Downturn in Greece and abroad will sap property market

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Large Cities ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Push Down ◽  
First Time

Significance This second extension is due to a slower-than-expected fall in cases in the COVID-19 pandemic’s second wave: 904 new infections were reported in the previous 24 hours yesterday, the first time since October 26 that daily cases have fallen below 1,000. The lockdown’s restrictions on economic activity threaten to reverse the nascent economic recovery, including in the real estate market. Impacts An economic downturn in investors’ home markets could dampen demand for Greek properties. The volumes of non-performing loans secured by real estate are expected to rise along with increased corporate insolvencies. An increased supply of properties for long-term residential rentals will push down rents in large cities.

Cyclical capitalization and lag vacancy

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 211-238 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maurizio d’Amato
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Mortgage Lending ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Valuation Process

Purpose This paper aims to propose a new valuation method for income producing properties. The model originally called cyclical dividend discount models (d’Amato, 2003) has been recently proposed as a family of income approach methodologies called cyclical capitalization (d’Amato, 2013; d’Amato, 2015; d’Amato, 2017). Design/methodology/approach The proposed methodology tries to integrate real estate market cycle analysis and forecast inside the valuation process allowing the appraiser to deal with real estate market phases analysis and their consequence in the local real estate market. Findings The findings consist in the creation of a methodology proposed for market value and in particular for mortgage lending determination, as the model may have the capability to reach prudent opinion of value in all the real estate market phase. Research limitations/implications Research limitation consists mainly in a limited number of sample of time series of rent and in the forecast of more than a cap rate or yield rate even if it is quite commonly accepted the cyclical nature of the real estate market. Practical implications The implication of the proposed methodology is a modified approach to direct capitalization finding more flexible approaches to appraise income producing properties sensitive to the upturn and downturn of the real estate market. Social implications The model proposed can be considered useful for the valuation process of those property affected by the property market cycle, both in the mortgage lending and market value determination. Originality/value These methodologies try to integrate in the appraisal process the role of property market cycles. Cyclical capitalization modelling includes in the traditional dividend discount model more than one g-factor to plot property market cycle dealing with the future in a different way. It must be stressed the countercyclical nature of the cyclical capitalization that may be helpful in the determination of mortgage lending value. This is a very important characteristic of such models.

Godrej properties: valuation using the capital cash flow technique

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Rajni Kant Rajhans
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Firm Valuation ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market

Learning outcomes The case is focused to meet the following learning objectives: the readers will be able to recall basic cash flow estimation concepts; and the readers will be able to explain various features of capital cash flow (CCF). The participants will be able to implement the CCF model in real estate firm valuation. The participants will be able to compare CCF and free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) models. The participants will be able to evaluate the benefits of CCF over FCFF. The readers will be able to construct the CCF valuation model for firm valuation. Case overview/synopsis On 19th April 2019, Mr Kai, an analyst tracking real estate firms was excited to present to his team a new robust technique of firm valuation suitable for real estate companies, namely, the CCF technique and was also keen to deliberate on its application. Though the investment scope using this technique could be located in Godrej properties (GP), a reputed brand and the largest listed real estate developer by sales in 2018, yet, he was concerned about the assumptions of growth of real estate industry in India, in general, and the GP in particular. Importantly, this was because the real estate market in India was undergoing many structural changes. For instance, the buyers’ preferences were changing and unsold inventory in the industry was at its peak. Under these market conditions, an announcement was made by GP about a target return on equity of 20% in 2018–2023 expecting a dominant place in the real estate market in India, which also carried the threat of jeopardizing the reputation of GP, if under any circumstance the target was not accomplished. Complexity academic level Masters program. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available for educators only. Subject code CSS: 11 Strategy.

Investor attention for retail and institutional investors: a test on the real estate market

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 314-328
Author(s):  
Gianluca Mattarocci ◽  
Georgios Siligardos
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Institutional Investors ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Investor Attention ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market

PurposeThe paper aims to investigate the relationship between different investor attention proxies for different types of funds (retail vs institutional ones) looking at a sample of real estate funds.Design/methodology/approachThe authors collect data about searching frequency on Google and all the news published in Italian specialized newspapers for a set of real estate funds. Following the approach proposed by Da, Engelberg and Gao, the authors construct a set of attention proxies and they compare the ranking with some summary statistics and evaluate the causality relationship among them using a Granger causality test.FindingsResults demonstrate that online search frequency is relevant for both institutional and retail funds and normally internet data are able to anticipate the news that will be published in the newspapers.Research limitations/implicationsThe analysis proposed is focused only on a small real estate market (Italy) where funds are specialized for the type of investor. A wider database can allow excluding that results achieved are biased by the specific features of the market analysed.Practical implicationsThe role of internet proxies attention measures also for institutional investors demonstrate that the managing companies offering financial instruments reserved to institutional investors should consider both channels of information – newspapers and the internet – to measure any positive or negative sign of investor attention to their products.Originality/valueThe article represents the first analysis of investor attention proxies on the real estate market and the first comparison of investor attention proxies for retail and institutional investors.

