Iraqi premier’s post-poll chances depend on Sadrists

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Press Report ◽  
International Engagement

Significance This comes as local press report that powerful Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr might be prepared to lift his election boycott, on certain conditions. Sadrist backing was crucial to the appointment of incumbent Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi. Impacts Kadhimi will try to reinforce his image as a statesman through high-profile international engagement and investment deals. Sadr’s indecision or desire for a longer campaign period could potentially lead to a delay of the polls from October. Developments in Iran-US nuclear deal return talks in Vienna will be important to the security situation in Iraq.

Uganda former PM aspirant will provoke backlash

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Internal Disruption ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Police Forces

Subject Pre-election politics in Uganda. Significance The long-expected announcement on June 15 by sacked Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi that he will run for president will bring bitter tensions between him and President Yoweri Museveni out into the open. It is highly unlikely to threaten the latter's 30-year rule but may provoke internal disruption within the ruling party as Museveni makes an example of internal dissent. Impacts Loyalty among the military and police forces will remain central to Museveni's power. Museveni effectively distances himself from graft scandals, while Mbabazi's reputation remains tarnished by several high-profile cases. Oil firms could see some benefits, if Museveni decides to assure them of his solid hold on power. The government was already likely to unleash inflation-inducing spending during the election, but Mbabazi's campaign increases this risk.

Russian protests challenge Kremlin's election strategy

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Bomb Attack ◽  
Public Concerns

Significance The March 26 protests in more than 100 cities were led by opposition campaigner and would-be presidential contender Alexey Navalny. Centred on corruption allegations against Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, the protests expose elite vulnerabilities ahead of next year's presidential election. They also revealed a new vein of anti-government sentiment among young people and in provincial centres. Impacts The April 3 bomb attack in St Petersburg may be used as an argument to curb freedom of assembly further. Putin will hope that high-profile targeted arrests directed from above will be enough to defuse public concerns about corruption. Younger protesters may escape retribution but 'patriotic' initiatives are unlikely to engage them.

Taro Kono could be Japan’s next prime minister

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Administrative Reform ◽  
Foreign Affairs ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Prime Ministers ◽  
High Profile ◽  
New Directions

Significance He has held high-profile posts since 2015, as minister for foreign affairs and then defence during Shinzo Abe's administration. He now oversees Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s signature ‘digitalisation’ campaign as minister for administrative reform. Last month, Suga made him ‘COVID-19 vaccine czar’, adding to his portfolio. Impacts Under Kono, the LDP would be taken in new directions after Suga’s continuity strategy. Kono is neo-liberal on social and economic policy and less of a cultural conservative than recent prime ministers. Despite his fluent English and contacts in Washington, Kono would tilt foreign policy in an Asia-centric direction.

Tactical needs will shape Israeli ties with Russia

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Good Communication ◽  
The Third ◽  
Security Relations ◽  
Russian President ◽  
International Engagement ◽  
Vladimir Putin

Subject Drivers and constraints in Israeli engagement with Russia Significance Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu visited Moscow on June 7 for the third time in under nine months. His frequent meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin reflect his irritation with US President Barack Obama as well as a desire for more diverse international engagement. He also needs to ensure good communication on military actions in Syria given that Russian and Israeli interests are so disparate. Impacts The appointment of a pro-Russian defence minister in Israel, Avigdor Lieberman, should improve security relations. While supplying arms to Iran, Russia will press Israel not to supply arms to Ukraine. Putin's encouragement for Israel to revive ties with Turkey may indicate he wants a similar thaw with Ankara.

