US military alone cannot end Somalia militant threat

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Special Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Intelligence Services ◽  
Security Assistance ◽  
Military Engagement ◽  
Policy Risk ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject US military engagement in Somalia. Significance The United States in December announced it was suspending security assistance to elements of the Somali army, based on reports of corruption and diversion of aid. The decision came amid intensifying US military engagement in Somalia, where airstrikes against al-Qaida-linked Harakat al-Shabaab have increased dramatically since July. Special forces ground operations also appear to be on the rise. Last May, the United States suffered its first combat death in Somalia since the infamous 1993 ‘Battle of Mogadishu’, where 18 US soldiers lost their lives. Impacts The potential for more US fatalities presents a policy risk for the Trump administration given domestic memories of the Battle of Mogadishu. Collateral casualties from US actions may provide al-Shabaab with useful domestic propaganda. Deepening cooperation with Somali intelligence services may have value but will prove complicated in practice.

Abu Dhabi will pivot to ‘soft power’ security policies

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Red Sea ◽  
Soft Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Security Policies ◽  
Abu Dhabi ◽  
Special Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Engagement

Significance UAE military engagement abroad since the 1990s has earned it the nickname ‘Little Sparta’. Its activities included a lengthy mission alongside NATO forces in Afghanistan and special forces-led interventions in Libya and Yemen. Impacts Increased COVID-19 vaccine diplomacy could be an important component of the Emirati soft power approach. UAE purchases of expensive weapons and maintenance of Red Sea basing options will focus on the Iran threat. Defence industrial ties will strengthen with the United States and Israel.

US military aid to Africa will not grow significantly

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Foreign Operations ◽  
Military Support ◽  
Military Engagement ◽  
Security Affairs

Significance The trip to Washington by Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari last month has raised questions about whether the United States plans to step up its military support to assist with counterinsurgency against Boko Haram. However, speculation on whether the United States may soften its stance on military support to Nigeria belies the broader structural obstacles that limit US military engagement to Africa. Impacts The United States prefers for other actors to lead on African security crises, such as France in Mali or the African Union in Somalia. African security affairs are highly unlikely to feature in US presidential candidates' speeches, nor national security manifestos. US military activities also remain constrained by African governments' unwillingness to host foreign operations.

Misusing historical analogies limits US policy options

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Middle East ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Options ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Decision To Leave ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Future

Significance The Vietnam analogy implies that President Joe Biden’s decision to leave Afghanistan will have deeply negative consequences for the United States. However, Afghanistan is not Vietnam and the Biden withdrawal needs to be considered within the wider context of his administration’s review of US commitments abroad. Impacts The White House will be pressured to clarify the future of other US military commitments, particularly in Iraq. Biden will seek to reassure allies, particularly those in NATO, that his commitment to multilateralism will not diminish. Biden may seek an opportunity for a military show of force, possibly in the Middle East, to refute accusations of weakness.

Trump may destabilise Korean Peninsula

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
North And South ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject US relations with North and South Korea under the incoming Trump administration. Significance The period of transition to Donald Trump's presidency in the United States has displayed neglect and misunderstanding of Korean peninsula affairs, adding to risks for the region as it approaches a period of significant strategic challenge. Impacts Until Trump's team enunciates policy on the Koreas, responses to events will be unprepared and reactive. Trump's policy will influence presidential elections in South Korea, where left-of-centre candidates question the value of the US alliance. The Trump administration’s policy and communication via Twitter heightens risk of misunderstanding within the region.

US firms will feel pressure in China, trade war or not

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Integrated Circuits ◽  
The United States ◽  
Xi Jinping ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Trade War ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject China's options for retaliating against US firms during trade tensions. Significance US President Donald Trump tweeted yesterday that he is working with China's President Xi Jinping to get China's telecoms giant, ZTE, "back in business, fast" -- even though it was penal US sanctions that forced the company to announce last week that it was stopping operations. The Trump administration is divided on whether its objective in threatening imports tariffs on Chinese goods worth 50 billion dollars, effective May 22, is to strike a deal to cut China's trade surplus with the United States or to change China's industrial practices. Impacts Compliance costs will rise even if trade tensions subside. Investors in industries that China sees as strategic (eg, semiconductors and integrated circuits) may face unwritten screening rules. Investors in automobile, aircraft and shipping manufacturing and finance may find new opportunities to enter the market.

Thailand deepens China links as hedge against US ties

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
East Asia ◽  
High Speed ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
High Speed Railway ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Strategic Imperative ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject Outlook for Thai-US-China relations. Significance Chatchai Thipsunaree, Thailand’s permanent secretary in the Ministry of Transport, confirmed on May 17 that construction of the long-awaited Thai-China high-speed railway will begin this year. The project reflects the growing momentum in Thailand’s relations with China, and refiguring of ties with the United States. Impacts Trump administration officials see less strategic imperative in the US-Thailand alliance than previous administrations. China’s growing presence in South-east Asia, particularly on the Mekong, will trigger resistance from affected populations in Thailand. Thai officials will allow Chinese infrastructure projects to proceed despite local protests.

India-Pakistan tensions will hit US military strategy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
The United States ◽  
Military Strategy ◽  
Military Cooperation ◽  
Security Risks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Support Fund

Subject Strategic entanglement of India, Pakistan and the United States. Significance Washington is slashing Coalition Support Fund (CSF) and Foreign Military Financing (FMF) payments to Islamabad, in the belief that Pakistan harbours the very militants that the United States is fighting in Afghanistan. Washington envisions deeper military cooperation overall with Delhi, which accuses Pakistan of sponsoring militants who act against India. Islamabad is being driven closer to Washington’s rival Beijing. Impacts Pakistan will step up efforts to complete an anti-militant fence on the disputed border with Afghanistan. India is likely to resist any calls from the United States to begin joint patrols in the Indian Ocean. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will face security risks from Islamist militants and Baloch separatists.

Growing US Republican Taiwan focus may provoke Beijing

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trump Administration

Significance Separately, five Republican senators, led by Florida's Marco Rubio, wrote to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on February 7, requesting she invite Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen to address a joint Congress session. Impacts The proposed US-Taiwan free trade agreement is presently unlikely to advance. The Trump administration might be more willing than others to defend Taiwan, but relations with China will take priorty. Taiwan is exporting its political divisions to the United States; the main opposition Kuomintang will open a Washington office this year.

US Space Force will start small and then evolve

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Air Force ◽  
Marine Corps ◽  
The United States ◽  
Coast Guard ◽  
Arms Race ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Us

Subject Creation of the US Space Force. Significance President Donald Trump on February 19 signed a directive ordering the Pentagon to draw up legislation establishing a Space Force as the sixth branch of the US military, alongside the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps and Coast Guard. Impacts A separation of air and space budgets could positively affect future military space modernisation and development programmes. Creation of the Space Force could ultimately move the United States closer towards openly putting weapons in space. If China and Russia perceive it this way, it creates the risk of an arms race in space.

Trump administration may disengage from South Sudan

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Close Relationship ◽  
Trump Administration

Significance Though the United States and South Sudan have a long history, the surprise election of Donald Trump could shift Washington’s posture towards Juba. The deepening crisis there has soured a a once-close relationship. Impacts US Africa policy may be determined in large part by Trump’s personnel picks for senior Africa posts. As observers warn of possible genocide, a US government in transition will find itself ill-prepared to respond. The proposed 4,000-strong Regional Protection Force may find less support from the new administration. US humanitarian funding levels should remain high despite potential policy changes.

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