New coalition may split the vote in Ethiopia’s capital

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Addis Ababa ◽  
Electoral Competition ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Elections in Addis Ababa. Significance Balderas for True Democracy, a newly established regional party for the capital Addis Ababa, and the All Ethiopian Unity Party (AEUP), one of Ethiopia’s oldest national parties, have agreed to form a coalition. While the new coalition nominally reduces opposition fragmentation, it may nevertheless more firmly split the opposition vote in the nation’s capital. Impacts The first-past-the-post electoral system should favour the ruling party if the opposition vote remains divided. The ruling party may enjoy a nationalist boost over its strong stance against Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Addis Ababa’s centrality and visibility increase the chances of free and open electoral competition compared to outlying areas. If the COVID-19 crisis worsens, elections may yet be delayed.

Oromo coalition will trouble Ethiopia’s ruling party

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Addis Ababa ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Coalition Building ◽  
National Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Home State ◽  
Democratic Dialogue ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Coalition-building ahead of Ethiopia's 2020 elections. Significance Following months of negotiations, the leaders of the three biggest Oromo opposition parties -- the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC), Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and Oromo National Party (ONP) -- on January 3 announced the formation of the Coalition for Democratic Federalism (CDF). This new platform will pose a serious electoral challenge to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s newly formed Prosperity Party (formerly the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF)) in Oromia, Abiy’s home state. Impacts As the OFC is already a member of the Forum for Democratic Dialogue in Ethiopia (MEDREK) opposition alliance, the CDF may also join. Ethiopia’s first-past-the-post electoral system will encourage further coalition-building, especially among opposition parties. If the CDF pushes claims of Oromo ‘ownership’ over Addis Ababa, this would complicate relations with other actors.

Ruling party poll win leaves Ethiopia at a crossroads

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Addis Ababa ◽  
National Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Pressure ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance Notably, the party defied expectations by reportedly winning comfortably in the capital Addis Ababa. Impacts Ethiopia’s government will invoke the outcome to reject international pressure and perceived encroachments on the country’s sovereignty. As electoral calculations fade, Abiy may have greater scope to make concessions on major national and international disputes. Tigray will remain unrepresented at the national level.

Rwandan election euphoria masks democratic malaise

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Great Lakes ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Great Lakes Region ◽  
Internal Security ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Positive View ◽  
Election System ◽  
Progressive Force ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Rwanda's electoral system Significance September’s parliamentary elections delivered a comfortable victory for President Paul Kagame’s ruling Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF) and its allies, as well as the first seats in parliament for the country’s only registered opposition party. The peaceful and well-managed polls were hailed by international observers as a sign of democratic progress. However, this positive view obscures the extent to which the election system only reinforces ruling party supremacy. Impacts Rwanda will extend its international outreach, including efforts to improve difficult relationships such as with France. Rwanda’s desire to portray itself as a progressive force will also underpin its drive to become a major ICT hub. Insecurity and tense relations in the Great Lakes region will pose a persistent threat to Rwanda’s internal security.

New Taiwan opposition leader could ease China tension

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Xi Jinping ◽  
Charismatic Leader ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cautious Approach ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance He is Beijing's preferred candidate and appears to have a cordial relationship with President Xi Jinping. He takes the helm at a moment when relations with China are the tensest they have been in more than a decade. Impacts Chu will stick to the '1992 Consensus' that there is only one China. Chu will take a more cautious approach to cross-Strait cooperation than Taiwan's last Kuomintang president, Ma Ying-jeou (2008-16). The task of making the Kuomintang a ruling party again will probably require a more charismatic leader than Chu.

