Brexit will bring Gibraltar closer to the EU

Significance The bilateral deal avoids a hard border by including Gibraltar in the Schengen free travel system. This also obliges Gibraltar to align more closely with EU rules in areas such as finance, labour and the environment. Impacts The removal of the land border between Spain and Gibraltar could make Spain more exposed to illegal migrants. UK state aid to Gibraltar that is perceived as fueling unfair competition could become an issue of tension between Brussels and London. Amid UK-EU tension, Gibraltar’s e-gaming services (25% of GDP) will look to Asia for future growth opportunities.

Subject The mass exodus from Kosovo to the EU. Significance People started leaving in September last year and numbers have steadily mounted: 23,000 were recorded in the first six weeks of 2015, but the total may be as high as 100,000, from a country of 2 million. Most Kosovars cannot get visas to the EU, so instead enter illegally through a weak point in the Serbian/Hungarian border, before claiming asylum. Their arrival in thousands has provoked a popular backlash in Hungary and a harsh reaction from the governments in Germany and Austria, which are the ultimate destinations for most of the migrants. Impacts Inflows of illegal migrants from Kosovo will fuel anti-immigrant sentiment in Germany, Austria and Hungary. Pristina will come under political pressure to control its borders and ameliorate conditions of life for ordinary people. The EU will be forced to rethink its strategy towards Kosovo.


Significance The EU has exercised significant authority over the digital economy in areas ranging from data privacy and antitrust to illegal state aid and social media disinformation. Under President Ursula von der Leyen, the Commission is maintaining the pace of digital policy and regulation. Impacts The digital package will intensify the debate on where the balance should lie between national and EU regulatory responsibilities. EU willingness to apply core elements of the UK approach to digital competition is a bright spot in the otherwise fraught Brexit talks. Post-Brexit, UK and EU authorities are likely to cooperate on digital taxation at the OECD level. Online disinformation will remain an extremely difficult policy area.


Significance The Commission judged that Irish authorities had forgone this sum as part of a special arrangement with the global technology company, thereby granting it illegal state aid. This case illustrates the confusing state of tax affairs in the EU, particularly regarding mobile international companies. Impacts The Commission is unlikely to go much further than the laudable but limited initiatives on CCCTB, CbCR and BEPS in the foreseeable future. The uncertainty resulting from Ireland's appeal against the Commission's decision could make the country less attractive to investors. Given Ireland's extraordinary bounceback in GDP growth in 2015, there is some latitude for greater tax convergence with the EU15.


Significance Earlier, on August 30, the Commission said the Irish government's tax arrangements with Apple constituted illegal state aid that required a payment of 13 billion euros (14.4 billion dollars) to the Irish authorities. The cases have given rise to suspicions that the EU authorities are unfairly targeting US companies. Impacts Short-term relations with the US government will deteriorate but -- if the Microsoft experience is any guide -- without lasting damage. The Apple ruling may bolster the Commission's reputation, as concerns over corporate power and inequality resonate with the EU public. Once it is outside the EU, the United Kingdom may have few attractions as a hub for US internet operations.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shiba Prasad Mohanty ◽  
Santosh Gopalkrishnan ◽  
Ashish Mahendra

Purpose While traditionally it was believed that shadow banking undercuts business from traditional commercial banks, the time has now arrived to examine the various innovative practices used by various shadow banks and non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) to explore various collaboration and competition possibilities. The parallel existence of the traditional and shadow banking systems creates a market environment where both the entities are inter-dependent for growth and development with their edge of advantages and snags. This study aims to investigate the development and growth of deposits in NBFCs and scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) and, through the adoption of innovative practices, highlights possible growth opportunities for both ahead. Design/methodology/approach This study uses yearly bank deposit data from 1998 to 2019. This study incorporates univariate autoregressive integrated moving average modeling to predict the future deposit growth of SCBs and NBFCs in India. Findings This study concludes that both the entities, i.e. NBFCs and SCBs, will experience deposit growth; however, the proportionate growth of deposits in SCBs will be higher than NBFCs. Research limitations/implications This study concludes that the NBFCs will exhibit higher growth in the future. Thus, a strengthened regulatory framework will boost the growth of the NBFCs, providing a safe environment to the investor. Further, as this study primarily considers only deposit-taking NBFCs and commercial banks and a single variable – “deposit” to predict its future growth, it offers a scope for future research to consider and include other kinds of NBFCs like non-deposit taking NBFCs, housing finance companies, micro-finance Institutions and infrastructure finance companies. Originality/value A competently regulated financial system of an emerging economy confers tremendous growth opportunities to the financial institutions functioning in the system. Deposits are a significant parameter for the performance of the financial institution; thus, by keeping it as the underlying premise, this study forecasts the future growth in deposits for both the commercial banks and NBFCs. This forecasted growth in deposits for both entities, if analyzed and acted upon appropriately, can, apart from other opportunities for investment, be used to point at directional growth of the economy and the gross domestic product, considering that credit growth is a barometer for economic growth. The scope of this study is limited to NBFCs and SCBs of India and considers only a single variable, i.e. deposit for data analysis and growth forecasting.


Significance According to the Commission, “the aim of the ongoing revisions is to promote public funding, which contributes to the achievement of current EU priorities, notably the Green Deal and the European Industrial and Digital Strategies”. At the same time, the Commission is introducing tougher regulation to crack down on state aid from non-EU countries. Impacts More green and digital state aid may not be enough to offset the costs associated with reducing carbon emissions. The EU will be reluctant to tackle large member states which protect firms that are not climate friendly but are strategically important. The UK post-Brexit state aid policy, due to enter into force in 2022, could be the source of further tension in UK-EU relations.


Significance The main impacts of Brexit will be new tariff and non-tariff barriers, a new immigration regime that will favour medium- and high-skilled people from outside the EU, the ability to strike new trade deals, and greater regulatory flexibility. Impacts The United Kingdom’s domestic tourism industry could benefit as travelling to the EU will become more expensive. By “taking back control” of state aid, the UK government will come under greater and more sustained pressure to subsidise companies. Sectors adversely affected by the new immigration plans will have to invest strongly in new recruitment methods.


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