Qatar will follow GCC line on regional policy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Regional Policy ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
World Cup ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Investments ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
The Creation ◽  
State Group

Subject Qatari foreign policy. Significance Qatar has adopted a lower profile on the regional and international stage since the accession of Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in June 2013. The emir is seeking to avoid the problems caused by the more activist policy of his father. His room for manoeuvre has been constrained by several threats that require Doha's greater cooperation with Gulf neighbours, notably Islamic State group (ISG), Iran, and renewed controversy over Qatar's hosting of the FIFA 2022 World Cup. Impacts If Qatar's World Cup bid is re-examined, Qatar is likely to use its financial investments abroad to put pressure on individual states. Qatar's improved cooperation with Gulf states will contribute to the creation of a solid regional Sunni bloc against Iran and ISG. Syrian rebels will make more military gains as a result of more cohesive Gulf support.

Saudi focus on Iran risks stoking regional instability

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Major Change ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crown Prince ◽  
State Group

Subject Saudi policy in the Middle East. Significance King Salman's accession in January 2015 heralded a major change in foreign policy. The decision-making process was streamlined and placed in the hands of princes from the younger generation of royals, the new Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. These changes have created an unprecedented dynamism in Saudi leadership and led to direct interventions in regional crises. Impacts Antagonism towards Tehran will deter cooperation on oil price or production initiatives. It will also constrain the potential for Gulf Arab states to do business with post-sanctions Iran. Failure to show victory in Yemen will cloud Mohammed bin Salman's succession chances, and could see his removal after King Salman's death. Saudi state's sectarian, anti-Iranian rhetoric risks increasing popular support for Islamic State group (ISG). Instability could increase in Lebanon as Saudi Arabia draws back its support.

United States will pursue modest goals in Syria

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Civil War ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Safe Haven ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
State Group ◽  
Political Settlement

Significance In September 2014, the United States and coalition partners began an air campaign against Islamic State group (ISG) in Syria following its seizure of large swathes of northern and western Iraq. While these developments have not changed overall US policy in Syria -- to encourage a negotiated political settlement between regime and opposition -- they have seen Washington's focus move away from the civil war and onto counter-terrorism and containing ISG in Iraq. Impacts Islamist rebels backed by Gulf states and Turkey will dominate the insurgency and influence any post-Assad government. Efforts to destroy ISG in Iraq are unlikely to succeed so long as it retains a safe haven in Syria. US air support will help Kurds establish contiguous zone of control in northern Syria, prompting Ankara to respond. Without access to game-changing US weapons, Syrian rebels will not have the firepower needed to defeat the regime. The regime will withdraw steadily from outlying areas and consolidate its control on Damascus, the Homs-Hama corridor and western Syria.

Sectarianism raises jihadist blowback threat in Gulf

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lone Wolf ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Us ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Security Relationship ◽  
State Group

Subject 'Islamic State' blowback risk in Gulf Significance A recent spate of attacks in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states suggest that the threat posed to them by the Islamic State group (ISG) arises primarily from 'lone wolf' operations. However, the GCC states face a deeper challenge both internally from networks of ISG cells, and externally from the flow of Gulf nationals to ISG battlefronts in Iraq and Syria. With the Gulf states leading the region in partnering with the United States in the air campaign against ISG, officials must balance this close security relationship with the threat of backlash from domestic supporters of ISG. Impacts GCC states will seek to avoid being drawn directly into any military escalation against ISG in Iraq and Syria. Instead, they will rely on the US military to take the lead, underlining their reliance on Washington as an external security guarantor. GCC states will become increasingly critical of the US air campaign if it fails to roll back ISG gains. Gulf authorities are using the extremist threat to delegitimise and ban most forms of political and popular dissent. Greater security cooperation with Jordan will solidify the kingdom's incorporation into a GCC sphere of regional influence.

Turkish detente will bolster Saudi regional policy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Policy ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Arab Uprisings ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Regional Position ◽  
State Group ◽  
Military Campaign ◽  
The Military

Subject Saudi-Turkish relations. Significance After ties soured in the wake of the 2011 Arab uprisings, the Saudi and Turkish leaderships are managing bilateral relations better in order to combat rising regional challenges. These include a potential agreement on Iran's nuclear programme, the expansion of the Islamic State group (ISG) and the stalemate in the Syrian rebel campaign to unseat President Bashar al-Assad. In particular, relations have improved at the leadership level, with the death of Saudi King Abdallah enabling a symbolic turning of a new page in the kingdom's foreign policy and a toning down in the kingdom's hostility towards the Muslim Brotherhood. Impacts Saudi support for the Sisi regime could revive tensions with Turkey, particularly if Egypt intensifies its anti-Islamist crackdown further. Despite common concerns over ISG, both Turkey and Riyadh will limit their involvement in the military campaign owing to domestic concerns. The kingdom's change in tone towards the Brotherhood could strengthen its regional position by improving ties with key Islamist groups. Improved diplomacy could boost already strong trade ties.