Financialisation and development: a case study of Ethiopia

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 138-196
Author(s):  
Anne Löscher
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Debt Levels

Purpose This paper aims to shed light on financial development in Ethiopia and its implications for overall economic development. It does so with particular focus on development understood as industrial development and with special attention drawn on inequality and debt levels as well as the real estate market in Ethiopia. Two research questions are focussed on in particular, where the first serves as prerequisite for the assessment of the second: What kind of financial development took place in Ethiopia in the past quarter of a century? Furthermore, are processes of financialisation visible in Ethiopia, and if so, to what effect? Design/methodology/approach The paper is based on publicly available macro-data and qualitative and quantitative data collected by the author herself during a three months’ research stay in Ethiopia. Findings It is found that despite higher levels of financial inclusion and deepening, industrialisation is on a relative decline. What is more, inequality and debt levels increase, and the recent growth spurts seem to be rooted in the construction sector with prices in the real estate market surging. In can be concluded that despite a flourishing financial sector, the Ethiopian economy is faced with the peril of crises associated with an inflated real estate market, inequality, debt burdens and impeded industrialisation. Originality/value African economies and, in particular, the development and effects of financial markets are still a blind spot in economic research. By combining quantitative and qualitative data on and gathered in Ethiopia, this paper therefore conducts greenfield research.

Building sales: advertising and the property market

2018 ◽  
pp. 168-207
Author(s):  
Conor Lucey
Keyword(s):  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Luxury Goods ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
House Building

Having examined the building and decorating of the urban house, this chapter explores how the artisan approached marketing and selling real estate. As the first sustained analysis of property advertising in the eighteenth and early nineteenth-century Atlantic world, this chapter first considers how regional variations and social demographics (aristocratic audiences in London and Dublin compared with merchant audiences in Boston and Philadelphia) dictated the form and content of property notices, reflecting on issues such as location, quality of structural and decorative finish, convenience, and decorum. But while house-building and house-selling were principally economic activities, representing the motivating force for building mechanics to enter the real estate market, the evidence from property advertisements reveals that builders were cognizant of the semantics of advertising rhetoric and employed a vocabulary that emulated that of auctioneers, luxury goods manufacturers and other polite retailers.

scholarly journals The Problem of Competition on Real Estate Market on the Example of the Local Housing Market in Olsztyn

2013 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oksana Kuryj-Wysocka ◽  
Radosław Wiśniewski
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Price Competition ◽  
Free Market ◽  
Fundamental Principle ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Property Market ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Real Estate Market

Abstract In the economic theory, competition is considered to be a fundamental principle of the free market. Due to the competition, customers get lower prices, better service quality, more and more choices. The competition in the real estate market is a very important factor in its development. Buying or selling real estate is often one of the most important financial transactions, which require the purchaser. With the reference to the above, the participants of the real estate market need to analyse a number of transactions and do a detailed understanding of the market before making a decision and finding a deal that meets all the expectations which will not be diverging significantly from remaining offers functioning in the given area of the market. The phenomenon of competition is very advantageous for buyers of a real estate, because it shows a wide range of various possibilities which one should consider before making a final choice. Times of crisis trigger a tendency of the growing competition in the property market, what results in a decrease in real estate prices. This article brings up the issue of price and non-price competition on the real estate market and the influence which it exerts on the decision of the purchaser. The aim of this paper is to present the phenomenon of the competition at three levels (levels), by examining what relationship occurs between the entities functioning on the market, what occurs between entities and objects, and how the entities, i.e. individual real estate, compete with each other. This study will be conducted with methods of statistical analysis of the market, however Herfindahl-Hirschman Index will be used to measure competition on the local real estate market.

scholarly journals Calendar Effects on the Real Estate Market

2013 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 13-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justyna Brzezicka ◽  
Radosław Wiśniewski
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Behavioral Sciences ◽  
The Real ◽  
Calendar Effects ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Seasonal Diversity

