical model to investigate whether incentives for risk taking exist in: debt contracts; and equity contracts. Findings Based on this theoretical model, it argues that risk shifting behaviour exists in debt contracts only because debt naturally gives rise to risk shifting behaviour when the transaction takes place. In contrast, equity contracts, by their very nature, involve sharing transactional risk and returns and are thus thought to make risk shifting behaviour undesirable. Nonetheless, previous researchers have found that equity-based financing also might carry risk shifting incentives. Even so, this paper argues that the amount of capital provided and the underlying assets must be considered, especially in the event of default. Through mathematical modelling, this element of equity financing can make risk shifting unattractive, thus making equity financing more distinct than debt financing. Research limitations/implications Global awareness of the dangers of debt should be increased as a means of reducing the amount of debt outstanding globally. Although some regulators suggest that sukuk replaces debt, they must also be aware that imitative sukuk poses the same threat to efforts to avoid debt. In short, efforts to ensure future financial stability cannot address only debts or bonds but must also address those types of sukuk that mirrors bonds in their operation. In the wake of the global financial crisis, amid the frantic search for ways of protecting against future financial shocks, this analysis aims to help create future stability by encouraging market players to avoid debt-based activities and promoting equity-based instruments. Practical implications This paper’s findings are relevant for countries that feature more than one type of financial market (e.g. Islamic and conventional) because risk shifting behaviour can degrade economic and financial stability. Originality/value This paper differs from the previous literature in two important ways, viewing risk shifting behaviour not only in relation to debt or bonds but also when set against debt-based sukuk, which has been subjected to similar criticism. Indeed, to the extent that debts and bonds encourage risk shifting behaviour and threaten the entire financial system, so, too, can imitation sukuk or debt-based sukuk. Second, this paper is unique in exploring the ability of equity features to curb equityholders’ incentive to engage in risk shifting behaviour. Such an examination is necessary for the wake of the global financial crisis, for researchers and economists now agree that risk shifting must be controlled.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bahriye Basaran-Brooks

Purpose Already suffering reputational damage from the global financial crisis, banks face a further loss of trust due to their poor money laundering (ML) compliance practices. As confidence-driven institutions, the loss of reputation stemming from inadequate compliance with regulations and policies labels banks as facilitators of crime and destroys public trust both in the bank itself, peer banks and the wider banking system. Considering the links between financial stability and adverse publicity about banks, this paper aims to critically examine the implications of ML-specific bank information on financial stability. Design/methodology/approach This paper adopts a content analysis and a theoretical discussion by critically evaluating the role of bank compliance information on stability with references to recent case studies. Findings This paper establishes that availability of information regarding a bank involved in or facilitating ML might pose a threat to financial stability if bank counterparties cut their ties with the bank in question and when bank stakeholders show a strong and sudden negative reaction to adverse publicity. Though recent ML scandals have not caused immediate instability, general loss of confidence associated with reputational risk have had a destabilising effect on affected banks’ capital and liquidity. Originality/value There has been surprisingly little discussion to date on the impact of publicly available bank information on financial stability and public confidence within the ML compliance framework. This paper approaches the issue of publicly available banking compliance information solely through the prism of public confidence and reputational risk and its impact on macro-stability by examining recent ML scandals.


2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (4) ◽  
pp. 624-645 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edgardo Cayon ◽  
Julio Sarmiento-Sabogal ◽  
Ravi Shukla

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to perform an event study using high frequency data on peso-denominated Colombian government bonds to measure the effects of news during the global financial crisis (GFC). Design/methodology/approach Using standard event study methodology, the authors want to see if a surprise (originating from macroeconomic news and GFC events) has a significant effect on asset prices measurable as abnormal returns. The authors also assume that the US market acted as a transmission mechanism for the crisis in a standard market model framework and control for confounding effects from events that originated from the crisis by taking into account the effect of global, regional and local macroeconomic surprises in the period before, during and after the GFC. Findings The results show that there was resilience and decoupling of the Colombian local currency bond market from the events of the GFC. Research limitations/implications The results show that there was resilience (in terms of abnormal returns) and decoupling of the Colombian local currency bond market from the events of the GFC. The paper also finds that, on an average, Colombian bonds performed better during the period of the GFC than the period before and after the GFC. Practical implications In the event study using individual bonds the paper finds that, in most cases, negative news had a positive impact in Colombian bond prices during the GFC. Social implications These results have important policy implications in emerging markets economies in terms of the benefits of substituting foreign currency debt with local currency debt. Originality/value This paper provides a date and time-specific timeline (Table III) of the most significant GFC events and news. The paper finds that for all the periods under observation local news related to inflation had the greatest impact in bond prices. In the case of global and regional news, inflation and trade-related surprises had also significant effects on bond prices but to a lesser extent.


