EU-China investment deal is running out of time

Significance According to Beijing, Merkel and Macron showed their willingness to ratify quickly the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI). However, opposition to the CAI is growing in Europe, with parliamentarians particularly concerned about Chinese sanctions and China’s record on human rights and labour standards. Impacts The recent European Council rejection of Macron and Merkel’s proposal on Russia suggests the two leaders’ influence in the EU is waning. The likely emergence of a right-wing government in Italy in 2022 or 2023 would see Rome hardening its position on China. Deterioration in EU-China economic ties would disproportionately hurt economies in southern Europe and Central and Eastern Europe.

Significance From the strategy, it appears the EU no longer sees free trade deals as an end in themselves but as another instrument -- alongside tools such as Carbon Border Adjustment Measures (CBAM) and the International Procurement Instrument -- to protect the internal economy and enhance the EU’s global influence on climate change, human rights and labour standards. Impacts The EU’s increasingly protectionist trade agenda risks creating political tensions with trade partners. Closer EU-US cooperation on trade, among other areas, would weaken the prospects for stronger EU relations with China. As old industries die, the population ages and the EU moves towards digitisation, Europe could become more dependent on foreign innovation.


Significance Given his background and high media profile, the former premier and European Council president could emerge as the leading figure in Poland’s divided opposition. Opponents of the government hope he will help Civic Platform (PO) regain power from the ruling right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party. Impacts Tusk’s return is likely to exacerbate further already-strained tensions between Warsaw and the EU political establishment. PiS will intensify its claims that Tusk is too accommodating towards Berlin, which could also further complicate Polish-German relations. Tusk could find himself in conflict with attempts to shift PO’s stance further to the left on moral-cultural issues such as abortion.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 263-282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donny Tang

Purpose The purpose of this study is to modify the gravity model to identify the main determinants of the European Union (EU) bank lending to the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries during 1994-2012. Design/methodology/approach This study uses both two-stage least squares and dynamic generalized method of moments to estimate the modified gravity model. Findings This study finds that the CEE countries with more developed stock markets have received the higher EU bank lending inflows. The EU banks have greater access to additional financing in the stock markets. Second, the higher stock market difference between the CEE and EU countries has boosted the EU bank lending. Compared to the developed EU stock markets, the less developed CEE stock markets have become more favorable to the EU banks seeking to earn higher profits. Research limitations/implications The CEE countries can further boost the EU bank lending inflows through deepening capital liberalization. They should facilitate easy foreign bank entry by reducing excessive bank legislations and regulations. Moreover, they can promote the EU bank lending through substantial EU bank integration. This can accelerate the major bank reform which would facilitate better bank supervision and regulations. Originality/value Most previous studies have primarily used the macroeconomic and institutional factors to explain the EU bank lending. In contrast, this study explores the growing importance of the CEE financial development and bilateral trade in explaining the EU bank lending.


Author(s):  
Gert Pickel ◽  
Cemal Öztürk

Abstract The so-called refugee crisis and the fear of Islamist terror have turned out to be serendipitous for right-wing populist parties. They portray themselves as defenders of the ‘Christian Occident’ and campaign against an ‘invasion of Muslims’ that was allegedly orchestrated by cosmopolitan elites of the EU. Against this backdrop, this chapter explores the linkage between anti-Muslim sentiments and Eurosceptic attitudes. The study shows that (1) there is a pan-European nexus between Islamophobia and Euroscepticism, (2) there is a nexus that is primarily driven by voters of right-wing populist parties and (3) the magnitude of Islamophobic attitudes differ, however, between societies. An anti-Muslim social climate is particularly widespread in Eastern Europe, where hardly any Muslims live. The contribution addresses the resulting implications for the legitimacy of the EU.


Significance It has yet to win over sceptical member states in southern and Central and Eastern Europe. However, there has been some progress on immigration with countries approving the revised Blue Card Directive which should open more pathways for legal migration. Impacts A fresh spike in illegal migration could have a defining impact on elections in Germany and France. The Eastern Mediterranean will be the most vulnerable route for illegal migration over the coming years. To reduce demand for foreign workers, some EU countries could try to incentivise residents to have more children.


2020 ◽  
Vol 43 (338) ◽  
pp. 61-66
Author(s):  
Sandris Ancans

AbstractThe economy of Latvia lags behind economically developed nations approximately fourfold in terms of labour productivity in the tradable sector, which is the key constituent of a modern economy, thereby affecting future sustainable development in the entire country, including the rural areas. The economic backwardness is characteristic of the entire Central and Eastern Europe. This is the heritage of a communist regime that lasted for about half a century and the economic system termed a (centrally) planned economy or a command economy. However, such a term for the communist-period economy is not correct, as it does not represent the purpose it was created for. Accordingly, the paper aims to assess the effect of the communism period on the economic backwardness of the Central and Eastern European region of the EU. A planned economy that existed in all communist countries, with the exception of Yugoslavia, was not introduced to contribute to prosperity. It was intended for confrontation or even warfare by the communist countries under the guidance of the USSR against other countries where no communism regime existed, mostly Western world nations with their market economies. For this reason, it is not correct to term it a (centrally) planned economy or a command economy; the right term is a mobilised (war) economy. An extrapolation of a geometric progression for GDP revealed that during the half a century, Latvia as part of the USSR was forced to spend on confrontation with the West not less than EUR 17 bln. (2011 prices) or approximately one gross domestic product of 2011. The research aim of the paper is to assess the effect of the communism period on the economic backwardness of the Central and Eastern European region of the EU.


Significance This increases the likelihood of conflicts between Budapest and Brussels, as Fidesz is expected to ally itself with radical parties internationally. The Hungarian government’s Euroscepticism will probably increase, but given the public’s pro-EU orientation, it will advocate reform of the EU rather than exiting the bloc . Impacts Leaving the EPP will narrow the Hungarian government’s room for manoeuvre. Orban's use of Hungary's veto is likely to obstruct business in the European Council. The EU will become a political issue in Hungary.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Hoesli

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze papers that have been published in the Journal of European Real Estate Research since its inception in 2008. Design/methodology/approach The author analyzes papers published from 2008 to 2019 in the Journal of European Real Estate Research by authors’ country of affiliation, by country of study and by theme. Findings The Journal of European Real Estate Research publishes papers from scholars from an increasing number of countries, in particular in Central and Eastern Europe. Papers that provide a comparative analysis of countries constitute the largest category of contributions. The three most popular themes remain housing, valuation and investment/portfolio management. However, the dynamics of the three categories differ notably. Originality/value This paper provides for a clearer understanding of key dimensions of real estate research in Europe.


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