Tensions between tiers of Bolivian government may grow

Significance The MAS’s national-level appeal tends not to translate into support in localised elections, and a poor choice of candidates, particularly in El Alto, has proved self-defeating. Impacts Second-round gubernatorial elections will probably take place in six out of nine departments. Camacho, a far-right businessman turned politician, will use his newly gained legitimacy to harry the government. The Arce government will seek a modus vivendi with opposition mayors such as those of La Paz and Cochabamba.

Subject Dutch right-wing populism. Significance The Netherlands' newest far-right party, Forum for Democracy (FvD), won the provincial elections on March 20, receiving almost 15% of the vote. The party’s support is expected to grow, and it joins the anti-Islamic Party for Freedom (PVV) as the Netherlands' second major far-right party. Impacts Support for far-right parties will increase pressure on the government to implement populist ideas, especially in cultural affairs. Centrist parties in the European Conservative and Reformist group may try to block the FvD’s admission after the European elections. Policymaking at the national level will become increasingly difficult.


Significance Vox has gathered support by staunchly opposing Catalan independence, promoting a nationalist agenda and championing conservative values. The strength of its electoral appeal is already having a significant impact on the centre-right People’s Party (PP). Impacts The PP’s leadership at the national level will be more cautious of being perceived as too close to Vox. Deepening inequality after COVID-19 could undermine Spain’s Socialist government and push more younger people to support Vox. Concerns about Vox and rising support for Spanish nationalists in general may force the government to take a tougher stance on immigration.


Subject Proposed reforms in the oil and gas sector. Significance In the face of strong resource nationalism, President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo's government faces strong pressure to improve the balance between public control and private participation in the oil and gas sector. To that end, the government proposes to amend the 2001 oil and gas law. Its draft amendment proposes, most notably, that state enterprises should control all production operations, while private investors provide technology and capital. The government is also considering revisions to the upstream regime, which is currently based on production-sharing contracts (PSCs). These changes require parliamentary approval. Impacts Private firms, especially foreign ones, are likely to delay fresh investment in energy assets, given the oil and gas market glut. Indonesia's vast natural resource endowment will attract private interest, but regulatory uncertainty will be an abiding problem. Transparency in the extractive sector will continue to rise at the national level, but local level reforms will be slow.


Significance The government consists largely of newcomers and politicians with dubious links to the far right. It embarks upon a five-year reform programme for Austria which is thin on detail but could lead to radical changes. Impacts A tougher stance on migrants and asylum seekers could foster a wider reluctance in some EU states to accept refugees. Major constitutional changes are unlikely as the government would need the support of the SPOe or the small Neos party. Any extreme right-wing tendencies will concern Brussels and Israel, which will keep a close eye on the government. Austria will be an unpredictable ally, sometimes siding with Macron and at other times favouring alliances with Eastern European countries. The SPOe’s loss of office could lead to changes in personnel and programmatic position.


Subject France's reform agenda. Significance On September 7, yellow vest protests resumed in French cities, albeit in small numbers. It is, however, a warning for President Emmanuel Macron that social unrest is still a threat as the government seeks to drive ahead with stage two of its controversial reform agenda. Impacts While France is less exposed to trade disputes than such countries as Germany, recession in the latter would slow France's growth further. Reducing unemployment and avoiding a public sector backlash will be crucial for Macron’s expected re-election bid in 2022. Marine le Pen’s far-right National Rally remains Macron’s only significant political rival, which increases his chances of re-election. Domestic stability will enable Paris to pursue a more assertive foreign policy.


Subject Italian political outlook. Significance On January 26, Italy’s co-ruling Democratic Party (PD) defeated Matteo Salvini’s far-right League party by 51.4% to 43.6% in elections in Emilia Romagna, a prosperous region of northern Italy. In what was a litmus test for the fragile national coalition between PD and the Five Star Movement (M5S), the PD victory has reduced the risk of a government collapse. Impacts Risk-averse investors will remain cautious about Italy over the next year. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte hopes the result will give the government the stability to cut taxes to boost private sector investment. Salvini’s support could decline if he continues to personalise the League’s election campaigns.


2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 306-327 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard J. Culas ◽  
Kimsong Tek

Purpose The paper presents food and nutritional status and relevant policy objectives that can sustain food security in Cambodia. This paper aims to review Cambodia’s food security situation over a period. Design/methodology/approach The paper provides an approach for selecting food security indicators in relation to both inputs and outcomes by drawing on a conceptual framework. National level data for the food security indicators are analysed over a period to provide trends in food and nutritional status. Findings Cambodia has not experienced drastic food insecurity yet, as most people are farmers and their livelihoods dependent on agriculture. Agriculture has maintained food availability in the country; however, there is a proportion of the population living in remote areas unable to obtain sufficient, safe, nutritious food. Landlessness, internal migration, rapid population growth, lack of education and skills, limited access to natural resources and agricultural land, poor health and infrastructure leave the people with inadequate employment opportunities, low capabilities and low productivity which in turn bring deeper poverty. Therefore, people are insecure, excluded and vulnerable to food deprivation. Practical implications To tackle the food security challenges, the Government of Cambodia focuses on food-based social safety nets in the sectors of education, nutrition and productive assets/livelihoods support, to enable longer-term, nationally owned food security solutions. Originality/value The paper draws conclusions using a range of recently proposed food security indicators and offers a perspective for policy formulation which may be of interest to development scholars and practitioners.


Significance On the basis of exit polls and preliminary rapid counts, the MAS has clearly suffered an electoral reverse. However, in line with previous sub-national elections, this reflects the problem the party has in selecting sufficient candidates at that level who command widespread support. For the opposition, the election represented something of a recovery from its poor showing in last October's presidential and legislative elections. Impacts Demographic trends will further underline the political and economic strength of Santa Cruz vis-a-vis La Paz. The downturn in natural gas prices will mean that the government will have less money to redistribute to sub-national tiers of government. Costas has reaffirmed his position as Morales's chief political foe, but his appeal beyond Santa Cruz is limited.


Subject Profile of Kyriakos Mitsotakis. Significance The new leader of New Democracy (ND), 48-year-old Kyriakos Mitsotakis, has already given his party's shadow government another reshuffle, setting up a tougher stance than his predecessor towards the Syriza-Independent Greeks (Anel) coalition government. Mitsotakis sees delays in implementing the third bailout package as destructive for the private sector and criticises Syriza's propensity to hobble any administrative or regulatory authority it does not control and to fill public institutions with political appointees and relatives of cabinet ministers. Impacts ND's political profile, tainted by years of unpopular austerity measures and openings to the far-right, will become more centrist. Mitsotakis's rise to head ND will strengthen the hand of Greece's creditors as he offers a reliable alternative to Syriza-Anel. Other opposition parties may feel pressure to distance themselves from the government lest supporters defect to ND.


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