Prospects for Russian politics in 2021

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
President Elect ◽  
Russian Politics

Significance Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin will drive domestic governance while Kremlin 'political managers' direct the election. Abroad, the election of US President-elect Joe Biden presents opportunities as well as challenges.

Departure of New Zealand’s Key may open 2017 election

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Minority Government ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
President Elect ◽  
National Coalition

Significance The unexpected departure of a popular prime minister opens up more space for opposition parties in the next election due by early November 2017. On Key’s watch, New Zealand weathered the 2007-09 global financial crisis, rebuilt from the 2011 Christchurch earthquake, strengthened public finances and kicked off negotiations for the now moribund Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal to tie its export-driven economy to growing markets on the Pacific Rim. Impacts A re-elected National coalition or minority government reliant on New Zealand First would lead to greater policy instability. The next prime minister could inherit the problem of rising interest rates hitting leveraged homeowners. US President-elect Donald Trump’s positions on security, trade and climate policy could see Wellington focus more on ties with Asia.

Ukraine president gains from economic data and policy

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Economic Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Monetary Stability ◽  
Financial Restraint ◽  
President Elect ◽  
The Government ◽  
Constructive Engagement ◽  
The Imf

Significance The decision to reduce gas prices -- a gift to President-elect Volodymyr Zelensky, as it chimes with the anti-austerity messaging of his election campaign -- and not to raise them as the IMF wants, was officially announced on April 24. However, it was outlined by Prime Minister Volodymyr Groisman in March, before the election. Zelensky inherits an economy in recovery, although last year's growth rate was mostly due to maize, sunflower seed and little else. He has not yet articulated an economic programme, but his team is promising constructive engagement with the IMF, soothing concerns about anti-austerity populism. Impacts The disruption of supply chains and maritime freight mean Ukraine's economy will take years to return to 2013 levels. IMF support for monetary and financial restraint will encourage reformers in Moldova and other post-Soviet states to craft similar policies. With the advantage of monetary stability, the government is likely to use Eurobonds to restructure and service its foreign debt.

Israel-Iran escalation is possible before end-2020

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Intelligence Agency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
President Elect

Significance The killing is widely attributed to Israel's intelligence agency, Mossad. Amir-Abdollahian also suggested that Israel could not have been acting alone, pointing the finger at Washington. Impacts Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could pay a price for escalatory action in his relationship with US President-elect Joe Biden. Other Iranian scientists may feel increasingly insecure and ultimately consider moving away from their involvement in the nuclear project. If an Iranian retaliation were high-profile or high-casualty, the Israeli military response would be immediate and disproportionate.

Trump win may benefit China in ASEAN and Cambodia

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Relations ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Development Aid ◽  
Xi Jinping ◽  
Phnom Penh ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
President Elect ◽  
Operating Constraints

Subject Cambodian politics and foreign relations, including Beijing and Washington. Significance Following up on his pre-election enthusiasm for the Republican candidate, Prime Minister Hun Sen congratulated US President-elect Donald Trump on his election win on November 9. In the wake of the October 13-14 visit of China's President Xi Jinping to Cambodia, this is adding to media speculation about what Trump's policy towards South-east Asia might be, and how it might affect Cambodian domestic politics and the dynamics of the Beijing-Phnom Penh relationship. Impacts Western calls are unlikely to be the catalyst for improvements in Cambodian human rights and democracy. The Cambodian People's Party will leverage Chinese development aid to try to gain electoral advantage. Cambodia's opposition could suffer electorally because of operating constraints.

Prospects for Japan in 2017

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Future ◽  
President Elect

Subject Prospects for Japan in 2017. Significance Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is secure in his position as leader and as popular with the public as ever. However, economic resurgence remains elusive and grave questions hang over the future of Japan's most important international relationship under the incoming US administration led by President-elect Donald Trump.

Canada-US ties will see fewer irritants under Biden

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
Keystone Xl ◽  
Keystone Xl Pipeline

Significance Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is preparing to welcome a more predictable and stable partner in Biden than outgoing Republican President Donald Trump. However, Biden is also expected quickly to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline, cutting another lifeline to Canada’s oil industry and creating some strain in Canada-US ties. Impacts Improved Canada-US ties will persist even if Trudeau loses the next federal election to Conservative Erin O’Toole. Canada will re-engage militarily with UN peacekeeping and NATO deployments. Trudeau will encourage Biden to end US prosecution of Meng Wanzhou, allowing Canada to release her; Biden may agree. Canada’s border with the United States will open in stages as COVID-19 recedes. Ottawa will push Biden to end ‘Buy American’ procurement policies, with little success.

Neither side is ready to step back in Georgian crisis

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
National Movement ◽  
Election Victory ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The authorities went ahead with the arrest of Nika Melia, leader of the opposition United National Movement (UNM), on February 23 even after the prime minister resigned in protest. Georgian Dream's actions have caused concern in Western capitals that approved its election victory when the opposition cried foul. Impacts The crisis is a setback for the government's stated plan to apply for EU membership in 2024. There is growing talk in the United States about individual sanctions targeting Ivanishvili and his associates. Political turmoil will harm hopes of foreign direct investment and the imminent Anaklia port tender.

UK prime minister will likely remain in power for now

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Culture Wars ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Party Leader ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
The Eu

Significance As many as a dozen lockdown parties are now alleged to have been held at Downing Street, significantly damaging Johnson’s support among the public and his Conservative Party. His position as party leader and prime minister is gravely threatened. Impacts Johnson’s domestic troubles, coupled with rising economic concerns, increase the chance of an agreement with the EU over Northern Ireland. Disillusionment with Johnson, opposition to net-zero and culture wars open the door for Nigel Farage’s Reform Party to revive its appeal. Rising inflation threatens to undermine consumer confidence and slow the economic recovery over the coming year.

Assassination threatens to destabilise Haiti further

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The State ◽  
Gang Violence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The assassination follows months of political turmoil and rising gang violence and comes just weeks before elections, scheduled for September 26. Interim Prime Minister Claude Joseph, who has taken charge of the country, said yesterday that measures were being taken “to guarantee the continuity of the state and to protect the nation". Impacts Further political assassinations would exacerbate unrest. The Dominican Republic has closed its border, fearing a migrant surge; the situation will bolster public support there for a border wall. The UN Security Council meets today and may authorise emergency action in Haiti; any substantial redeployment, however, would take time.

PM's death will prompt new Ivorian succession struggle

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Legislative Election ◽  
Economic Inequalities

Significance His death was announced a day after the March 6 legislative election results showed the ruling Rally of Houphouetists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP) secured 137 out of 254 contested seats. Bakayoko’s death has opened up a race to succeed President Alassane Ouattara at the end of his third and final term in 2025. Impacts Ouattara will likely hand-pick his successor again and seek to spearhead the RHDP’s 2025 campaign. An emboldened opposition will seek to exploit the government’s failure to stem widening economic inequalities. A new prime minister will struggle to create jobs and alleviate poverty to stem public anger and boost his popularity.

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