Helping farmers only partly eases India’s rural crisis

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Shadow Banks ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Education And Employment ◽  
Bihar State ◽  
Reserve Bank Of India

Significance A key factor in the sharp fall is decreasing consumption, especially in rural areas. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has sought to raise farmer incomes, but only a minority of the rural population farms for a living. Impacts Elections in Bihar state towards the end of this year will likely be preceded by farmer protests over economic hardship. Across India, landowning castes will increasingly demand education and employment opportunities away from rural areas. The Reserve Bank of India will further reform banks and shadow banks as part of efforts to address their high ratios of bad loans.

Modi will lose much rural support

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Rural Population ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Agricultural Output ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Education And Employment ◽  
Farm Debt

Significance As the 2019 general election approaches, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is trying to secure the backing of India’s rural population, which is some two-thirds of the country’s total. Modi has encouraged state governments to waive farm debt worth up to 2.8 trillion rupees (39 billion dollars); suggested a procurement formula guaranteeing farmers a return of at least 1.5 times their costs of production; and promised to double farm incomes by 2022. Meanwhile, landowning castes are increasingly demanding opportunities in education and employment away from rural areas. Impacts State governments will try to pay off farm debts by issuing bonds. In election campaigning, opposition parties will claim to champion rural interests. An average 2018 monsoon should boost agricultural output.

India’s central bank will be more amenable to Modi

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Consecutive Term ◽  
Indian Banks ◽  
Bad Debt ◽  
Reserve Bank Of India

Subject RBI under new governorship. Significance Shaktikanta Das was last month appointed Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor after Urjit Patel resigned. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government had for several months clashed with the RBI over how to foster economic growth. The general election is likely in April or May, when Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces a tough fight to win a second consecutive term. Impacts In election campaigning, Modi will emphasise India’s mostly robust quarterly GDP growth figures during his term. Indian banks’ level of bad debt could decrease by the end of the fiscal year ending March 2019. India will likely widen its fiscal deficit target for 2018/19 (3.3% of GDP) ahead of the 2019/20 budget.

India’s economic growth will slow further

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Sector Banks ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Reserve Bank Of India

Subject India's macroeconomic problems. Significance Fitch Ratings last week reduced its forecast for Indian GDP growth in fiscal year 2019/20 (April-March) to 5.5%, compared to a projection in June of 6.6%. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) earlier this month forecasted 6.1%, compared to a projection in February of 7.4%. Either Fitch’s or the RBI’s latest figure would be India’s lowest full-year growth rate since Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power in 2014. Impacts As growth slows further, more foreign portfolio investors will withdraw from Indian equity and debt markets. Plans to merge public sector banks, consolidating their debts, will prompt more protests by bank workers fearing for their jobs. Opposition parties will challenge the nationally ruling Bharatiya Janata Party on its economic record at upcoming state elections.

Congress party will likely lead 2019 anti-Modi front

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Madhya Pradesh ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Reserve Bank Of India ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Party President Rahul Gandhi’s Congress displaced the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) from power in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, all in the nationally ruling party’s ‘Hindu-Hindi’ heartland and with large rural constituencies. In recent months, opposition parties including Congress have been in talks about possibly forming a broad anti-BJP front to challenge Modi in the general election, likely in April or May next year. Impacts More farmer-led protests are likely ahead of the general election. Outbreaks of Hindu-Muslim violence are likely, especially in the north and west. Modi’s government will press the Reserve Bank of India to release more reserves and cut rates, hoping to boost growth.

India’s remedy for bad debt may not bring relief

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Job Creation ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Bankruptcy Code ◽  
The Government ◽  
Bad Debt ◽  
Reserve Bank Of India

Subject Implementation of India's new Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code. Significance Shrinking bank credit is hindering India’s ability to finance spending. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is relying on the recently instituted Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) as the principal instrument to address the problem of stressed assets in the banking system. Impacts The government may accelerate plans to merge stronger and weaker PSBs. Indian corporates may increase their issue of bonds denominated in domestic currency. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will emphasise job creation rather than investment until the next election.

