Taliban politics will hinder international acceptance

Significance The Taliban have focused on negotiating a government among themselves and show little sign of heeding international concerns about their policies, even if these obstruct the recognition and economic assistance they seek. Impacts US and European recognition appears a remote prospect, though some countries will engage informally. Western policy will inhibit recognition of the Taliban by neighbouring countries and the Gulf states. Islamic State militants will use violence to undermine the Taliban, who will try to crush them.

Subject Qatari foreign policy. Significance Qatar has adopted a lower profile on the regional and international stage since the accession of Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in June 2013. The emir is seeking to avoid the problems caused by the more activist policy of his father. His room for manoeuvre has been constrained by several threats that require Doha's greater cooperation with Gulf neighbours, notably Islamic State group (ISG), Iran, and renewed controversy over Qatar's hosting of the FIFA 2022 World Cup. Impacts If Qatar's World Cup bid is re-examined, Qatar is likely to use its financial investments abroad to put pressure on individual states. Qatar's improved cooperation with Gulf states will contribute to the creation of a solid regional Sunni bloc against Iran and ISG. Syrian rebels will make more military gains as a result of more cohesive Gulf support.


Significance In September 2014, the United States and coalition partners began an air campaign against Islamic State group (ISG) in Syria following its seizure of large swathes of northern and western Iraq. While these developments have not changed overall US policy in Syria -- to encourage a negotiated political settlement between regime and opposition -- they have seen Washington's focus move away from the civil war and onto counter-terrorism and containing ISG in Iraq. Impacts Islamist rebels backed by Gulf states and Turkey will dominate the insurgency and influence any post-Assad government. Efforts to destroy ISG in Iraq are unlikely to succeed so long as it retains a safe haven in Syria. US air support will help Kurds establish contiguous zone of control in northern Syria, prompting Ankara to respond. Without access to game-changing US weapons, Syrian rebels will not have the firepower needed to defeat the regime. The regime will withdraw steadily from outlying areas and consolidate its control on Damascus, the Homs-Hama corridor and western Syria.


Subject 'Islamic State' blowback risk in Gulf Significance A recent spate of attacks in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states suggest that the threat posed to them by the Islamic State group (ISG) arises primarily from 'lone wolf' operations. However, the GCC states face a deeper challenge both internally from networks of ISG cells, and externally from the flow of Gulf nationals to ISG battlefronts in Iraq and Syria. With the Gulf states leading the region in partnering with the United States in the air campaign against ISG, officials must balance this close security relationship with the threat of backlash from domestic supporters of ISG. Impacts GCC states will seek to avoid being drawn directly into any military escalation against ISG in Iraq and Syria. Instead, they will rely on the US military to take the lead, underlining their reliance on Washington as an external security guarantor. GCC states will become increasingly critical of the US air campaign if it fails to roll back ISG gains. Gulf authorities are using the extremist threat to delegitimise and ban most forms of political and popular dissent. Greater security cooperation with Jordan will solidify the kingdom's incorporation into a GCC sphere of regional influence.


Significance The Paris attacks may mark the metamorphosis of Islamic State group (ISG) into a terrorist network with global reach, capable of mobilising local-born radicals in Western Europe to launch mass casualty attacks in urban centres. Impacts With world leaders arriving, December's COP21 climate conference in Paris will become an international expression of solidarity with France. European security services will argue successfully for greater powers and resources. Paris may face more domestic calls to review its warm relationships with Gulf states, given their role sponsoring radical Islamist groups. Previously possible changes to France's defence and foreign ministers in coming months may now be in doubt. Muslim and refugee sites across Europe will be at risk of reprisal attacks.


Significance Former Crown Prince Hamzah was placed under house arrest on April 3, as 20 other people were detained. His release of audio and video material that undermined the official position embarrassed the government, and the recent public reconciliation leaves his status unclear. Impacts Despite the aspersions cast on Riyadh, Gulf states will send further financial aid to boost stability and compete for influence. Another government reshuffle and further changes within the security services are likely. Relations between Abdullah and Hamzah will remain troubled, as the latter seeks to remain relevant in case an opportunity presents itself.


2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 962-968 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frederic Compin

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse how terrorism financing can be assimilated with money launderning when the amounts ofmoney involved differ so markedly. Not only is the cost of financing terrorist attacks minimal compared to the huge sums often at stake in financial crimes, but also the psychological profile of terrorists, who are reclusive by nature, contrasts starkly with that of financial criminals, who are usually fully integrated members of society. When terrorism financing is equated with money laundering this represents a utilitarian approach in that it facilitates the creation of a security strategy and stifles criticism of criminogenic capitalismthat turns a blind eye to tax evasion. Design/methodology/approach The analysis is conceptual, focussing on the assimilation of terrorism financing with money laundering. There is an interview with a French magistrate, specialized in the fight against corruption and white-collar crime, and data have been collected from international organizations and scholarly articles. Findings The fight against money laundering and money dirtying has clearly sparked numerous controversies around evaluation, scope, criminal perpetrators and a lack of vital cooperation between administrative and judicial services. Social implications This paper raises questions about the reasons behind the linking of money laundering and money dirtying by states and players in public international law and why the fight against money laundering is very much overshadowed by their focus on terrorist financing in dealing with the growing threat of Islamic State, otherwise known as ISIS or ISIL, in the Middle East and West Africa. Originality/value The paper enables the reader to raise the question of similarities between the fight against money laundering and the fight against terrorism financing.


2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Tierney

Purpose The existing literature on Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has thus far focused on the group’s contemporary or previous financing activities. However, there has not been an analysis of the ways in which ISIS’ funding is likely to change moving forward now that it has come under international scrutiny. The purpose of this paper is to assess the ways in which ISIS’ funding is likely to evolve in the future and to also suggest methods for combating its financing activities. Design/methodology/approach The paper is theoretical in nature. By assessing the existing literature on terrorist financing, it is apparent that terrorist organizations alter their funding sources and methods after coming under intense international scrutiny. Therefore, two hypotheses are put forth for the future of ISIS’ funding activities: the group will become more effective at building social support among its local population, thereby consolidating is funding sources and methods within Syria and Iraq; and the group will increasingly branch out, searching for sources from a transnational network, as its base in Syria and Iraq begins to deteriorate. Findings Community support is essential for sustaining a terrorist network. As a result, it is likely that ISIS will increasingly seek funding from a transnational network as its base of support in Iraq and Syria begins to deteriorate. There is also a distinct third possibility that the group will be able to consolidate its base while also moving abroad for financial support. This third option presents the most complicated outcome for the international community in its fight against ISIS. Originality/value This study fills a gap in the literature on terrorist financing, particularly with regards to ISIS, to assist the international community in its fight against the group both now and moving into the future.


Significance The kingdom was previously seen as withdrawn from and largely peripheral to the wider Middle East. However, two issues -- the Israel-Morocco normalisation agreement in late 2020 and the consequent revival of the Western Sahara issue, with US recognition of Morocco’s claims over the territory -- have brought Rabat further into the spotlight. Impacts Morocco will expand its diplomatic and economic partnerships to East Africa. Rabat may try again to position itself as a constructive international actor through offering mediation services. EU states will need to balance their commitment to the UN process in Western Sahara with maintaining strong tries to Rabat.


Keyword(s):  

Headline GULF STATES: Qatari-Emirati interests shift aids peace


Headline IRAQ: Islamic State will trade on ethnic land disputes


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