Kenya's election will pit ‘princes’ against ‘hustlers’

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Africa ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Powers ◽  
Party Leaders ◽  
Economic Slowdown ◽  
Big Men

Significance In June, President Uhuru Kenyatta reportedly told opposition National Super Alliance (NASA) leaders that he would back one of them as his successor. Although there is controversy over exactly what Kenyatta said, it has been interpreted as a snub to ruling Jubilee Party leaders -- in particular, Deputy President William Ruto, whom Kenyatta had previously promised to back in 2022. Impacts The Ruto campaign’s efforts to curb dependence on regional ‘big men’ may reduce defection risks but also weaken its mobilisation capacities. Divisive language will increase the prospect of political instability and violence when the campaigns begin in earnest. Political uncertainty will likely undermine investment and result in an economic slowdown around the election. The efforts of candidates to curry favour with regional powers may strain Kenyan relations within East Africa.

Kenya opposition election boycott increasingly likely

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Electoral Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence

Significance A boycott would hand power to President Uhuru Kenyatta. However, it could also undermine his government's legitimacy, placing him under pressure to delay the election and reform the electoral process or -- if this is not possible -- to share a degree of power after the poll. If a compromise cannot be found, the prospects for political instability will increase significantly, especially around polling day. Impacts October's election will be just as controversial and contested as August's. Extended political uncertainty will hurt investor confidence and limit economic growth. The opposition may fragment as leaders jockey to replace Odinga, who may not run again in 2022.

Transnistria political crisis could grow in 2016

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Crisis Management ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Banking Crisis ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Management Ability ◽  
Economic Slowdown

Subject Transnistrian politics. Significance On November 29, Transnistria, Moldova's breakaway region, held a parliamentary election that resulted in an increased majority for the Renewal (Obnovleniye) Party, creating further problems for President Yevgeny Shevchuk. Transnistria is suffering from Russia's economic slowdown and the government's popularity has dropped following cuts of 30% to pensions and state salaries. Impacts Political instability in Moldova stemming from the banking crisis could complicate ties with Transnistria. As political gridlock makes it increasingly impossible to pass a working budget and collect revenue, Russia will have to provide aid. Transnistria could further strain President Vladimir Putin's crisis management ability.

Malaysia’s Muhyiddin will be secure for now

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
State Level ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Organisation

Significance The leader of the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) earlier this month withdrew his party’s support for Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, ostensibly depriving him of a governing majority. However, a no-confidence vote will not be on the agenda when MPs reconvene next week. Impacts Enduring political uncertainty will hamper the effectiveness of efforts to contain the COVID-19 outbreak. Wrangling within all of Malaysia’s major political parties will intensify in the lead-up to parliament’s first full sitting post-emergency. The influence of Malaysia’s monarchs will continue to grow as further political instability at state level necessitates royal intervention.

COVID-19 may hit less resilient EU eastern areas more

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Significant Development ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Capital Cities ◽  
Left Behind ◽  
The Past ◽  
Standards Of Living ◽  
Slow Progress ◽  
Economic Slowdown ◽  
Clear Cases ◽  
The Impact

Significance At least in the EU’s eleven eastern member states (EU-11), there has been significant if slow progress in lifting standards of living across the board in the past decade. However, progress is uneven and the impact of the economic slowdown due to lockdowns in the past year may well have affected disproportionately already poorer regions. Impacts Some governments, notably Hungary’s, will put political loyalty above need in directing recovery funds to the localities. People in ‘left-behind’ regions may seek a better life in relatively prosperous capital cities or abroad. There is scope for countries and regions to learn from each other given clear cases of significant development in the past decade.

Islamists may reap some benefits from Sudan’s coup

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Power Structures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Powers ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
National Congress ◽  
Secular State

Significance The Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) coalition of civilian and rebel groups have rejected the deal, but Hamdok has justified it on the grounds that (among other things) it will prevent the return of the former ruling National Congress Party (NCP), apparently responding to ongoing speculation over whether NCP-era Islamists influenced Burhan’s October 25 coup. Impacts Burhan will probably limit the work of the Empowerment Removal Committee, which aims to dismantle NCP-era power structures. Any empowerment of Islamists will likely be selective, to avoid alienating regional powers or FFC figures who might be open to cooperation. A marked turn towards Islamism would undermine the chances of a peace deal with holdout rebel groups who seek a secular state.

Morocco looks set to get closer to Gulf states

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
East Africa ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Western Sahara ◽  
Gulf States

Significance The kingdom was previously seen as withdrawn from and largely peripheral to the wider Middle East. However, two issues -- the Israel-Morocco normalisation agreement in late 2020 and the consequent revival of the Western Sahara issue, with US recognition of Morocco’s claims over the territory -- have brought Rabat further into the spotlight. Impacts Morocco will expand its diplomatic and economic partnerships to East Africa. Rabat may try again to position itself as a constructive international actor through offering mediation services. EU states will need to balance their commitment to the UN process in Western Sahara with maintaining strong tries to Rabat.

Prospects for East Africa in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Africa ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past

Subject Prospects for East Africa in 2022. Significance The past year produced considerable political turbulence across East Africa. The coming year threatens to be even more volatile. Indeed, the region faces a period of almost unprecedented uncertainty. It looks almost certain that 2022 will bring major changes -- and potentially major disruptions -- in some of the region’s largest countries.

Cabinet controversy may hurt Nepal’s premier

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Instability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chief Justice ◽  
Step Down

Significance He distributed posts across his multi-party coalition. His appointment of party colleague Gajendra Hamal as industry minister aroused widespread controversy, with critics suggesting it was made on the recommendation of Hamal’s brother-in-law, Chief Justice Cholendra Shumsher JB Rana. Hamal resigned on October 10. Impacts Popular calls for Rana to step down will increase. Regardless of whether Rana remains in post, concern will grow over the judiciary’s influence on Nepali politics. Political instability will endure amid government infighting and clamour among opposition politicians for snap polls.

Israel faces more months of uncertainty

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type

Headline ISRAEL: Political uncertainty will likely last months

Safari tourism and its role in sustainable poverty eradication in East Africa: the case of Kenya

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shem Wambugu Maingi
Keyword(s):  
East Africa ◽  
Natural Capital ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Poverty Eradication ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Persistent Problem ◽  
Tourism Product ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Indigenous Knowledge Systems ◽  
African Context

Purpose Globally, poverty has been a persistent problem despite decades of unprecedented growth. The purpose of this paper is to deliberate on a sustainable livelihoods and poverty eradication approach in an African context. Design/methodology/approach The paper aims to bridge the gaps in poverty eradication strategies in East Africa by examining recent literature on livelihoods approaches and poverty eradication approaches. Findings Safari tourism is one way of connecting poor communities in Kenya to the tourism industry. The development of community conservancies in Kenya presents yet more opportunities for communities to be integrated with the sector. The Africanization of the tourism sector in Kenya is a priority, as communities embrace tourism and poverty eradication measures. Practical implications There is a need for the Safari tourism sector to integrate the local community’s indigenous knowledge systems, community social capital and the community’s natural capital with tourism product development and diversification. Originality/value The paper draws on applied research and technical analysis of the unique opportunities for enhancing sustainable poverty eradication through the tourism sector in East Africa and, more particularly, a Kenyan context.

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