India’s banks will struggle to inspire confidence

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
The State ◽  
Regulatory Oversight ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Shadow Banks ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
High Level ◽  
Bad Debt ◽  
Reserve Bank Of India

Subject Problems in India's banking sector. Significance The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) earlier this month stepped in to rescue imperilled Yes Bank. The private sector lender had accumulated a high level of bad debt. Impacts Indian borrowers will be increasingly distrustful of shadow banks as well as banks. The State Bank of India could come under strain owing to its need to support Yes Bank financially. The RBI will come under growing pressure to improve its regulatory oversight of the banking sector.

Jharkhand poll brings high risks for Indian leader

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eastern State ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Bihar State ◽  
Legislative Assembly

Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is aiming to retain power in the eastern state. The poll assumes greater significance in the light of surprise setbacks for Modi’s party in two state elections in October and nationwide furore over the recently passed Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA). Impacts India’s main opposition Congress party is unlikely to accrue much political capital from the poll. Irrespective of the result, the BJP will quickly turn attention to campaigning for the Delhi legislative assembly election, due by February. Rashtriya Janata Dal will be the main threat to the BJP in the Bihar state election due towards the end of next year.

Jobs and manufacturing boost to elude India's FDI push

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Price Reform ◽  
Key Industries ◽  
Gas Price ◽  
Reserve Bank Of India

Subject Liberal reforms and their economic impact. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government on June 19 eased restrictions on foreign direct investment (FDI) in several key industries. Besides temporarily reassuring markets concerned about Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan's departure in September, the reforms aim to sustain FDI inflows. Impacts Lack of clarity on sourcing requirements will dampen FDI in single-brand retail. The global gas glut will impede domestic gas price reform, dashing BP's hopes in the upstream (but not downstream) segment. Stalled infrastructure projects will limit creation of construction jobs.

Regional battles will be key in India’s election

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Key Factor

Significance Different states and union territories will go to the polls on different dates, with many voting in more than one phase. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces a tough challenge from the main opposition Congress party and several regionally influential parties. Impacts Anti-Pakistan nationalism would favour the BJP but, unless there are further cross-border hostilities, it is unlikely to be a key factor. Outbreaks of religious or caste violence are most likely in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar states. The post-poll government will struggle to rein in the fiscal deficit, with both main parties’ campaign pledges straining budgetary prudence.

The hoax of demonetization in Indian economy: a mathematical analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 678-693
Author(s):  
Debasish Roy
Keyword(s):  
Money Supply ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Macroeconomic Theory ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
Clear Cut ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
The Masses ◽  
The Mathematical Model ◽  
Reserve Bank Of India

Purpose Over one and half years have passed since the demonetization of Indian economy had occurred on November 8, 2016. The drastic step was initiated by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi with an intention to curb the “huge” circulation of illicit or “black” money of Indian economy by means of withdrawal of high value denominations of Rupees 500 and Rupees 1,000 from the supply of broad money (M3). This step helped to demonetize around 86 per cent value of total money supply leading to an unprecedented chaos in the economy and public life. The long delays in issuing fresh currency notes at the banks and ATMs further deteriorated the sudden economic crisis. Design/methodology/approach This research paper is aimed at exploring the proclaimed “efficacy” of demonetization policy as proposed by Reserve Bank of India by means of a mathematical approach and critically examines the effects of demonetization on the illicit money supply of Indian economy on the basis of macroeconomic theory. Findings From the mathematical model and related estimates, it may be easily deduced that the Indian policymakers deliberately hurled the masses in one of the gravest economic crises with a clear-cut intention of creating a political gimmick, when in reality, the proportion of illegitimate money supply was not even 1 per cent of total legitimate supply of money. Originality/value The analyses and findings related to this paper are based on mathematical modeling and logical interpretations. This paper is free of plagiarism as all the necessary sources and references are properly cited.

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