Construction time prediction model for public building projects

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shambel Kifle Alemu
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Addis Ababa ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Time Cost ◽  
Construction Time ◽  
Time Model ◽  
Building Projects ◽  
Public Building ◽  
Content Type

PurposeThe aim of the study was to develop a practical construction time model for public building projects in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.Design/methodology/approachThis research work used regression analysis and also exploratory scatter and residual plot techniques. Simple and multiple regressions were used for the investigation of the best fit time model. The analyses were carried out using IBM SPSS statistical software, version 20.FindingsThe result revealed that the Bromilow time-cost principle was moderately applicable. However, the cubic regression model (CUB) was found a better time-cost relationship. On the contrary, the study has shown a poor relationship between actual time and gross floor area. Furthermore, multiple linear regression analysis (MLR) consists of three statistically significant variables were found a better fit time model.Research limitations/implicationsThe study is limited to only six project scope factors. Further research is recommended to include more building projects of similar type and implications of other factors to improve the reliability of the models.Practical implicationsThe developed model was not intended as a replacement for detailed construction scheduling techniques. The resulting model is applicable for front-end predictions of construction duration.Originality/valueThe main parties involved in the building projects should apply the model for benchmarking a precise construction time during the early planning phase.

The 2016 Electoral Reform in Mongolia: From Mixed System and Multiparty Competition to FPTP and One-Party Dominance

2017 ◽  
Vol 53 (4) ◽  
pp. 511-531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavel Maškarinec
Keyword(s):  
Electoral Competition ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Electoral Reform ◽  
District Level ◽  
Mixed System ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
Party Dominance ◽  
Duverger's Law

This article tests the effects of a new electoral system that was introduced in Mongolia for the June 2016 elections. The decision to implement a first-past-the-post (FPTP) system instead of a mixed-member majoritarian (MMM) system, which was first and last used in the previous elections of 2012, was due to the April 2016 ruling of the Mongolian Constitutional Court on unconstitutionality of the list tier as one of the mechanisms for distributing seats within MMM. Through an analysis of national- and district-level results, this article addresses the question whether electoral competition at the district level was consistent with Duverger’s law and resulted in the restoration of bipartism, which had been disrupted in 2012 due to the use of MMM.

Perceptions and pathways of resilience in Addis Ababa

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 337-352
Author(s):  
Nicole Baron ◽  
Zegeye Cherenet
Keyword(s):  
Addis Ababa ◽  
Research Field ◽  
Change Resistance ◽  
Theory Approach ◽  
Expert Interviews ◽  
Urban Resilience ◽  
Initial Attempt ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Perspective ◽  
New Research

Purpose Resilience has recently attracted widespread interest in the field of urban planning and theory. However, the research that has been conducted on urban resilience in Africa has major theoretical and methodological gaps. This can lead to problems when designing and implementing resilience strategies there. Understanding African perspectives can be a way of tackling these. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach Using the example of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, this paper analyses expert interviews based on a grounded theory approach. The goal is to explore locally specific perceptions of and pathways to urban resilience. By comparing these findings to those reported in the existing literature, differences and overlaps are identified. Findings This study provides evidence for the existence of locally specific perceptions of and pathways to urban resilience. Furthermore, it identifies urban development pathways such as complete urban makeover (tabula rasa) and complete negation of change (resistance). Research limitations/implications Because this study uses Addis Ababa as a singular case and expert interviews as method, it rather represents an initial attempt at exploring a new research field than claiming generalisability. Its quality and significance lie in its discursive approach and theory formation. Practical implications This exemplary study from Ethiopia demonstrates that a regionally specific understanding of urban resilience is valuable for the design and implementation of urban resilience strategies. Originality/value This study offers unique insights into urban resilience from an African perspective and into the manifestation of urban resilience in Addis Ababa.

Property rights and investment: the mediating effect of contract enforcement

2017 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-34
Author(s):  
Ziade Hailu ◽  
Isaac N. Nkote ◽  
John C. Munene
Keyword(s):  
Property Rights ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Addis Ababa ◽  
Mediating Effect ◽  
Mediation Effect ◽  
Contract Enforcement ◽  
Design Data ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically test whether enforceability mediates the relationship between property rights and investment in housing, using data from land formalization project in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Design/methodology/approach The study was cross-sectional in design; data were collected from a sample of 210 households that benefited from the recent Addis Ababa city land and buildings formalization project. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to assess the goodness-of-fit of the latent structures underlying the constructs. Mediation was tested using the Baron and Kenny steps, combined with bootstrapping technique. Robustness of results was checked. Findings The results indicate statistically significant mediation effect of contract enforcement. However, the mediation is partial, there is still a substantial direct effect of security of property rights on investment. Practical implications Any initiative to land formalization projects needs to consider contract enforcement environment, as presence and size of property rights effects largely depend on whether those rights are properly enforced. Originality/value This is the first study that conceptualizes the mediating effect of contract enforcement on the relationship between property rights and investment from an African country perspective.