Paris attacks boost Russia's Syria stance

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Mass Casualty ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
European Security ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Services ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
State Group ◽  
Foreign Ministers

Significance The Paris attacks may mark the metamorphosis of Islamic State group (ISG) into a terrorist network with global reach, capable of mobilising local-born radicals in Western Europe to launch mass casualty attacks in urban centres. Impacts With world leaders arriving, December's COP21 climate conference in Paris will become an international expression of solidarity with France. European security services will argue successfully for greater powers and resources. Paris may face more domestic calls to review its warm relationships with Gulf states, given their role sponsoring radical Islamist groups. Previously possible changes to France's defence and foreign ministers in coming months may now be in doubt. Muslim and refugee sites across Europe will be at risk of reprisal attacks.

Rise of Shia militias will reshape Iraqi politics

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Guard ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Power Struggle ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Group

Subject The rise of Iraq's Shia militias. Significance Shia militias, known as Popular Mobilisation Units (PMUs), are the most capable offensive forces at the federal government's disposal in its fight against Islamic State group (ISG). Yet Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's cabinet only exercises limited control over these forces, many of which receive backing from Iran. While Iraq's battle against ISG is progressing steadily, the emergence of these powerful Shia militias could represent a larger medium-term challenge to state stability. Impacts Shia militias will probably be less effective in Sunni-only areas. Iraq boasts insufficient offensive forces to attack Mosul in the first half of 2015. The National Guard initiative will take months to be ratified in parliament. Politics in the oil-rich south will be complicated by a power struggle between Shia politicians and militia leaders.

Libya beheadings strengthen anti-Islamist agenda

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Air Force ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Armed Group ◽  
State Group

Significance The strikes were in response to a video released by the Islamic State group (ISG) yesterday showing the beheading of 21 Egyptian Copts who had been kidnapped from Sirte on two separate occasions on December 31 and January 3. Brigadier Saqer al-Joroushi, who commands the air force for the armed group of former General Khalifa Haftar, said the strikes were carried out in coordination between them and Egypt. He added that further strikes were going to take place. Impacts The beheadings are sharpening divisions within the moderate Islamist Libya Dawn camp. This might trigger a confrontation between its more moderate elements and the more radical ones. The killings will reinforce popular Egyptian support for Sisi and his anti-Islamist agenda.

Oman's next sultan will face greater social challenges

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Medical Treatment ◽  
Political System ◽  
Regional Policy ◽  
Economic Situation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Social Protests ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Arab Gulf

Subject Challenges for Oman's next sultan. Significance After more than seven months in Germany undergoing medical treatment, Sultan Qaboos Bu Sa'id finally returned to Oman on March 23. Qaboos has ruled the country for 45 years and enjoys enormous personal loyalty among Omanis. However, his successor is likely to face a much rockier time in power -- he will lack Qaboos's legitimacy, but will also need to face up to Oman's worsening economic situation, which will present serious challenges even to a capable new sultan. Impacts Social protests are likely to become more frequent under Qaboos's successor if he fails to tackle economic problems. Despite his weaker position, the next sultan will remain the most powerful actor in the Omani political system. Oman will maintain its distinctive regional policy, maintaining close ties with both Iran and Arab Gulf states.

Jihadi groups will compete for support in the Maghreb

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
International Action ◽  
Security Environment ◽  
Militant Groups ◽  
State Group

Significance Instability in Libya has exacerbated an already fraught security environment in the Maghreb and the Sahel. Several militant groups co-exist in these parts, usually in competition with each other. The Islamic State group (ISG) has taken centre stage, but despite high profile attacks in Libya, it has failed to establish a foothold in other Maghreb countries. Impacts ISG encroachment in Libya will strengthen calls for international action to address Libya's crisis. Sporadic attacks are expected against security forces and government targets in Tunisia and Algeria. Government pressure and expanded counterterrorism operations could cause more widespread abuses of human rights. Fighters returning from jihad in Syria and Iraq could bolster the capabilities of local jihadist cells.

Turkey's Kurds will be angry if HDP is not re-elected

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Guerrilla Warfare ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Self Confidence ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group ◽  
Religious Elements

Significance The process looks in danger. Serious local conflicts in south-eastern Turkey are straining tensions between Kurds and the government, even though guerrilla warfare has not resumed. Kurdish self-confidence is rising because of its fighters' success in expelling Islamic State group (ISG) from Kobani. However, dialogue between the government and imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan continues, and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu seems more sensitive to Kurdish aspirations than his predecessors. Impacts Ocalan's leadership of the PKK is unshakable, but his ability to persuade his followers to avoid clashes on the streets is weakening. The conflict between the Kurds and Islamists inside Turkey will grow. Public opinion, including conservative religious elements, will block significant concessions to the Kurds, limiting the government's scope. The Kurds are emerging as a key regional opponent of Islamist politics.

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