Draft budget will increase Greek taxpayers' burden

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Financial Assistance ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
The Political ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Unequal Distribution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Private Households ◽  
Political Backlash

Significance Clearing state arrears to the private sector depends on the quartet of international creditors' timely disbursement of financial assistance tranches. The finance ministry is in no position to generate additional tax revenue or cut expenditure. Thus, it is vital to conclude the second review of the third programme and disburse the next 2.8-billion-euro (3.1-billion-dollar) tranche. Impacts The political backlash from angry taxpayers may just be an election away. No euro-area country has achieved economic recovery after seven years of recession on the back of excessive taxation. The 2017 budget draft only increases the unequal distribution of the rising tax burden for private households and corporates.

Syriza may be troika's best hope for Greek deal

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
European Commission ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
The Political ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Left ◽  
Unexpected Outcomes ◽  
Market Exuberance

Subject Unexpected outcomes in the Greece-troika imbroglio. Significance Negotiations between Greece and its 'troika' of official-sector creditors (the European Commission, ECB and IMF) are taking place amid two meetings of the euro-area finance ministers and one summit of EU leaders before the end of February. While it is impossible to know now what the result will be, it is possible to speculate on the costs and benefits of any given scenario. Impacts If Syriza fails to achieve meaningful debt reduction, it could discredit the political left as well as the notion of EU solidarity. Greek sovereign yields and the Greek stock market are likely to react extremely positively to any deal between the troika and Greece. Financial market exuberance towards Greece will be unwound as the implications of Greece's continuing high debt load become clearer.

Italy's Renzi will face critical tests before year-end

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political System ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Political Leadership ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
The Political ◽  
Deep Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance This is a crucial step for the government before year-end, together with long-term banking issues and slowing economic recovery. The European Commission has allowed Italy considerable fiscal flexibility; the government promises to start reducing its debt-to-GDP ratio this year. However, the slowdown could delay achieving this goal. Under this scenario, the government has to campaign for the referendum on its Senate reform. A 'yes' vote is key not only for reforming the political system, but the government's survival. Impacts A 'no' outcome would pull Italy into deep uncertainty concerning its political leadership. It would also end Renzi's premiership; a new majority could follow up to the 2018 general election. However, since Renzi is the PD leader, he is unlikely to support a new government; early elections are likely. In case of a 'yes' outcome, Renzi's premiership will be reinforced, marking a turning point to his declining popularity.

Hardening German attitudes on Greece risk a rupture

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Capital Controls ◽  
Financial Assistance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Deposits ◽  
Reform Programme ◽  
System Collapse ◽  
Greek Government ◽  
The Government

Significance Pressure is intensifying on the negotiators representing the Greek government and its creditors -- most importantly Germany -- to reach some form of agreement allowing the release of sufficient financial assistance for Greece to meet its payment obligations due by the end of June. However, the governing Greek coalition does not appear stable enough to adopt the reform programme demanded by its creditors. Meanwhile, German economic opinion on Greece is hardening, in the gathering belief that the risks to the rest of the euro-area from any concessions to Athens are now greater than those of a possible rupture. Impacts If the Greek negotiations drag on, the government may have to introduce capital controls to stem the outflow of bank deposits. Greece's central bank remains reliant on the ECB to continue authorising ELA, but opposition to ELA in Germany is growing. If the ECB withdrew ELA, Athens's choices would be to meet its creditors' demands, see a financial system collapse or exit the euro.

Economic growth will boost Portugal’s government

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Political System ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
The Political ◽  
Turn Of The Millennium ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mediterranean Countries ◽  
The Eu

Significance Portugal is set for the best five-year period of growth since the turn of the millennium, unemployment is falling and public finances are showing positive signs. The upswing is reflected in the remarkable stability of the political system. Impacts The economic recovery is likely to drive down yields on government bonds. Centeno’s appointment as Eurogroup president will raise Portugal’s standing in the EU. Security concerns in many Mediterranean countries are likely to boost Portugal’s tourism industry.