Japan's new defence minister sustains far-right's sway

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
War Crimes ◽  
Comfort Women ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Lower House ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Right ◽  
Yasukuni Shrine

Subject Profile of Minister of Defence Tomomi Inada. Significance Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's appointment this month of Tomomi Inada as defence minister was depicted as provocative by spokespeople in Seoul and Beijing. South Korea's SBS television called her "a right-winger who rejects the comfort women issue and the rulings of the Tokyo [war crimes] tribunal", while Chinese state-run television reported that Inada "has visited Yasukuni Shrine many times" and "denies Japan's history of aggression". Inada has occupied a high-profile role since her election to the lower house in 2005, and even before that championed revisionist causes. Impacts As a new face in a key cabinet position Inada will refresh the LDP's image. In interviews since her appointment Inada has shown restraint, suggesting that policy will not shift markedly to the right. Abe's government has always had close links with the far right; Inada's appointment is not a new direction.

Tunisia’s anti-corruption drive could be divisive

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Transition ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Emergency Powers ◽  
The Government

Subject Anti-corruption campaign. Significance Tunisian Prime Minister Youssef Chahed is pursuing a high-profile campaign against corruption, which has won him public support but also raised questions about his reliance on emergency powers. Anger over corruption has become widespread, and this campaign has improved Chahed’s standing at a time when his coalition government was criticised for ineffectiveness. Impacts Despite fractures within the ruling coalition, the alliance between Nidaa Tounes and Ennahda is in both parties’ interests and will endure. The democratic transition is making progress, but the government has only piecemeal remedies to counter widespread socio-economic protests. Coming municipal elections could restore some of the influence of Islamist party Ennahda.

Israel-Iran escalation is possible before end-2020

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Intelligence Agency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
President Elect

Significance The killing is widely attributed to Israel's intelligence agency, Mossad. Amir-Abdollahian also suggested that Israel could not have been acting alone, pointing the finger at Washington. Impacts Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could pay a price for escalatory action in his relationship with US President-elect Joe Biden. Other Iranian scientists may feel increasingly insecure and ultimately consider moving away from their involvement in the nuclear project. If an Iranian retaliation were high-profile or high-casualty, the Israeli military response would be immediate and disproportionate.

Spain's election could revive a political crisis

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Significant Influence ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
General Election ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Nationalist Parties

Subject Spain's upcoming general election. Significance Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has called a snap election for April 28, following the rejection of his budget by right-wing opposition and Catalan nationalist parties. The election comes as twelve of Catalonia’s pro-independence leaders face high-profile public trials for their involvement in the unconstitutional referendum on Catalan independence in 2017. Impacts Political instability is unlikely to have a significant influence on the economy in the near term. A right-wing government would take a more hostile approach to immigration. It is doubtful that the trials will convert many pro-Spanish Catalans to support independence.

Malaysia will likely have a general election in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Vice President ◽  
General Election ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Step Down ◽  
National Organisation

Significance The United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), surprisingly defeated by the PH in the 2018 general election, returned to government in March 2020 and regained the premiership in August this year through party Vice-President Ismail Sabri Yaakob. The next parliamentary polls are due in 2023. Impacts PH Chairman Anwar Ibrahim will come under growing pressure to step down as leader of the opposition. High-profile corruption proceedings against senior UMNO figures, including former Prime Minister Najib Razak, will be a drag on the party. Eastern Malaysian state governments will have greater influence over the oil and gas sectors.

Security and surveillance top Thai junta's agenda

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Freedom Of Expression ◽  
Digital Content ◽  
National Council ◽  
Law And Order ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Subsidy Scheme

Subject The junta's grip over law and order. Significance Former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's indictment on charges of negligence related to the rice subsidy scheme demonstrates the National Council for Peace and Order's (NCPO) commitment to using the judiciary against political leaders affiliated with deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Such high-profile cases have accompanied a much broader law and order campaign involving the detention of activists and creation of new laws limiting protest and freedom of expression. This campaign reflects worsening authoritarian conditions in Thailand as well as the junta's fear of unrest. Impacts Tightening controls over digital content could deter foreign participation in the telecoms sector. Yingluck's imprisonment is becoming likely: if poorly handled this could trigger major public unrest. The credibility of the judiciary and the anti-graft commission have been deeply tarnished; it will not be easily recouped.

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