2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimie Harada ◽  
Takeo Hoshi ◽  
Masami Imai ◽  
Satoshi Koibuchi ◽  
Ayako Yasuda

Purpose – This paper aims to understand Japan’s financial regulatory responses after the global financial crisis and recession. Japan’s post-crisis reactions show two seemingly opposing trends: collaboration with international organizations to strengthen the regulation to maintain financial stability, and regulatory forbearance for the banks with troubled small and medium enterprise [SME] borrowers. The paper evaluates the responses by the Japanese financial regulators in five areas (Basel III, stress tests, over-the-counter [OTC] derivatives regulation, recovery and resolution planning and banking policy for SME lending) and concludes that the effectiveness of the new regulations for financial stability critically depends on the willingness of the regulators to use the new tools. Design/methodology/approach – This report evaluates the post-crisis responses by the Japanese financial authorities in five dimensions (Basel III, stress tests, OTC derivatives regulations, recovery and resolution planning and bank supervision). Findings – The effectiveness of the new regulations for financial stability critically depends on the willingness of the regulators to use the new tools. Originality/value – The paper is the first attempt to evaluate the financial regulatory trends in Japan after the global financial crisis.


2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 143-159
Author(s):  
Andreas Kuchler

Purpose Private investment in advanced economies contracted sharply during the downturn that followed the global financial crisis. A substantial debt overhang has been one proposed explanation for this development. This paper evaluates the role of debt overhang for the slow recovery in investment in Denmark, a country in which levels of private debt rapidly increased before the crisis. Design/methodology/approach Based on firm-level panel data, this paper evaluates the links between debt and investment dynamics for individual firms during the downturn that followed the global financial crisis. Findings High leverage contributed to a slow recovery in investment during the downturn that followed the financial crisis, in particular for small and medium-sized enterprises. The effect cannot solely be attributed to mean reversion in investment. Research limitations/implications Results point to the existence of a separate leverage or “balance sheet” channel with implications for macroeconomic volatility and financial stability. Practical implications Macroprudential or microprudential measures to counteract the build-up of excess leverage during upswings may contribute to reducing macroeconomic volatility and improving financial stability. Originality/value In contrast to previous studies, the panel dimension of data is used to take mean reversion in investment into account. The large, nationally representative panel data set allows to assess the macroeconomic relevance of the results, as well as enables subsample splits which are used to gain insights into potential mechanisms through which debt overhang impacts investment.


Subject Advanced world corporate debt risks. Significance Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies have boosted economic activity in the United States, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom and France since the global financial crisis, and corporate profits have grown faster than real GDP in all five. In Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom, profits have outgrown the outstanding debts held by financial corporations. This is not the case in the United States or France, where corporate debt risks are piling up. Impacts If credit conditions deteriorate or there is an economic downturn, France will have the largest number of highly indebted companies at risk. France’s high corporate debt exposure may prompt the authorities to raise further the counter-cyclical capital buffers banks must hold. Surging leveraged loans and share buybacks are fuelling speculative-grade US corporate bond activity, threatening financial stability. Risks are intensified in specific segments, but the subprime crisis shows that even limited specific risks can threaten overall stability.


Subject Emerging market corporate bonds enter bubble territory. Significance Strong appetite for higher-yielding emerging market (EM) assets this year has compressed corporate bond spreads the most since the global financial crisis, fuelling concerns of a bubble. The sharpest compression has occurred in Asia where spreads on the Asian component of JPMorgan’s benchmark EM corporate bond index have fallen below their mid-2014 post-crisis low. Low volatility and the enduring ‘search for yield’ are underpinning demand but the scope for a correction is increasing as valuations are increasingly stretched -- particularly in Asian high-yield, and in non-investment grade bonds -- while concerns are high about China’s crackdown on financial leverage. Impacts The dollar has erased its post-election gain; it may fall more in coming weeks. The oil price has risen 10% since May 9 on rising confidence that OPEC will extend output cuts but further increases will be limited. The ‘Vix’ equities volatility index, Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’, is close to a historic low despite the political turmoil in Washington.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qamar Uz Zaman ◽  
Waheed Akhter ◽  
Mariani Abdul-Majid ◽  
S. Iftikhar Ul Hassan ◽  
Muhammad Fahad Anwar

PurposeThis study aims to assess the determinants of corporate debt with a particular focus on bank-affiliated and non-bank-affiliated firms during the global financial crisis.Design/methodology/approachThe authors analyse the data of 395 listed manufacturing firms from Pakistan with 2,370 firm-year observations. The sample is divided into subsamples, namely bank-affiliated, non-bank-affiliated and stand-alone firms. Fixed and panel effect regression models are applied to determine the during, pre-crisis and post-crisis effects on corporate capital structure.FindingsThe robust results of the study reveal that non-bank-affiliated firms have different leverage determinant behaviours with a greater reliance on size, tangibility and profitability. However, bank-affiliated firms seemed to show greater immunity from a crisis compared to other firms. Simultaneously, the stand-alone firms remained at a disadvantage subject to internal financial ties of group-affiliated firms and form a base of market imperfection.Practical implicationsThis study's findings imply that financial managers should contain better ties with financial institutions to enhance financial immunity in worse time of financial crisis or COVID-19 global calamity. On the regulation front, these findings call for critical policy regulations to govern the internal ties with financial institutions to create a level playing field for the corporate sector.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to investigate determinants of corporate debt with a particular focus on bank-affiliated and non-bank-affiliated firms. This work is also novel to explore corporate debt of bank-affiliated and non-bank-affiliated firms during the financial crisis.


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