Oromo coalition will trouble Ethiopia’s ruling party

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Addis Ababa ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Coalition Building ◽  
National Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Home State ◽  
Democratic Dialogue ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Coalition-building ahead of Ethiopia's 2020 elections. Significance Following months of negotiations, the leaders of the three biggest Oromo opposition parties -- the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC), Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and Oromo National Party (ONP) -- on January 3 announced the formation of the Coalition for Democratic Federalism (CDF). This new platform will pose a serious electoral challenge to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s newly formed Prosperity Party (formerly the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF)) in Oromia, Abiy’s home state. Impacts As the OFC is already a member of the Forum for Democratic Dialogue in Ethiopia (MEDREK) opposition alliance, the CDF may also join. Ethiopia’s first-past-the-post electoral system will encourage further coalition-building, especially among opposition parties. If the CDF pushes claims of Oromo ‘ownership’ over Addis Ababa, this would complicate relations with other actors.

Singapore ruling party faces critical contest

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
September 11 ◽  
General Election ◽  
Foreign Workers ◽  
Founding Father ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The City ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Outlook for Singapore's 2015 general election. Significance Singapore will hold a general election on September 11, its first since the death of the city-state's founding father, Lee Kuan Yew. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has braced his long-incumbent People's Action Party (PAP) for a more difficult contest at the polls than in 2011, with opposition parties expected to better the 10% share of parliamentary seats they held on the dissolution of parliament on August 25. Impacts The People's Action Party will need to define a post-Lee Kuan Yew legacy. The post-September government will need to balance popular concern over foreign workers with Singapore's need for labour. Singaporean electoral politics will become increasingly competitive.

Planned merger may unravel Ethiopian ruling coalition

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Coalition Building ◽  
National Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Parties ◽  
Potential Source

Subject Proposed reforms in the ruling coalition. Significance Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is leading a drive to restructure the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of four ethnic-based regional parties, into a single national party. Despite Abiy’s leadership on the issue, intra- and inter-party contestation may protract or even prevent the merger. Impacts An EPRDF merger is unlikely to impact opposition politics and strategies significantly but may add urgency to coalition-building efforts. The EPRDF’s affiliate parties would be major beneficiaries of a merger and a potential source of support for Abiy. Even without a merger, the Tigray People’s Revolutionary Front (TPLF) may eventually opt to leave the EPRDF.

New coalition may split the vote in Ethiopia’s capital

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Addis Ababa ◽  
Electoral Competition ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Elections in Addis Ababa. Significance Balderas for True Democracy, a newly established regional party for the capital Addis Ababa, and the All Ethiopian Unity Party (AEUP), one of Ethiopia’s oldest national parties, have agreed to form a coalition. While the new coalition nominally reduces opposition fragmentation, it may nevertheless more firmly split the opposition vote in the nation’s capital. Impacts The first-past-the-post electoral system should favour the ruling party if the opposition vote remains divided. The ruling party may enjoy a nationalist boost over its strong stance against Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Addis Ababa’s centrality and visibility increase the chances of free and open electoral competition compared to outlying areas. If the COVID-19 crisis worsens, elections may yet be delayed.

Canberra struggles with emissions targets

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Public Subsidies ◽  
Higher Power ◽  
Trade Sanctions

Significance The report comes as Prime Minister Scott Morrison lobbies his National Party partners in the governing coalition to back a target of net zero emissions by 2050 prior to next month’s COP26 climate conference in Glasgow. Impacts Much-needed investment in the renewables sector may not materialise without a more positive government approach to the sector. Australian businesses may face trade sanctions as a result of the government’s failure to adopt binding emission targets. Public subsidies for investment in coal and gas could lead to higher power bills for consumers.

Modi’s party will be relaxed about upcoming polls

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Chief Minister ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
National Profile ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Each of these states except Punjab has a government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Punjab is one of just three states with a chief minister that belongs to India’s main opposition Congress party. Impacts A poor showing by Congress would further reduce its leverage with other opposition parties in talks over forming a broad anti-Modi alliance. Victory in UP would enhance Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s national profile. Election campaigning will likely lead to a spike in COVID-19 cases.

Ruling party dominance will mean stability in Mongolia

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Development Plans ◽  
Party Dominance ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance He was elected on June 9 with a record majority of nearly 68%, after stepping down as prime minister in January. The MPP now holds all the highest offices: the presidency, the office of the prime minister and the office of the speaker of parliament. Impacts Development plans and government finances will rely on rising copper prices. Despite high vaccination levels, COVID-19 is spreading and calls for more lockdowns are growing; these would threaten economic recovery. Beijing will see Khurelsukh as friendlier than his predecessors, but significant concessions to China are unlikely.

Ruling party poll win leaves Ethiopia at a crossroads

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Addis Ababa ◽  
National Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Pressure ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance Notably, the party defied expectations by reportedly winning comfortably in the capital Addis Ababa. Impacts Ethiopia’s government will invoke the outcome to reject international pressure and perceived encroachments on the country’s sovereignty. As electoral calculations fade, Abiy may have greater scope to make concessions on major national and international disputes. Tigray will remain unrepresented at the national level.

Narrow win limits new Jamaican government's options

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Job Creation ◽  
Labour Party ◽  
Window Of Opportunity ◽  
National Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Positive Message ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opinion Polls

Subject Outlook for the new government. Significance Despite opinion polls before the February 25 election indicating a victory for the incumbent People's National Party (PNP), the opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) won a narrow one-seat victory and JLP leader Andrew Holness was sworn in as prime minister for a second time on March 3. The PNP ran a lacklustre campaign that failed to galvanise its core supporters. In contrast, the JLP offered a positive message of tax cuts and job creation. Impacts Absent rapid economic improvements, public opinion may turn against the new government. Juggling IMF targets and popular demands may prove beyond the JLP's capabilities. The government has only a narrow window of opportunity before the PNP recovers from its surprise defeat.

Uganda former PM aspirant will provoke backlash

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Internal Disruption ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Police Forces

Subject Pre-election politics in Uganda. Significance The long-expected announcement on June 15 by sacked Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi that he will run for president will bring bitter tensions between him and President Yoweri Museveni out into the open. It is highly unlikely to threaten the latter's 30-year rule but may provoke internal disruption within the ruling party as Museveni makes an example of internal dissent. Impacts Loyalty among the military and police forces will remain central to Museveni's power. Museveni effectively distances himself from graft scandals, while Mbabazi's reputation remains tarnished by several high-profile cases. Oil firms could see some benefits, if Museveni decides to assure them of his solid hold on power. The government was already likely to unleash inflation-inducing spending during the election, but Mbabazi's campaign increases this risk.

Modi may yet face a real opposition if it can unite

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
Communal Violence ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject The likely strategy of the BJP's opponents. Significance The opposition to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lacks a coherent strategy at national level ahead of elections due in 2019. However, the large turnout at a public rally in Patna late last month, where Lalu Prasad Yadav brought together representatives of 18 opposition parties, suggests that there is popular support for a challenge to the BJP. Impacts States in which elections are due are more likely to see outbreaks of communal violence. Sonia Gandhi will come under increasing pressure to relinquish leadership of the Congress party. The BJP may support the creation of a separate Gorkhaland, at the risk of alienating support in the rest of West Bengal.

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