Mortgage Lending Market in Modern Russia: a Multidimensional Approach .

The market of one of the most basic participants of the market of housing and communal services – credit organizations is considered. A statistical analysis of mortgage housing lending in Russia was carried out, the classification of the regions of the Russian Federation according to two groups of indicators was carried out: according to the indicators of the housing and communal services market and indicators of the level of socio-economic development of regions by cluster analysis methods and it was shown that not all regions (36 regions) correspond to their levels of groups according to two groups of indicators. The reasons for the development of regions according to the state of development of the housing and communal services market are revealed.

Mathematical Models for Calculation of the Parameters of the Bank and the Borrower in the Mortgage Lending

The article covers the consideration of the issues of analysis and development of mathematical models to improve the efficiency of the mortgage lending system. The relevance of the study is due to the fact that the current mechanisms of mortgage lending in Russia do not correspond to global trends: by interest rates level; in terms of the volume of loans issued and other conditions. However, it is one of the main tools that allows to improve the population’s living conditions and, as a result, to release the socio-economic tension caused by this factor, as well as to attract additional input in the investment and construction sector, which in modern conditions is one of the most important problems. As a result of the research carried out, the article offers a mathematical model for calculating the parameters of the bank and the borrower, in order to form the most acceptable conditions for the loan. In the mathematical model, such parameters of the borrower and the lender as the price of the apartment, the percentage of the down payment from its price, the mortgage loan rate, the total debt and the loan term, as well as the share of the borrower's income allocated to monthly payments are interconnected. This model will allow the bank to determine the most suitable loan conditions regarding the payment amount, term, and available credit limit, and the borrower to calculate the parameters of the loan in order to make an informed decision on attracting it. All this, in the end, will allow banks to reduce the level of risk on issued mortgage loans, and the borrower — confidence in the ability to pay off the mortgage loan.

Revealing of the specificity of mortgage housing lending based on the results of clustering of regions

Subject. This article deals with the particularities of the development of housing mortgage lending in the regions of Russia. Objectives. The article aims to substantiate the need for clustering of territorial entities by level of development of mortgage housing lending in Russia and test the most effective algorithm for mortgage clustering of regions. Methods. For the study, we used a systems approach, including scientific abstraction, analysis and synthesis, and statistical methods of data analysis. The algorithm k-medoids – Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM) was also used. Results. Based on the results of the study of regional statistics of the Russian Federation, the article reveals a significant asymmetry in the values of key socioeconomic indices that determine the level and dynamics of housing mortgages in the regions. This necessitates the clustering of territorial entities according to the level of development of mortgage housing lending in the country. To take into account the impact of various local conditions in assessing the prospects for the development of regional housing mortgages, the article proposes an indicator, namely, the integral regional mortgage affordability index. On its basis, in accordance with the selected clustering procedure, the article identifies five mortgage clusters in Russia and identifies their representative regions. Conclusions. Based on the analysis of the specificity of the development of regional mortgages in the Tula Oblast, taking into account the implementation of the target State programme, the article concludes that it is necessary to improve the mechanisms for financing regional mortgage programmes and justifies the need to develop differentiated programmes for the development of housing mortgages in groups of Russian regions.

German banks’ behavior in the low interest rate environment

Using data from a quantitative survey of German banks at three points in time (2015, 2017 and 2019), we analyze the impact of changes in the interest rate level on banks’ net interest income and the countermeasures they take. A decline in the interest rate level has a more negative impact on net interest income, the longer the decline lasts and the lower the interest rate level is. This impact softens with increasing risk of changes in the present value of banking books. We do not find that banks generally increase their risks following a drop in income. However, poorly capitalized banks subsequently increase the credit risk of their bond portfolio. After a fall in operational income, banks increase their fee and commission income and reduce their costs. In addition, banks tend to extend their mortgage lending after a drop in their interest income.

Impact of Government Measures to Support Mortgage Lending on Housing Affordability in Russia: Regional Evidence

This study investigates housing affordability in Russia: factors of affordability, quantitative indicators, and government support measures. We are especially interested in the mortgage rate subsidy programmes that were implemented in 2015–2016 and 2020–2021 and their impact on housing affordability indicators. In order to evaluate impact of the first programme, we use a model of the real estate market and we decompose the index of housing affordability into different factors. As a result of our econometric analysis, we conclude that in general the programme was successful. Data about the second programme are not yet sufficient, so we evaluate its impact by a statistical analysis of the dynamics of the main indicators. We conclude that the impact is ambiguous: up until a particular moment (different in different regions), borrowers could benefit from the programme, but after that moment the increase in housing prices caused by the programme itself were exceeding the benefits from the subsidised rates. In conclusion, we provide some methods to improve the effectiveness of government measures to support housing affordability, which could be useful in the development of new programmes.

