Israel-Iran escalation is possible before end-2020

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Intelligence Agency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
President Elect

Significance The killing is widely attributed to Israel's intelligence agency, Mossad. Amir-Abdollahian also suggested that Israel could not have been acting alone, pointing the finger at Washington. Impacts Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could pay a price for escalatory action in his relationship with US President-elect Joe Biden. Other Iranian scientists may feel increasingly insecure and ultimately consider moving away from their involvement in the nuclear project. If an Iranian retaliation were high-profile or high-casualty, the Israeli military response would be immediate and disproportionate.

Iraqi premier’s post-poll chances depend on Sadrists

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Press Report ◽  
International Engagement

Significance This comes as local press report that powerful Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr might be prepared to lift his election boycott, on certain conditions. Sadrist backing was crucial to the appointment of incumbent Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi. Impacts Kadhimi will try to reinforce his image as a statesman through high-profile international engagement and investment deals. Sadr’s indecision or desire for a longer campaign period could potentially lead to a delay of the polls from October. Developments in Iran-US nuclear deal return talks in Vienna will be important to the security situation in Iraq.

Uganda former PM aspirant will provoke backlash

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Internal Disruption ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Police Forces

Subject Pre-election politics in Uganda. Significance The long-expected announcement on June 15 by sacked Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi that he will run for president will bring bitter tensions between him and President Yoweri Museveni out into the open. It is highly unlikely to threaten the latter's 30-year rule but may provoke internal disruption within the ruling party as Museveni makes an example of internal dissent. Impacts Loyalty among the military and police forces will remain central to Museveni's power. Museveni effectively distances himself from graft scandals, while Mbabazi's reputation remains tarnished by several high-profile cases. Oil firms could see some benefits, if Museveni decides to assure them of his solid hold on power. The government was already likely to unleash inflation-inducing spending during the election, but Mbabazi's campaign increases this risk.

Departure of New Zealand’s Key may open 2017 election

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Minority Government ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
President Elect ◽  
National Coalition

Significance The unexpected departure of a popular prime minister opens up more space for opposition parties in the next election due by early November 2017. On Key’s watch, New Zealand weathered the 2007-09 global financial crisis, rebuilt from the 2011 Christchurch earthquake, strengthened public finances and kicked off negotiations for the now moribund Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal to tie its export-driven economy to growing markets on the Pacific Rim. Impacts A re-elected National coalition or minority government reliant on New Zealand First would lead to greater policy instability. The next prime minister could inherit the problem of rising interest rates hitting leveraged homeowners. US President-elect Donald Trump’s positions on security, trade and climate policy could see Wellington focus more on ties with Asia.

Prospects for Russian politics in 2021

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
President Elect ◽  
Russian Politics

Significance Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin will drive domestic governance while Kremlin 'political managers' direct the election. Abroad, the election of US President-elect Joe Biden presents opportunities as well as challenges.

Russian protests challenge Kremlin's election strategy

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Bomb Attack ◽  
Public Concerns

Significance The March 26 protests in more than 100 cities were led by opposition campaigner and would-be presidential contender Alexey Navalny. Centred on corruption allegations against Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, the protests expose elite vulnerabilities ahead of next year's presidential election. They also revealed a new vein of anti-government sentiment among young people and in provincial centres. Impacts The April 3 bomb attack in St Petersburg may be used as an argument to curb freedom of assembly further. Putin will hope that high-profile targeted arrests directed from above will be enough to defuse public concerns about corruption. Younger protesters may escape retribution but 'patriotic' initiatives are unlikely to engage them.