Abstract Social and economic phenomena that rely on "soft" factors to explain the market reality supply highly valuable observations. Behavioral elements should not be omitted in analyses of the real estate market because the latest developments in behavioral sciences significantly contribute to our understanding of this market. The popularity of behavioral research in social and economic sciences provokes an examination of the significance of behavioral analyses on the real estate market. As an object of social and economic inquiry, the property market can benefit from recent achievements in behavioral sciences which expand the explanatory potential of studies based on the neoclassical model. This paper analyzes calendar anomalies, generally referred to as calendar effects, on the real estate market. This phenomenon has been observed on the capital market and has been investigated and described by behavioral finance. The research hypothesis tested in this study is that calendar effects are present on the real estate market. This paper aims to: 1) review calendar effects as model phenomena on the real estate market, 2) determine whether calendar effects occur on the real estate market and, if so, identify those anomalies, 3) determine whether and to what extent the real estate market is governed by seasonal diversity, 4) explain the significance of calendar effects to the real estate market. Research goals were pursued based on analyses of real estate transactions conducted in Olsztyn between 2004 and 2011.

How different actors shape the real estate market for informal settlements in Lagos

2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 371-388
Author(s):  
Akunnaya Pearl Opoko ◽  
Adedapo Adewunmi Oluwatayo ◽  
Bayo Amole ◽  
Ekundayo Adeyemi
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Informal Settlements ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Market Needs

The literature indicates that most housing in the urban areas of many countries in the global South is in informal settlements, provided through informal mechanisms that are often not well understood. This paper contributes to understanding the forces influencing real estate markets in informal settlements, drawing on a case study of the under-researched Ayobo community in Lagos, Nigeria. The paper examines the roles played by government agencies and other market actors, including buyers, sellers, informants, financiers and witnesses, in relation to the operation and regulation of informal land markets. The analysis of the data, drawn from a survey and interviews, reveals a thriving property market, which is socially if not formally regulated. The paper concludes that this flourishing informal market needs strengthening to effectively meet the housing needs of urban residents.

Visual Documents, Property Archives, and the Map of the City of Rome: 1563–1712

2012 ◽  
Vol 71 (3) ◽  
pp. 278-305
Author(s):  
David Friedman
Keyword(s):  
Sixteenth Century ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Fundamental Change ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
First Time ◽  
The City ◽  
The Way

The libri delle case are inventories of buildings that were produced by the pious institutions of Rome—convents, confraternities, hospitals—beginning in the second half of the sixteenth century. They are based on images—first plans, later elevations and even sections—and for that reason are different from all earlier inventories. In Visual Documents, Property Archives, and the Map of the City of Rome: 1563–1712, David Friedman discusses how the introduction of images transformed both the organization and the content of the archives. Introduced at a moment of dramatic change in the real estate market, they are the means by which the documentary record focused for the first time on the physical qualities of property. The plans document a fundamental change in the way the city itself was understood. First recorded as isolated objects, the houses of the later libri are set in increasingly wide physical contexts, reflecting a vision of the city as a continuous spatial field.

A spatiotemporal exploratory analysis of real estate sales in Turkey using GIS

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 207-226
Author(s):  
Saffet Erdoğan ◽  
Abdulkadir Memduhoğlu
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Spatiotemporal Analysis ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Investment Planning ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Real Estate Sales

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the real estate sales in Turkey on a district basis to reveal the current state of real estate sales and any meaningful changes in the last period. The real estate market is important and is an indicator of the country’s general economic health, as real estate is seen as an investment.Design/methodology/approachAs a powerful method of spatial analysis and evaluation, geographic information systems have been used to examine real estate data in both spatial and temporal ways. In this study, 14 years of sales data covering the years 2004 to 2017 obtained from government agencies on a district basis were evaluated using spatiotemporal methods. Several maps were produced using Getis-Ord Gi* and local Moran’s I indices, which showed the spatiotemporal change of sales and sales rates.FindingsWhen looking at the maps, provinces such as Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Antalya and their surrounding districts have buoyant real estate markets compared to the other side of the country. Real estate sales are more stagnant in the eastern and northern parts of the country. In addition, the authors found that the growth rate of annual average real estate sales was approximately seven times higher than the annual average population growth.Originality/valueThis spatiotemporal study, which presents 14 years of performance data of the real estate market and, by extension, the economic situation, also highlights the regions that stand out for investment planning throughout the country. The results of spatiotemporal analysis also present a new way of real estate market visualization using maps with well-designed categorizations.

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