Organizational and financial mechanism for ensuring financial and economic security of the banking-system

an organizational and financial mechanism for ensuring the financial and economic security of a commercial bank is proposed, which, in real time and in situations that cannot be controlled using traditional methods, will minimize potential risks and change the internal institutional environment, positively affecting the financial and economic security of the country's banking system. It is shown that economic growth as a factor of national security is supported by the effective functioning of the banking system and the priority of long-term bank loans provided in the form of investments, which makes it possible to determine the relationship between the growth of the country's economy and the level of financial and economic security of the banking system. The main approaches to ensuring the financial and economic security of the banking system are considered, which include the structure of the primary interests of a commercial bank and indicators of the level of financial and economic security of the banking sector of Ukraine in order to ensure economic stabilization and strengthen the economic potential of the bank. It was noted that an adequate and fundamental marketing strategy will help to promote the growth of the bank's profitability, attract additional customers, form a resource base and reduce risk in banking. Mortgage lending is considered as the most effective tool for attracting funds from the population to the investment sector and meeting their needs for housing. A distinctive feature of the presented organizational and financial mechanism is the use of strategic management methods to form economic resources, improve the image and level of security of information systems, organize effective management of the bank's personnel, which will create conditions for ensuring the proper level of protection against negative factors and threats and increasing the competitiveness of the bank due to increasing the efficiency of the provision of banking services, preserving banking secrecy and the client base, creating new banking products

Investment mortgage as an innovative banking product in the real estate financing market

Subject. This article discusses the role of investment mortgage in overcoming the crisis of attracting deposits by credit institutions and stimulating the investment activity of households in the real estate financing market. Objectives. The article aims to define particularities of investment mortgage and prospects for its development in the real estate funding market, and ways to improve the quality of mortgage bonds in the investment mortgage segment using artificial intelligence technologies in underwriting. Methods. For the study, I used the systems approach, comparative and logical analyses. Results. The article presents an author-developed definition of the Investment Mortgage category, its basic elements, and it describes the investment mortgage life cycle and risks. It also proposes to supplement the scoring through using the gradient boosting technique when underwriting a credit application for investment mortgage. Conclusions and Relevance. The investment mortgage segment, including mortgage deposit and mortgage loan, has a life cycle and risks that differ from the ones of the mortgage programs implemented in the banking services market. Using the gradient boosting technique can help improve the efficiency of underwriting applications for mortgage lending and investment mortgage. The results of the study can be used by credit organizations when developing a product line of mortgage lending programs in the investment mortgage segment, and digitizing credit underwriting of mortgage borrowers.

Models of multiple regression as an instrument of regional mortgage markets’ functioning effectiveness assessment

The article is dedicated to issues related to the formation of the Russian Federation regions economically justified classifications by housing mortgage lending (HML) systems stage of development, for the implementation of mortgage markets selective government adjustment policy. The purpose of the study is to develop the methodology of regions mortgage potential assessment based on the search of additional application solutions in the area of rapid assessment and forecasting of regional mortgage markets state. To achieve the purpose, an additional version of common methodology of Russian Federation regions systematic ranking by HML systems stage of development is represented, and its main steps are structured. Within the third step of new methodology, a multiple regression model of Factor 1 (F1) is developed, which was interpreted in authors early studies as a performance indicator of regional mortgage markets functioning effectiveness. The models development was based on the statistical processings results of 510 observations in 85 Russian Federation regions in a period from 2014 to 2019. The high accuracy of models approximation has been proved, as well as its statistical reliability. The application capabilities of the model are represented, particularly the results of period 2020-2021 forecasting for Samara region and Saint-Petersburg city. The ways of managing the rating of region through targeted distribution of available regional and federal resources received by the models predictors are outlined. The novelty of this study is contained in the results of adaptation of the new assessment methodology, which is based on the obtainment of multiple regression model for Factor 1. The methodology base of the study consists of systematic analysis methods and multivariate statistics, particularly regressive and correlation analysis methods.

Fracking Disclosure, Collateral Value, and the Mortgage Market

This paper examines whether laws requiring oil and gas firms to disclose the chemicals used in their fracking operations affect the mortgage lending activity for properties located in nearby areas. I hypothesize and find that the disclosure mandate reduces uncertainty about the value of housing collateral and subsequently increases 1) the probability of obtaining a mortgage by 2.5 percentage points (pp) and 2) loan-to-value by 2.2 pp. My main analyses exploit the variation in the location of properties relative to fracking wells. Cross-sectional tests that exploit heterogeneity in drinking water sources and the content of firm disclosures further substantiate my inferences and mitigate endogeneity concerns. These findings suggest that disclosure regulation for oil and gas firms affects housing collateral values, thereby impacting the mortgage market.