Regional battles will be key in India’s election

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Key Factor

Significance Different states and union territories will go to the polls on different dates, with many voting in more than one phase. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces a tough challenge from the main opposition Congress party and several regionally influential parties. Impacts Anti-Pakistan nationalism would favour the BJP but, unless there are further cross-border hostilities, it is unlikely to be a key factor. Outbreaks of religious or caste violence are most likely in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar states. The post-poll government will struggle to rein in the fiscal deficit, with both main parties’ campaign pledges straining budgetary prudence.

Modi’s main test now will be to manage his alliance

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Hindu Nationalism ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Jobless Growth ◽  
Chief Minister ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Significance The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has retained a parliamentary majority and the BJP has extended its single-party majority. During campaigning, Modi emphasised nationalist themes, ranging from Hindu nationalism to national security, while deflecting criticism over problems such as the country’s jobless growth. Impacts The BJP’s pledge to spend 100 trillion rupees (1.4 trillion dollars) on infrastructure will likely prompt a widening of the fiscal deficit. Leading BJP figures such as party President Amit Shah and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath may aim to succeed Modi in 2024. Rahul Gandhi will highly likely relinquish leadership of the main opposition Congress party.

India’s parties will target youth vote further

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Student Teachers ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Young Voters ◽  
University Campuses ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Jobless Growth ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Job Prospects

Subject Indian parties' outreach to young voters. Significance Last month, police in Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh (UP) state, clashed violently with crowds of student teachers protesting their poor job prospects. There have been dozens of youth demonstrations against joblessness across the country this year. The general election will likely occur in April or May next year when Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will face a challenge from the main opposition Congress party and other national or state-based parties. Impacts Civil society critics will accuse the BJP of undermining academic freedoms in the country’s universities. Some university campuses could see outbreaks of violence around the time of the poll. While the BJP will highlight India’s robust growth figures in campaigning, opponents will criticise it for fostering jobless growth.

Modi’s party will be relaxed about upcoming polls

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Chief Minister ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
National Profile ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Each of these states except Punjab has a government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Punjab is one of just three states with a chief minister that belongs to India’s main opposition Congress party. Impacts A poor showing by Congress would further reduce its leverage with other opposition parties in talks over forming a broad anti-Modi alliance. Victory in UP would enhance Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s national profile. Election campaigning will likely lead to a spike in COVID-19 cases.

Modi may yet face a real opposition if it can unite

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
Communal Violence ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject The likely strategy of the BJP's opponents. Significance The opposition to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lacks a coherent strategy at national level ahead of elections due in 2019. However, the large turnout at a public rally in Patna late last month, where Lalu Prasad Yadav brought together representatives of 18 opposition parties, suggests that there is popular support for a challenge to the BJP. Impacts States in which elections are due are more likely to see outbreaks of communal violence. Sonia Gandhi will come under increasing pressure to relinquish leadership of the Congress party. The BJP may support the creation of a separate Gorkhaland, at the risk of alienating support in the rest of West Bengal.

India-Pakistan tensions will simmer but not boil over

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Economic Pressure ◽  
Kashmir Valley ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Significance Following the victory of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) in elections late last month, he expressed a wish to improve relations with Pakistan's neighbour and traditional enemy India, especially on the disputed Kashmir valley. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will seek to retain power in elections early next year, congratulated Khan on his poll win. Impacts Pakistan’s military may try to influence the Afghan parliamentary election in October. The security of Indian-administered Kashmir will deteriorate. India will lobby the United States to exert further political and economic pressure on Pakistan over cross-border militancy.

Modi’s party will easily win upcoming state polls

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Electronic Voting ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Significance Both states currently have chief ministers from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). India’s main opposition Congress party and regional players are aiming to wrest power from them. Impacts In some parts of Maharashtra, there will likely be outbreaks of agrarian protest in the final stages of campaigning. Smaller parties could win more seats than Congress in the Haryana poll. Parties winning fewer votes in the elections will probably claim impropriety relating to electronic voting machines.

Six scenarios are possible after India’s election ends

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
A Priority ◽  
To Come ◽  
Election Commission

Significance The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is aiming to retain a parliamentary majority. The United Progressive Alliance (UPA), led by the main opposition Congress party, and several unaligned parties are looking to come to power. Impacts The Election Commission will attract criticism over the conduct of the polls from disgruntled parties. A priority for the post-election government will be addressing India’s trading relations with partners in the region and beyond. Tensions with Pakistan could escalate at any time, but the formation of a new government may create an opening for bilateral talks.

India's public health will be an election battleground

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Hindu Nationalism ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
Open Defecation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Party Chief

Subject India's nationwide clean-up campaign. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s flagship ‘Swachh Bharat Abhiyan’ (‘Clean India Mission’) is now in its fifth and final year. While the programme aims to eliminate the country’s culture of open defecation, many Dalits (historically regarded as ‘untouchable’) working as manual scavengers continue to make up for an infrastructure deficit in urban sewerage. Modi will be seeking a second term in the general election, likely in April or May next year, but his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces a tough challenge from rivals including the main opposition Congress party. Impacts The BJP’s election campaign will likely have a strong emphasis on Hindu nationalism. Mayawati, Bahujan Samaj Party chief and a Dalit, will be a key figure in talks about forming a broad anti-BJP alliance for the election. Water shortages could prompt pre-poll protests in several cities across India.

Caste unrest will help Modi's party retain Dalit vote

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Agenda ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Caste Politics

Subject Caste politics in India. Significance In a sign of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ability to shape the political agenda, the National Democratic Alliance's candidate Ram Nath Kovind was sworn in as India's 14th president on July 25. With attacks on Dalits (low castes) in the north Indian heartlands of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) surging, the nomination of a Dalit for the presidency was designed to strengthen the party's appeal to the community ahead of state elections. Impacts Support for the main opposition Congress party among Dalits will decline in Gujarat. Beef and leather exports will fall despite the Supreme Court suspending the ban on trading cattle for slaughter. Anti-Muslim violence may increase across the country.

Helping farmers only partly eases India’s rural crisis

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Shadow Banks ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Education And Employment ◽  
Bihar State ◽  
Reserve Bank Of India

Significance A key factor in the sharp fall is decreasing consumption, especially in rural areas. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has sought to raise farmer incomes, but only a minority of the rural population farms for a living. Impacts Elections in Bihar state towards the end of this year will likely be preceded by farmer protests over economic hardship. Across India, landowning castes will increasingly demand education and employment opportunities away from rural areas. The Reserve Bank of India will further reform banks and shadow banks as part of efforts to address their high ratios of bad loans.

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