EU state aid plans will concern some trade partners

Subject EU state aid. Significance The European Commission has approved more than EUR2.1tn (USD2.4tn) in state aid since March. This significant relaxation of state aid rules -- aimed at preventing businesses from collapsing and protecting them from foreign takeover -- could last for another year or two. At the same time, the Commission is preparing to bolster its scrutiny of aid by non-EU states which gives their firms a competitive advantage over EU ones. Impacts After aviation, those sectors most in need of state aid are other transport sectors, hospitality and tourism. Richer EU countries’ ability to provide much more state aid to its firms will fuel a disjoined economic recovery across the euro-area. The EU’s crackdown on foreign subsidies will likely make it more difficult to reach a trade and investment partnership with China.

Significance The debate is timely, as in the next two months the European Commission will review the fiscal programmes of member states amid calls for further stimulus to boost economic recovery. Impacts The safest and surest way to cut sovereign debt in the most highly-indebted EU states will be by implementing growth-oriented investments. Further calls to cancel government debt will further fuel uncertainty at a time when consensus between euro-area states is most needed. Debt cancellation is highly unlikely because of opposition from euro-area countries with the lowest government-debt-to-GDP ratios.


Subject EU state aid rules. Significance The European Commission relaxed its state aid and competition rules on March 13 and 19 amid the extraordinary pressure on European economic performance resulting from COVID-19. This will give member states more tools to implement substantial fiscal packages to save economic sectors struggling as a result of COVID-19. However, in order to prevent richer countries gaining a competitive advantage, it has imposed strict measures on government-sponsored credit guarantees or interest rate subsidies. Impacts Even a lifting of restrictions within a few weeks will not undo the damage caused already by disruptions to supply chains and labour. If social restrictions persist until mid-2020, further substantial state aid packages will be required for the second half of the year. Firms that were already struggling before COVID-19 will be restricted in terms of the amount of state aid they receive.


Subject Unexpected outcomes in the Greece-troika imbroglio. Significance Negotiations between Greece and its 'troika' of official-sector creditors (the European Commission, ECB and IMF) are taking place amid two meetings of the euro-area finance ministers and one summit of EU leaders before the end of February. While it is impossible to know now what the result will be, it is possible to speculate on the costs and benefits of any given scenario. Impacts If Syriza fails to achieve meaningful debt reduction, it could discredit the political left as well as the notion of EU solidarity. Greek sovereign yields and the Greek stock market are likely to react extremely positively to any deal between the troika and Greece. Financial market exuberance towards Greece will be unwound as the implications of Greece's continuing high debt load become clearer.


Headline EURO-AREA: Economic recovery will support prices trend


Significance Clearing state arrears to the private sector depends on the quartet of international creditors' timely disbursement of financial assistance tranches. The finance ministry is in no position to generate additional tax revenue or cut expenditure. Thus, it is vital to conclude the second review of the third programme and disburse the next 2.8-billion-euro (3.1-billion-dollar) tranche. Impacts The political backlash from angry taxpayers may just be an election away. No euro-area country has achieved economic recovery after seven years of recession on the back of excessive taxation. The 2017 budget draft only increases the unequal distribution of the rising tax burden for private households and corporates.


Subject Italy's budget conflict. Significance June 5 marked a resumption in hostilities between Italy and the EU, after the European Commission sent a letter to Rome saying its spending plans were breaking EU fiscal rules. The Commission will now begin the process of implementing an excessive deficit procedure (EDP) against Italy aimed at reducing its deficit and debt. This will likely involve deficit reduction measures that could precipitate the collapse of the populist government. Impacts If an EDP is blocked, efforts to launch it will start again in September if Italy’s budget preview shows Rome not complying with EU rules. An EDP could lead to higher borrowing costs and make it more difficult for Rome to reduce its excessive debt, which is around 132% of GDP. A League-led right-wing government would push for aggressive tax cuts, potentially leaving Italy in the same predicament that it faces now. The implementation of a parallel currency to boost the supply of money would fuel concerns that Italy is prepared to leave the euro-area.


Headline EURO-AREA: Recovery's sustainability will be doubtful


2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 345-358
Author(s):  
Stavros Papakonstantinidis

Purpose The paper aims to examine the impact of the Greek economic recession on workplace learning. Specifically, it surveys the views of Greek business professionals regarding whether workplace learning could be used as a competitive advantage in achieving business success. Design/methodology/approach The paper follows a qualitative research method and discusses the findings of semi-structured interviews with professionals in various industries in Greece. Findings This study provides evidence of an overall reluctance to adopt formal learning strategies. Although hiring and retaining the best talent at work is seen as a competitive advantage, Greek professionals do not attribute success to formal workplace learning. Instead, digitalization of informal learning becomes essential for acquiring new knowledge. Social implications In the first few years of Greece’s economic recovery, companies aim to keep their budgets low in anything that seems luxurious and ultimately unnecessary. The paper discusses some implications of the implementation of digitalized informal learning in business. Originality/value This study is the first to explore how Greek professionals from various business sectors and managerial levels view workplace learning during the initial years of the country’s economic recovery.


Significance The outgoing administration has bequeathed Biden an incomplete trade policy transition but also some new tools with which to shape relations. Whether and how Biden maintains or reshapes Trump-era policies will have major implications for African integration, trade and investment. Impacts Africa will be a second-order priority for the Biden administration and its focus in the short term will be on COVID-19 recovery. Washington will likely engage in ‘vaccine diplomacy’ with Africa as a quick way to both repair diplomatic ties and aid economic recovery. Although diplomatic relations should improve, US investment in Africa may remain relatively limited over the short term.


Headline EU: COVID threatens to delay economic recovery


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