Trump win may benefit China in ASEAN and Cambodia

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Relations ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Development Aid ◽  
Xi Jinping ◽  
Phnom Penh ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
President Elect ◽  
Operating Constraints

Subject Cambodian politics and foreign relations, including Beijing and Washington. Significance Following up on his pre-election enthusiasm for the Republican candidate, Prime Minister Hun Sen congratulated US President-elect Donald Trump on his election win on November 9. In the wake of the October 13-14 visit of China's President Xi Jinping to Cambodia, this is adding to media speculation about what Trump's policy towards South-east Asia might be, and how it might affect Cambodian domestic politics and the dynamics of the Beijing-Phnom Penh relationship. Impacts Western calls are unlikely to be the catalyst for improvements in Cambodian human rights and democracy. The Cambodian People's Party will leverage Chinese development aid to try to gain electoral advantage. Cambodia's opposition could suffer electorally because of operating constraints.

Israeli coalition government will stay strong

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Fourth Term ◽  
Social Affairs

Subject Israeli domestic politics update. Significance Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's cabinet unanimously approved a bi-annual state budget for 2017 and 2018 on August 12. While the budget reflects a policy of greater spending on social affairs and lower taxes, its main importance is political. Once approved by the Knesset in November, the budget will pave the way for Netanyahu to remain prime minister until the next elections, at present scheduled for early 2019. Impacts In his fourth term, with more than ten years as prime minister, Netanyahu faces no major threats to his leadership. No progress is expected in the Israeli-Palestinian process in the short-to-medium term. Israel will seek to secure a ten-year deal on US military aid before end-2016.

Prospects for Japan in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
House Election

Subject Prospects for Japan in 2016. Significance The upper house election due in July will be the focus of domestic politics in the first half of 2016. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has announced 'three new arrows' of Abenomics, but the economy has flipped back into recession.

Departure of New Zealand’s Key may open 2017 election

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Minority Government ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
President Elect ◽  
National Coalition

Significance The unexpected departure of a popular prime minister opens up more space for opposition parties in the next election due by early November 2017. On Key’s watch, New Zealand weathered the 2007-09 global financial crisis, rebuilt from the 2011 Christchurch earthquake, strengthened public finances and kicked off negotiations for the now moribund Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal to tie its export-driven economy to growing markets on the Pacific Rim. Impacts A re-elected National coalition or minority government reliant on New Zealand First would lead to greater policy instability. The next prime minister could inherit the problem of rising interest rates hitting leveraged homeowners. US President-elect Donald Trump’s positions on security, trade and climate policy could see Wellington focus more on ties with Asia.

Pakistan military will repel threats to its authority

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Senior Officers ◽  
The Military

Subject The Pakistan military's influence on domestic politics. Significance Parliament last month passed legislation extending the tenure of the current chief of army staff, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, for another three years. This followed a November ruling by the Supreme Court striking down an extension granted by Prime Minister Imran Khan's government. While Pakistan struggles to ease its economic woes and secure diplomatic support for its position on Kashmir, over which it disputes sovereignty with India, the politically powerful military is orchestrating efforts to mediate peace in Afghanistan and consolidate relations with key partners. Impacts The military will ensure that Khan remains in power, as it regards him as a suitably acquiescent prime minister. Most political parties will toe the military's line. Bajwa's likely successor as army chief, Faiz Hameed, may lack the charisma to command the same loyalty from senior officers.

East-west EU divides will persist under new Commission

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
Spheres Of Influence ◽  
The Status ◽  
Dominant Parties ◽  
President Elect ◽  
European People’S Party ◽  
Commission President

Subject CEE influence in the new Commission. Significance Disunited Central-Eastern Europe (CEE) lacks the power to influence EU agenda-building and needs support from others. This increases the role of French President Emmanuel Macron as his administration, the Renew Europe group, European Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen and the European People's Party (EPP) divide spheres of influence in the Eastern EU. Impacts Maintaining the status quo will require functional collaboration between EU member states and getting CEE on board. Interest in further enlargement will continue to fade and Western Balkan support for the EU will fall without more EU involvement. Pro-EU and social modernisation movements may form in some CEE states in reaction to the dominant parties of recent years.

Prospects for Russian politics in 2021

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
President Elect ◽  
Russian Politics

Significance Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin will drive domestic governance while Kremlin 'political managers' direct the election. Abroad, the election of US President-elect Joe Biden presents opportunities as well as challenges.

Prospects for East Asia in the third quarter of 2015

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South China Sea ◽  
East Asia ◽  
South China ◽  
Political System ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The South China Sea ◽  
Xi Jinping ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
China’S Economy

Subject Prospects for East Asia in the third quarter of 2015. Significance China's economy is still slowing, and President Xi Jinping is further tightening his hold over an increasingly illiberal political system, but few grave consequences are visible yet. In Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's leadership remains unchallenged. Tokyo's relations with Beijing and Seoul have warmed slightly, but tensions in the South China Sea have risen.

Canada-China trade ties face domestic opposition

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Negotiations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Agricultural Industries ◽  
High Level

Subject Prospects for a Canada-China trade agreement. Significance Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has expressed interest in negotiating a trade agreement with China, and will lead a high-level delegation to China this March to secure opportunities for Canadian business. Increased trade with China could prove a significant boost to sectors of Canada's flagging commodities-driven economy, such as agri-business, finance and aerospace, but the domestic politics of trade in Canada remain controversial. Impacts Canada's oil, lumber and agricultural industries will lobby hard for any potential agreement. Political fallout surrounding the Energy East pipeline may hinder the Trudeau government's ability to meet Chinese preconditions elsewhere. Canadian criticism of China's human rights record and espionage activities may present complications if trade negotiations are undertaken.

Cambodian rapprochement to continue uneasily, for now

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Deputy Prime Minister ◽  
Official Corruption

Subject Cambodia's 'culture of dialogue'. Significance Interior minister and deputy prime minister Sar Kheng, of the ruling Cambodian People's Party (CPP), will meet opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) co-leader Sam Rainsy on October 1 after a similar September 23 meeting. Publicly, such meetings, notionally to discuss forthcoming legislation, characterise the 'culture of dialogue' between the CPP and CNRP. However, the July imprisonment of opposition-linked activists, passage of a controversial civil society law and the August arrest of an opposition senator, raise concerns about the robustness of the rapprochement. Impacts The opposition will focus on sensitive popular issues to gain support, including official corruption and judiciary politicisation. The CPP will use the security forces and judicial apparatus to constrain its opponents. Limitations to civil society freedoms could stoke local unrest over land and human rights.

Cambodia-US frictions are set to worsen

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Development Aid ◽  
Government Officials ◽  
Phnom Penh ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Political Freedoms

Significance The moves are the latest in a series of frictions between Phnom Penh and Washington which centre on political freedoms in Cambodia and, following his arrest on September 3, opposition leader Kem Sokha of the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP). Impacts The US government could use US influence to cut IMF and World Bank development aid to Cambodia. Cambodia will move further into China’s orbit as the US-Cambodia relationship worsens. Cambodian government officials and their business associates could be denied US entry visas. If US sanctions were applied, the garment sector’s liberal labour practices would probably protect this vital industry.

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