Abu Dhabi will pivot to ‘soft power’ security policies

Significance UAE military engagement abroad since the 1990s has earned it the nickname ‘Little Sparta’. Its activities included a lengthy mission alongside NATO forces in Afghanistan and special forces-led interventions in Libya and Yemen. Impacts Increased COVID-19 vaccine diplomacy could be an important component of the Emirati soft power approach. UAE purchases of expensive weapons and maintenance of Red Sea basing options will focus on the Iran threat. Defence industrial ties will strengthen with the United States and Israel.

Subject US military engagement in Somalia. Significance The United States in December announced it was suspending security assistance to elements of the Somali army, based on reports of corruption and diversion of aid. The decision came amid intensifying US military engagement in Somalia, where airstrikes against al-Qaida-linked Harakat al-Shabaab have increased dramatically since July. Special forces ground operations also appear to be on the rise. Last May, the United States suffered its first combat death in Somalia since the infamous 1993 ‘Battle of Mogadishu’, where 18 US soldiers lost their lives. Impacts The potential for more US fatalities presents a policy risk for the Trump administration given domestic memories of the Battle of Mogadishu. Collateral casualties from US actions may provide al-Shabaab with useful domestic propaganda. Deepening cooperation with Somali intelligence services may have value but will prove complicated in practice.


Significance The UAE military is deeply concerned about both direct and indirect threats from Iran and from Sunni political Islam. It has therefore focused on building alliances with global and regional partner militaries, seen as more useful than developing unilateral capabilities. Impacts The UAE military will not engage in the current Qatar crisis which is political and economic. Abu Dhabi will prioritise alliances with the United States, Europe and Israel to deter Iran. Lobbying for the transfer of the US airbase from Qatar to the UAE is unlikely to succeed. The UAE will build its defence industry to function as an arsenal for regional allies.


Significance The region’s states try to avoid being drawn in, individually and under the aegis of ASEAN. If tensions between Washington and Beijing were to get out of hand, they could come under greater pressure to take sides. Impacts Washington is unlikely to press the region’s states to allow it to establish military bases in their territories. If Donald Trump is re-elected US president next month, he will continue to take a hard line on Huawei and other Chinese tech companies. China and the United States will struggle to increase their soft power in South-east Asia.


Significance The deal -- designed to allow Delek to focus on the larger Leviathan field -- highlights the growing commercial interest in East Mediterranean hydrocarbons. It also underlines the intersection with political developments, including Emirati normalisation with Israel and the regional anti-Turkish alliance. Impacts Abu Dhabi will increase political engagement and again try to gain observer status at the EMGF. On top of hydrocarbons links, electricity cooperation is likely to rise up the regional agenda. The United States, EU and NATO could increase their focus on calming regional tensions through inter-state dialogue.


Significance The trip to Washington by Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari last month has raised questions about whether the United States plans to step up its military support to assist with counterinsurgency against Boko Haram. However, speculation on whether the United States may soften its stance on military support to Nigeria belies the broader structural obstacles that limit US military engagement to Africa. Impacts The United States prefers for other actors to lead on African security crises, such as France in Mali or the African Union in Somalia. African security affairs are highly unlikely to feature in US presidential candidates' speeches, nor national security manifestos. US military activities also remain constrained by African governments' unwillingness to host foreign operations.


Significance The pope’s trip highlights the efforts of several Gulf countries to brand themselves as religiously tolerant. Both the UAE and Saudi Arabia are also hoping that the promotion of tolerance will be good for their relations with the United States and Europe, changing perceptions that they have fostered radicalism. Impacts Saudi Arabia will make its moves more slowly and cautiously than other Gulf states. Saudi religious conservatives may object to visits by priests, although their objections are unlikely to be loudly voiced. Abu Dhabi and Riyadh will highlight progress on religious freedom to distract from the Yemen war and (for the latter) the Khashoggi affair.


Significance On January 18, a Gallup study found that global approval of US leadership had fallen to 30%, a record low, down from 48% in 2016 and 1 percentage point behind China; Germany has replaced the United States as the preferred global leader since Trump's inauguration. Many factors affect a country's 'soft power', including its role in international affairs; approach to trade; willingness to consider global threats; immigration policies; aid stance; and moral positions on issues such as human rights. All these foreign policy areas have undergone considerable change under Trump's 'America First' doctrine. Impacts Trump’s foreign policy will take a more Reaganite position on human rights, applying less pressure on US partners and allies. Money saved from aid cuts would not automatically boost US infrastructure development. Congress will try to mitigate the extent of the administration’s proposed aid cuts.


Author(s):  
David Shambaugh

After the end of the Cold War, it seemed as if Southeast Asia would remain a geopolitically stable region within the American imperious for the foreseeable future. In the last two decades, however, the re-emergence of China as a major great power has called into question the geopolitical future of the region and raised the specter of renewed great power competition. As this book shows, the United States and China are engaged in a broad-gauged and global competition for power. While this competition ranges across the entire world, it is centered in Asia, and here this text focuses on the ten countries that comprise Southeast Asia. The United States and China constantly vie for position and influence in this enormously significant region, and the outcome of this contest will do much to determine whether Asia leaves the American orbit after seven decades and falls into a new Chinese sphere of influence. Just as important, to the extent that there is a global “power transition” occurring from the United States to China, the fate of Southeast Asia will be a good indicator. Presently, both powers bring important assets to bear. The United States continues to possess a depth and breadth of security ties, soft power, and direct investment across the region that empirically outweigh China’s. For its part, China has more diplomatic influence, much greater trade, and geographic proximity. In assessing the likelihood of a regional power transition, the book looks at how ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) and the countries within it maneuver between the United States and China and the degree to which they align with one or the other power.


2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 121-126
Author(s):  
Takisha Durm

PurposeThe Girl Who Buried Her Dreams in a Can, written by Dr Tererai, profiles a cultural, yet global experience of the power of believing in one's dream. Through this study of the similarities and differences of how children in the United States and abroad live and dream of a better life, this lesson seeks to enhance students' understandings of the power and authority they possess to effect change not only within their own lives but also in the lives of countless others in world. After reading the text, students will work to create vision boards illustrating their plans to effect change within their homes, schools, communities, states or countries. They will present their plans to their peers. To culminate the lesson, the students will bury their dreams in can and collectively decide on a future date to revisit the can to determine how far they have progressed in accomplishing their goals.Design/methodology/approachThis is an elementary grades 3–6 lesson plan. There was no research design/methodology/approach included.FindingsAs this is a lesson plan and no actual research was represented, there are no findings.Originality/valueThis is an original lesson plan completed by the first author Takisha Durm.


2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 473-476
Author(s):  
TAKASHI INOGUCHI

This special issue focuses on the role of civil society in international relations. It highlights the dynamics and impacts of public opinion on international relations (Zaller, 1992). Until recently, it was usual to consider public opinion in terms of its influence on policy makers and in terms of moulding public opinion in the broad frame of the policy makers in one's country. Given that public opinion in the United States was assessed and judged so frequently and diffused so globally, it was natural to frame questions guided by those concepts which pertained to the global and domestic context of the United States.


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