IMF lending will prod Ukraine to sustain reforms

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Capital Markets ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Capital Markets ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Government

Significance After releasing 1 billion dollars in April, the IMF is urging Ukraine to implement land and pension reforms to make it eligible for further lending tranches. The government is finding it hard to pursue controversial changes opposed by many voters and taken up as causes by the political opposition. Gontareva's resignation reflects a lack of government support and is a setback for the reformist camp. Impacts The 'economic war' emerging alongside armed conflict in the east will dent prospects for growth and reform. Failure to secure further IMF financing could accelerate the planned return to international capital markets, perhaps in the third quarter. Attempts to push through reforms such as land sales may lead to increased political strife but not a full-blown political crisis.

Four disintegration risks may threaten the EU’s future

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
National Front ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Marine Le Pen ◽  
Decisive Victory ◽  
The Eu

Subject Four European disintegration risks. Significance After the French presidential election, which saw the decisive victory of Emmanuel Macron over National Front leader Marine Le Pen, a sigh of relief could be heard in European capitals: the worse had been avoided; the EU would thrive again. This relief could be premature. At least four disintegration risks are still threatening the EU. Impacts Even though its economic prospects are positive, the euro-area remains fragile and could plunge back into chaos if left unreformed. An economic downturn would benefit Eurosceptic populist parties. The political uncertainty of a caretaker government in Germany will increase its officials' reluctance to agree to any euro-area reforms.

EU state aid plans will concern some trade partners

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Competitive Advantage ◽  
European Commission ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
State Aid ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Foreign Takeover ◽  
Trade Partners ◽  
Trade And Investment

Subject EU state aid. Significance The European Commission has approved more than EUR2.1tn (USD2.4tn) in state aid since March. This significant relaxation of state aid rules -- aimed at preventing businesses from collapsing and protecting them from foreign takeover -- could last for another year or two. At the same time, the Commission is preparing to bolster its scrutiny of aid by non-EU states which gives their firms a competitive advantage over EU ones. Impacts After aviation, those sectors most in need of state aid are other transport sectors, hospitality and tourism. Richer EU countries’ ability to provide much more state aid to its firms will fuel a disjoined economic recovery across the euro-area. The EU’s crackdown on foreign subsidies will likely make it more difficult to reach a trade and investment partnership with China.

German fiscal expansion is unlikely despite concerns

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Consequences ◽  
The Third ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Economic Outlook ◽  
The Eu

Significance The economy shrank by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in April-June; further shrinking in the third quarter would mean a technical recession. Since growth is not likely to pick up much in the next two to three quarters, the economic outlook for Germany is gloomy, with potentially significant political consequences. Impacts Germany’s hard-line stance against ambitious euro-area reform is likely to become more entrenched. The implications of a German slowdown for the EU-26 will increase the chances of the ECB using unconventional policy to add stimulus. A recession is likely to have negative effects on Germany’s defence spending, despite US pressure on Berlin to contribute more towards NATO.

Euro-area economic recovery will support prices trend

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type

Headline EURO-AREA: Economic recovery will support prices trend

Low euro-area growth supports case for ECB action

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Private Consumption ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
National Data ◽  
Deposit Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Area Growth ◽  
Near Term

Significance This is the same pace as in the third quarter, marking the eleventh consecutive quarter of expansion. For January-December, growth accelerated to 1.5% from 0.9% in 2014, in line with the December ECB staff projection. National data were generally below market expectations, but confirmed that the recovery remains on track. Impacts Private consumption will remain the primary growth driver in the near term, supported by recovering labour markets and low inflation. Inflation will stay subdued owing to falling oil prices; the recovery is too lacklustre to kick off a rise in prices. The ECB will expand its QE programme in March, cutting the deposit rate deeper into negative territory. After its recent rebound, the euro should weaken again as the ECB eases monetary policy further.

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