India’s central bank will be more amenable to Modi

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Consecutive Term ◽  
Indian Banks ◽  
Bad Debt ◽  
Reserve Bank Of India

Subject RBI under new governorship. Significance Shaktikanta Das was last month appointed Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor after Urjit Patel resigned. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government had for several months clashed with the RBI over how to foster economic growth. The general election is likely in April or May, when Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces a tough fight to win a second consecutive term. Impacts In election campaigning, Modi will emphasise India’s mostly robust quarterly GDP growth figures during his term. Indian banks’ level of bad debt could decrease by the end of the fiscal year ending March 2019. India will likely widen its fiscal deficit target for 2018/19 (3.3% of GDP) ahead of the 2019/20 budget.

India’s economic growth will slow further

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Sector Banks ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Reserve Bank Of India

Subject India's macroeconomic problems. Significance Fitch Ratings last week reduced its forecast for Indian GDP growth in fiscal year 2019/20 (April-March) to 5.5%, compared to a projection in June of 6.6%. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) earlier this month forecasted 6.1%, compared to a projection in February of 7.4%. Either Fitch’s or the RBI’s latest figure would be India’s lowest full-year growth rate since Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power in 2014. Impacts As growth slows further, more foreign portfolio investors will withdraw from Indian equity and debt markets. Plans to merge public sector banks, consolidating their debts, will prompt more protests by bank workers fearing for their jobs. Opposition parties will challenge the nationally ruling Bharatiya Janata Party on its economic record at upcoming state elections.

India’s remedy for bad debt may not bring relief

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Job Creation ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Bankruptcy Code ◽  
The Government ◽  
Bad Debt ◽  
Reserve Bank Of India

Subject Implementation of India's new Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code. Significance Shrinking bank credit is hindering India’s ability to finance spending. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is relying on the recently instituted Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) as the principal instrument to address the problem of stressed assets in the banking system. Impacts The government may accelerate plans to merge stronger and weaker PSBs. Indian corporates may increase their issue of bonds denominated in domestic currency. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will emphasise job creation rather than investment until the next election.

Helping farmers only partly eases India’s rural crisis

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Shadow Banks ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Education And Employment ◽  
Bihar State ◽  
Reserve Bank Of India

Significance A key factor in the sharp fall is decreasing consumption, especially in rural areas. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has sought to raise farmer incomes, but only a minority of the rural population farms for a living. Impacts Elections in Bihar state towards the end of this year will likely be preceded by farmer protests over economic hardship. Across India, landowning castes will increasingly demand education and employment opportunities away from rural areas. The Reserve Bank of India will further reform banks and shadow banks as part of efforts to address their high ratios of bad loans.

Congress party will likely lead 2019 anti-Modi front

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Madhya Pradesh ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Reserve Bank Of India ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Party President Rahul Gandhi’s Congress displaced the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) from power in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, all in the nationally ruling party’s ‘Hindu-Hindi’ heartland and with large rural constituencies. In recent months, opposition parties including Congress have been in talks about possibly forming a broad anti-BJP front to challenge Modi in the general election, likely in April or May next year. Impacts More farmer-led protests are likely ahead of the general election. Outbreaks of Hindu-Muslim violence are likely, especially in the north and west. Modi’s government will press the Reserve Bank of India to release more reserves and cut rates, hoping to boost growth.

Election could erode New Zealand budget repair

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
National Party ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
National Rule ◽  
Productivity Commission ◽  
Commission Report ◽  
Consecutive Term

Significance Increased economic optimism will be welcomed by Prime Minister Bill English, who is hoping that his National Party will win a fourth consecutive term in government this September. Finance Minister Steven Joyce presented a confident budget for the 2017-18 fiscal year in May that focused principally on low-to-middle-income taxpayers, laying out the government’s economic agenda. Impacts A tight labour market will push up wages and paint a positive picture of National rule for the electorate. High levels of household debt could undercut consumer confidence once monetary policy begins to tighten. No shifts in climate policy are anticipated until a June 2018 Productivity Commission report is released.

India’s banks will struggle to inspire confidence

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
The State ◽  
Regulatory Oversight ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Shadow Banks ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
High Level ◽  
Bad Debt ◽  
Reserve Bank Of India

Subject Problems in India's banking sector. Significance The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) earlier this month stepped in to rescue imperilled Yes Bank. The private sector lender had accumulated a high level of bad debt. Impacts Indian borrowers will be increasingly distrustful of shadow banks as well as banks. The State Bank of India could come under strain owing to its need to support Yes Bank financially. The RBI will come under growing pressure to improve its regulatory oversight of the banking sector.

India will struggle to revive growth quickly

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Credit Rating ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Credit Rating Agencies ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Finance Minister

Subject Outlook for India's economy following the 2020/21 budget. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government estimates that GDP growth for fiscal year 2019/20 (April-March) will be 5.0%, the lowest full-year rate in eleven years. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman earlier this month presented a budget for 2020/21 and said growth would pick up to 6.0-6.5% in that year. Impacts Further widening of the fiscal deficit could prompt credit rating agencies to downgrade India’s outlook. Some states may try to reclaim powers of taxation that they surrendered when the Modi government introduced the Goods and Services Tax. Modi will double down on efforts to promote the ‘Make in India’ initiative, which is designed to increase domestic manufacturing.

Jobs and manufacturing boost to elude India's FDI push

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Price Reform ◽  
Key Industries ◽  
Gas Price ◽  
Reserve Bank Of India

Subject Liberal reforms and their economic impact. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government on June 19 eased restrictions on foreign direct investment (FDI) in several key industries. Besides temporarily reassuring markets concerned about Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan's departure in September, the reforms aim to sustain FDI inflows. Impacts Lack of clarity on sourcing requirements will dampen FDI in single-brand retail. The global gas glut will impede domestic gas price reform, dashing BP's hopes in the upstream (but not downstream) segment. Stalled infrastructure projects will limit creation of construction jobs.

India’s growth may have macroeconomic costs

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Repo Rate ◽  
Bankruptcy Code ◽  
Bad Debt ◽  
Reserve Bank Of India

Subject Indian growth is high but public debt is rising. Significance Despite evidence that demonetisation slowed the economy in the first quarter of 2017, India is likely to revert again to being one of the fastest growing economies in the world. However, India’s level of public debt is higher than in many other emerging markets while bank credit is slowing, threatening the country’s growth prospects. Impacts Central government will increase expenditure on investment. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will be pressed to cut interest rates further, after today reducing the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6%. India’s new Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code should help to ease the problem of bad debt and non-performing loans.

Prospects for India to end-2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Subject Prospects for India to end-2017. Significance The expected economic scenario over the second half of 2017 is low inflation and a rebound of GDP growth from a slowdown in the first half. Following the triumph of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at the Uttar Pradesh state elections in March, Prime Minister Narendra Modi can expect a relatively quiet political season until year-end.

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