scholarly journals The impact of using proportional representation system on the fragmentation of the party system in Algeria. Applied to the elections of the National People’s Assembly (1997–2017)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Mahmoud Mahgoub
Keyword(s):  
Political System ◽  
Party System ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Proportional Representation ◽  
Effective Number ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Representation System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Number Of Parties ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of using proportional representation system on the fragmentation of the party system in the Algerian political system within the period from 1997 to 2017, in which Algeria has experienced five legislative elections regularly every five years by testing a hypothesis about adopting the proportional representation system on the basis of the closed list during the foregoing legislative elections has obviously influenced the exacerbation of the Algerian party system’s fragmentation, compared to other factors. Design/methodology/approach The essence of the theoretical framework of this study is to address the effect of the electoral system as an independent variable on the party system as a dependent variable. The starting point for that framework is to reassess the “Duverger’s law,” which appeared since the early 1950s and has influenced the foregoing relationship, and then to review the literature on a new phase that tried to provide a more accurate mechanism for determining the number of parties and their relative weight, whether in terms of electoral votes or parliamentary seats. This means that researchers began to use a measure called the effective number of parties (ENP) for Laakso and Taagepera since 1979. The study elaborates the general concepts of the electoral system and the party system. It used Laakso, Taagepera index of the “ENP” to measure the phenomenon of fragmentation party during the five legislative elections from 1997 to 2017 in Algeria. Findings The results of the study reveal that the proportional representation electoral system – beside other factors – had clear impacts on the fragmentation of the Algerian party system by all standards, whether on the level of the apparent rise in the number of the parties represented in the Algerian parliament from 10 parties in 1997 election to 36 parties in 2017 election or according to the index of Laakso and Taagepera (ENP). The average number of effective number of electoral parties in the five elections was around 7.66, and the average number of effective number of parliamentary parties in the five elections was around 4.39, which puts Algeria in an advanced degree of the fragmentation of the party system. Originality/value This study about the phenomenon of the fragmentation of the party system, which is one of the new subjects in the field of comparative politics – globally and in the Arab world. Hence, the value of this study aims to shed light on this mysterious area of science, the fragmentation of the party system in the Algerian political system during the period from 1997 to 2017.

scholarly journals Neopatrimonialism and Party Clientelism

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Teimuraz Kareli
Keyword(s):  
Social Groups ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Political Systems ◽  
Dominant Party ◽  
The Government ◽  
Basic Features ◽  
The Right ◽  
Party Dominance ◽  
Ruling Party

The article deals with the features of formation of the party systems in the post-Soviet space. To understand the specific processes, the attention is focused on the inverse logic of the post-Soviet states, the basic features of which can be expressed by the concept of neopatrimonialism. In this context the functioning features of political parties, their principal tasks and the logic of creating the "power party" are described. The article examines the key criteria for the concept of the dominant party, such as its ability to consistently and steadily win the elections, the significant duration of its stay in power, as well as its personnel Control over the government. In the sociopolitical discourse the "power party" enjoys a privileged ideological position and has more opportunities compared to its competitors to appeal to voters. Along with that the party dominance reveals itself not only in its external manifestation (the stay in power), but also in the substantial one – the ability to exercise an effective political choice. The article analyzes the factors of sustainability of the "power party" systems: the historical merits of the "power party"; the ruling party’s ability to effectively take advantage of the electoral system; its strong relationships with the most affluent social groups and major corporations, as well as with the predominant ethnic or linguistic social groups; a privileged access of the ruling party to media resources. These factors are also effective in the polycentric political systems without any dominant party. However, under the dominant party systems they manifest themselves in a complex way, providing the ruling camp with a multi-layered protection due to a synergy effect. Particular attention is paid to the phenomenon of clientelism, widely used by the ruling party as a strategy of political mobilization. However, if discrimination arose by clientelism reaches the level that denies clients the right to choose, this is certainly not consistent with the rules of democracy.

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