Ukraine president gains from economic data and policy

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Economic Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Monetary Stability ◽  
Financial Restraint ◽  
President Elect ◽  
The Government ◽  
Constructive Engagement ◽  
The Imf

Significance The decision to reduce gas prices -- a gift to President-elect Volodymyr Zelensky, as it chimes with the anti-austerity messaging of his election campaign -- and not to raise them as the IMF wants, was officially announced on April 24. However, it was outlined by Prime Minister Volodymyr Groisman in March, before the election. Zelensky inherits an economy in recovery, although last year's growth rate was mostly due to maize, sunflower seed and little else. He has not yet articulated an economic programme, but his team is promising constructive engagement with the IMF, soothing concerns about anti-austerity populism. Impacts The disruption of supply chains and maritime freight mean Ukraine's economy will take years to return to 2013 levels. IMF support for monetary and financial restraint will encourage reformers in Moldova and other post-Soviet states to craft similar policies. With the advantage of monetary stability, the government is likely to use Eurobonds to restructure and service its foreign debt.

Taro Kono could be Japan’s next prime minister

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Administrative Reform ◽  
Foreign Affairs ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Prime Ministers ◽  
High Profile ◽  
New Directions

Significance He has held high-profile posts since 2015, as minister for foreign affairs and then defence during Shinzo Abe's administration. He now oversees Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s signature ‘digitalisation’ campaign as minister for administrative reform. Last month, Suga made him ‘COVID-19 vaccine czar’, adding to his portfolio. Impacts Under Kono, the LDP would be taken in new directions after Suga’s continuity strategy. Kono is neo-liberal on social and economic policy and less of a cultural conservative than recent prime ministers. Despite his fluent English and contacts in Washington, Kono would tilt foreign policy in an Asia-centric direction.

Japan's new defence minister sustains far-right's sway

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
War Crimes ◽  
Comfort Women ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Lower House ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Right ◽  
Yasukuni Shrine

Subject Profile of Minister of Defence Tomomi Inada. Significance Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's appointment this month of Tomomi Inada as defence minister was depicted as provocative by spokespeople in Seoul and Beijing. South Korea's SBS television called her "a right-winger who rejects the comfort women issue and the rulings of the Tokyo [war crimes] tribunal", while Chinese state-run television reported that Inada "has visited Yasukuni Shrine many times" and "denies Japan's history of aggression". Inada has occupied a high-profile role since her election to the lower house in 2005, and even before that championed revisionist causes. Impacts As a new face in a key cabinet position Inada will refresh the LDP's image. In interviews since her appointment Inada has shown restraint, suggesting that policy will not shift markedly to the right. Abe's government has always had close links with the far right; Inada's appointment is not a new direction.

Tunisia’s anti-corruption drive could be divisive

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Transition ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Emergency Powers ◽  
The Government

Subject Anti-corruption campaign. Significance Tunisian Prime Minister Youssef Chahed is pursuing a high-profile campaign against corruption, which has won him public support but also raised questions about his reliance on emergency powers. Anger over corruption has become widespread, and this campaign has improved Chahed’s standing at a time when his coalition government was criticised for ineffectiveness. Impacts Despite fractures within the ruling coalition, the alliance between Nidaa Tounes and Ennahda is in both parties’ interests and will endure. The democratic transition is making progress, but the government has only piecemeal remedies to counter widespread socio-economic protests. Coming municipal elections could restore some of the influence of Islamist party Ennahda.

Trump win may benefit China in ASEAN and Cambodia

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Relations ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Development Aid ◽  
Xi Jinping ◽  
Phnom Penh ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
President Elect ◽  
Operating Constraints

Subject Cambodian politics and foreign relations, including Beijing and Washington. Significance Following up on his pre-election enthusiasm for the Republican candidate, Prime Minister Hun Sen congratulated US President-elect Donald Trump on his election win on November 9. In the wake of the October 13-14 visit of China's President Xi Jinping to Cambodia, this is adding to media speculation about what Trump's policy towards South-east Asia might be, and how it might affect Cambodian domestic politics and the dynamics of the Beijing-Phnom Penh relationship. Impacts Western calls are unlikely to be the catalyst for improvements in Cambodian human rights and democracy. The Cambodian People's Party will leverage Chinese development aid to try to gain electoral advantage. Cambodia's opposition could suffer electorally because of operating constraints.

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