The EU’s international trade priorities are shifting

Significance From the strategy, it appears the EU no longer sees free trade deals as an end in themselves but as another instrument -- alongside tools such as Carbon Border Adjustment Measures (CBAM) and the International Procurement Instrument -- to protect the internal economy and enhance the EU’s global influence on climate change, human rights and labour standards. Impacts The EU’s increasingly protectionist trade agenda risks creating political tensions with trade partners. Closer EU-US cooperation on trade, among other areas, would weaken the prospects for stronger EU relations with China. As old industries die, the population ages and the EU moves towards digitisation, Europe could become more dependent on foreign innovation.

Significance In 2020 the European Commission appointed a Chief Trade Enforcement Officer for the first time, signalling that Brussels is intent on enhancing its capacity to enforce standards agreed in trade deals. However, the EU's experience with South Korea suggests that holding trade partners to account over breaching standards will be difficult. Impacts Relations with trade partners could deteriorate if the EU is seen to be aggressive in enforcing its standards. Concern over China’s willingness to improve labour and environmental standards could impede ratification the EU-China investment agreement. The EU may be reluctant to sanction some partners, such as the United States, that breach labour or environmental standards.


Significance This follows a meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Philippine counterpart, Rodrigo Duterte, on November 13 during Trump's visit to Manila for the 40th US-ASEAN Summit. Impacts Manila will warm ties with Washington once more, but also with Beijing and Moscow. The Philippine government will also seek free trade deals (multilateral and bilateral) with other regional powers. US government pressure on Philippine human rights protections will likely be restrained in favour of trade.


Significance Even if it succeeds, this will have a greater disruptive impact on the trade in services than goods, because the EU’s single market enables greater cross-border services trade than is typical of other free trade agreements (FTAs). This is likely to cut the volume of EU-UK services trade, in which the United Kingdom currently enjoys a substantial surplus. Impacts The United Kingdom’s departure from the EU will diminish its appeal for multinationals over the next few years, at least. The new UK immigration system could result in staff shortages in low-skilled services sectors. The imperative of tackling COVID-19 will likely delay the conclusion of new trade deals with non-EU countries.


Subject Politics and trade talks. Significance Understanding the factors that determine how long trade negotiations take will help businesses navigate the uncertainty, as the UK government prepares to negotiate trade agreements once it leaves the EU. The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between Canada and the EU took seven years to finalise. Less comprehensive renegotiations of international agreements can be shorter, including the US-Mexico-Canada agreement, which took less than two years. Impacts UK sectors highly exposed to the EU or United States, including automotive and financial services, face prolonged investment uncertainty. Timing of national elections, lobbying and the ideological divergence between trade partners will determine post-Brexit trade deal talks. Continued polarisation of major economies' electorates will delay or stop other global deals, including on foreign aid and climate change.


Significance The two sides have long been dialogue partners. They are widely expected to step up negotiations over an inter-regional free trade agreement (FTA). Impacts ASEAN and the EU will collaborate more over COVID-19 recovery efforts, including development and supply of vaccines. The two sides will expedite talks on an air transport agreement to boost connectivity. Non-traditional security issues such as climate change will be key areas of focus in bilateral consultations.


2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (79) ◽  
pp. 78-93
Author(s):  
Gry Inger Reiter

Populist movements experience success, while established parties and institutions such as human rights, free trade deals, the EU and NATO are framed as enemies of the people. But what exactly is populism and what constitutes populist rhetoric? Through an extensive reading of Donald Trump’s electoral campaign this article advances an understanding of populism as a rhetorical phenomenon and develops a theoretical model for analyzing populist rhetoric


Significance According to Beijing, Merkel and Macron showed their willingness to ratify quickly the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI). However, opposition to the CAI is growing in Europe, with parliamentarians particularly concerned about Chinese sanctions and China’s record on human rights and labour standards. Impacts The recent European Council rejection of Macron and Merkel’s proposal on Russia suggests the two leaders’ influence in the EU is waning. The likely emergence of a right-wing government in Italy in 2022 or 2023 would see Rome hardening its position on China. Deterioration in EU-China economic ties would disproportionately hurt economies in southern Europe and Central and Eastern Europe.


Subject EU protectionism. Significance The EU is seeking to promote externally its norms on green energy and digital commerce, as well as taking a firmer approach on foreign investment. However, the approach will likely be interpreted as protectionist by the bloc’s trading partners and could prompt retaliation across different policy areas. Impacts UK absence from EU policy will mean the loss of a liberal voice both on trade policy and single market regulation. The EU will find it difficult to reform or even sustain WTO rules in the event of a second Trump administration. Increased tensions with trade partners could weaken the EU’s global influence in areas such as climate policy and technology regulation. Getting parliamentary approval for agreements with countries deemed to be pursuing climate-damaging polices will become much more difficult.


Author(s):  
Clair Gammage

This article examines the nature of the EU’s obligations in relation to human rights and social norms in its free trade agreements (FTAs) with a view to problematising the extent to which such clauses are justiciable and enforceable. While human rights do not fall within the area of exclusive EU competence, it is widely accepted that the EU may be liable for contributing to human rights violations in the context of trade agreements under international law and EU law. Conversely, it will be shown that social norms, including labour standards and principles such as sustainable development and environmental protection, which are increasingly set out in the Trade and Sustainable Development (TSD) chapters of FTAs, raise more complex questions regarding the territorial reach of EU law. It is submitted that EU FTAs are constructed in such a way as to exclude rights with the effect that the extraterritorial obligations of the EU in relation to human rights clauses and social norms are unlikely to be judicially enforceable in practice. However, in spite of the territorial limitations of EU law in relation to human rights clause and social norms, recent developments in the case law of the Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU) suggest that the EU is nevertheless under an obligation to ensure its trade agreements with developing countries are conducted in a ‘development-friendly’ manner. To conclude, this article advances the argument that the obligation to engage in ‘development-friendly’ trade may serve to extend the territorial reach of EU further, albeit within the confines of trade and cooperation agreements.


Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (14) ◽  
pp. 4363
Author(s):  
Christopher M. Dent

Efforts to tackle climate change are taking place on multiple fronts. This includes trade, an increasingly important defining feature of the global economy. In recent years, free trade agreements (FTAs) have become the primary mechanism of trade policy and diplomacy. This study examines the development of climate action measures in FTAs and discusses what difference they can make to tackling climate change. Its primary source research is based on an in-depth examination of FTAs in force up to 2020. This paper is structured around a number of research questions forming around three main inter-related areas of enquiry. Firstly, to what extent are these provisions in FTAs essentially derivative of energy’s connections with climate change, and thus part of a wider trade–climate–energy nexus? Secondly, what kinds of climate action are FTAs specifically promoting, and how effective a potential positive impact may we expect these to have? Thirdly, are certain climate action norms being promoted by trade partners in FTAs and if so, then who are the norm leaders, what is motivating them, and to what extent are they extending their influence over other trade partners? In addressing these questions, this study offers new insights and analysis regarding a potentially important emerging trend in the trade–climate–energy nexus. Its international political economy approach and latest empirical research also provide a further distinctive contribution to knowledge in this inter-disciplinary area, developing new comprehensions of the relationship between trade, climate action and energy.


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