Kurz will have much leverage over new Austrian leader

Significance Despite stepping down, Kurz will remain leader of the centre-right Austrian People’s Party (OVP) and the party’s parliamentary group leader. The Greens, which had threatened to bring down the government under Kurz, now appear placated and ready to work with Schallenberg. Impacts Declining support for Kurz and the OVP would likely benefit the far-right Freedom Party. Kurz's resignation will lead to pressure for more regulation on political campaign advertisements. The electoral defeat of Germany’s CDU and Kurz’s resignation will weaken the influence of the centre-right European People’s Party.

Significance Vox has gathered support by staunchly opposing Catalan independence, promoting a nationalist agenda and championing conservative values. The strength of its electoral appeal is already having a significant impact on the centre-right People’s Party (PP). Impacts The PP’s leadership at the national level will be more cautious of being perceived as too close to Vox. Deepening inequality after COVID-19 could undermine Spain’s Socialist government and push more younger people to support Vox. Concerns about Vox and rising support for Spanish nationalists in general may force the government to take a tougher stance on immigration.


Significance His new government, which took a record 271 days to form, is a reiteration of the previous four-party coalition involving Rutte's centre-right People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), the centrist liberals of Democrats 66 (D66) and two Christian democratic parties, the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) and the more conservative Christian Union (CU). The coalition deal promises a significant shift away from the austerity policies of previous governments. Impacts The collective rise of the far-right vote means the far right will continue to worry centrist parties and thus influence government policy. Higher structural spending in education should improve medium-to-long-term productivity development and output. The government promises to strengthen cyber capabilities in order to crack down on intellectual property theft.


Significance The pandemic has strengthened Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s position in the short term. However, the government has done little on the economic front; a conservative stimulus package raises doubts that a lasting downturn can be averted and is driving medium-term risks to ruling Fidesz’s position. Impacts Tensions within the European People’s Party over Fidesz will deepen, but probably not lead to the party’s exclusion. China’s soft power will be boosted as its role in combating the virus is contrasted with Western indecisiveness. Large multinational manufacturing and services firms could penetrate the economy further but may not be able to drive a quick rebound.


Significance The MAS’s national-level appeal tends not to translate into support in localised elections, and a poor choice of candidates, particularly in El Alto, has proved self-defeating. Impacts Second-round gubernatorial elections will probably take place in six out of nine departments. Camacho, a far-right businessman turned politician, will use his newly gained legitimacy to harry the government. The Arce government will seek a modus vivendi with opposition mayors such as those of La Paz and Cochabamba.


2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Javier Olivas Osuna ◽  
José Rama

Spain has been one of the hardest hit countries by the COVID-19 pandemic, and this crisis presented a window of opportunity for VOX, as it has for other far right parties, to raise its visibility as opposition force. This paper investigates whether the discourse of VOX has evolved during the pandemic and affected the political dynamics in Spain. This article proposes a new multidimensional strategy to measure the degree of populism in political communications, via quantitative and qualitative content analysis. It dissects the parliamentary speeches of the leader of VOX, Santiago Abascal, in the debates for the approval and extension of the “state of alarm” to fight against COVID-19 between March and June 2020. In order to assess the changes and relative intensity of populist features in Abascal’s parliamentary speeches we compared them with his speech during Pedro Sánchez’s investiture session as the Spanish President of the Government, in January 2020, and VOX’s latest political manifestos—2019 European and Spanish General Elections—, as well as with speeches of the representatives of the five main parties and coalitions during the COVID-19 debates in the Spanish Congress.Our paper shows that populists’ discourses are context-dependent and that their performances are not only shaped by crisis but also constitutive of crisis. The density of populist references in Abascal’s speeches grew steadily during the period analysed. Morality and antagonism overshadowed sovereignty and society as key populist attributes, and the tone of the discourse became increasingly hyperbolic. Moreover, Abascal’s discursive performances had a sort of contagion effect in other parties in the parliamentary sessions studied. People’s Party (Partido Popular–PP) leader Pablo Casado chose to follow VOX and harshly criticized the government, meanwhile the discourses of the speakers of Together We Can (Unidas Podemos–UP) and Catalan Republican Left (Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–ERC), adopted a demonizing rhetoric against VOX and PP also grounded on a populist logic of articulation. This polarizing dynamic between competing Manichean discourses contributed to reinforce the sense of crisis by adding a political dimension to the already existing health and economic problems.


Significance The new government will have only 34 of the 179 seats, because policy differences among the right-wing parties, and the political strategy of the electorally strengthened anti-immigration, Euro-sceptic Danish People's Party (DF), mean DF will remain outside. Policy-making will be difficult. The government will be more economically liberal and pro-EU than it would have been with DF, but to make policy it will rely on partners across the political spectrum, especially the ousted Social Democrats -- who remain the largest party -- and DF. Impacts If DF is seen as a welfarist protector of ordinary citizens, it is more likely to repeat, at least, its 22% vote in the next election. The much-tighter immigration regime which is in prospect could taint Denmark's image and make it less attractive to foreign investment. The new government is likely to be an ally for much of UK Prime Minister David Cameron's EU reform agenda.


Significance The government consists largely of newcomers and politicians with dubious links to the far right. It embarks upon a five-year reform programme for Austria which is thin on detail but could lead to radical changes. Impacts A tougher stance on migrants and asylum seekers could foster a wider reluctance in some EU states to accept refugees. Major constitutional changes are unlikely as the government would need the support of the SPOe or the small Neos party. Any extreme right-wing tendencies will concern Brussels and Israel, which will keep a close eye on the government. Austria will be an unpredictable ally, sometimes siding with Macron and at other times favouring alliances with Eastern European countries. The SPOe’s loss of office could lead to changes in personnel and programmatic position.


Subject France's reform agenda. Significance On September 7, yellow vest protests resumed in French cities, albeit in small numbers. It is, however, a warning for President Emmanuel Macron that social unrest is still a threat as the government seeks to drive ahead with stage two of its controversial reform agenda. Impacts While France is less exposed to trade disputes than such countries as Germany, recession in the latter would slow France's growth further. Reducing unemployment and avoiding a public sector backlash will be crucial for Macron’s expected re-election bid in 2022. Marine le Pen’s far-right National Rally remains Macron’s only significant political rival, which increases his chances of re-election. Domestic stability will enable Paris to pursue a more assertive foreign policy.


Subject Germany’s unilateral Balkan initiative. Significance The Zagreb trip of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the European People’s Party (EPP) ‘Spitzenkandidat’ for European Commission president, Manfred Weber, lies behind Germany’s attempt to soothe growing Balkan tensions and keep the region out of the European Parliament (EP) elections. Impacts If EU enlargement is abandoned, it will incline the Balkans further towards such foreign actors as Russia, Turkey and China. Bosnia is drifting towards becoming a failed state and breaking up, which could trigger new violence drawing in Serbia and Croatia. The weakening EU role has contributed to a worsening ethnic, security, political, economic and social situation in every Balkan country.


Subject CEE influence in the new Commission. Significance Disunited Central-Eastern Europe (CEE) lacks the power to influence EU agenda-building and needs support from others. This increases the role of French President Emmanuel Macron as his administration, the Renew Europe group, European Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen and the European People's Party (EPP) divide spheres of influence in the Eastern EU. Impacts Maintaining the status quo will require functional collaboration between EU member states and getting CEE on board. Interest in further enlargement will continue to fade and Western Balkan support for the EU will fall without more EU involvement. Pro-EU and social modernisation movements may form in some CEE states in reaction to the dominant parties of recent years.


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