Mexico’s 2020 budget looks highly optimistic

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Limited Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Budget ◽  
National Economic

Significance The package comprises the national budget and revenue legislation, as well as key domestic and international macroeconomic assumptions and projections. Impacts Even if GDP growth remains poor, fiscal loosening is unlikely. The central bank may lower interest rates further to help boost the economy, but the effect of a monetary push would be relatively minor. Major projects such as the Maya Train may have some regional impact but will have a limited effect on national economic growth. Legislators may increase the expected oil price for 2020 to boost spending in some areas without increasing the fiscal deficit target.

Australian central bank holds rate as growth slips

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Labour Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commercial Lenders ◽  
The Government ◽  
Roll Out ◽  
Growth Forecasts

Significance The RBA has cut its growth forecasts amid rising job losses, weakening demand and increasing signs that the latest COVID-19 lockdowns will continue to slow the economy until the pace of the vaccine roll-out programme can be increased. Impacts Although the RBA is independent, the government will hope it keeps rates low ahead of the elections due next year. Commercial lenders could raise interest rates independently of the RBA if inflation remains high. Wage pressures will re-emerge as labour markets tighten but may be mitigated by the extent of underemployment. Economic growth will be uneven across the country in coming months as pandemic-related restrictions vary by location.

Pandemic will take heavy economic toll in Colombia

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Slow Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Incentives ◽  
Second Year ◽  
The Government

Significance This has triggered a series of economic setbacks. The economy showed modest growth in the first quarter of 2020 before plummeting 15.7% in the second, year-on-year. Various industries and sectors have all but ground to a halt. Unemployment reached 20.3% in the second quarter. Impacts Fiscal incentives implemented by the government to mitigate the pandemic’s economic impacts will widen Colombia’s fiscal deficit. Interest rates will probably drop further as the Central Bank tries to add liquidity into the economy. Fiscal pressures imply a slow recovery for the economy in coming years, rolling back two decades of social improvements.

Swiss economic growth is set to accelerate this year

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Private Consumption ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Consumption Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Economic outlook for Switzerland. Significance Switzerland’s GDP growth disappointed in the first quarter of 2017: it increased by 0.3% on a quarterly and 1.1% on a yearly basis, held back by weak private consumption growth. However, exports rebounded after the long blight of the 2015 franc appreciation shock. Impacts Private consumption should improve after stagnating in 2015-16, benefiting from the labour market recovery. Low interest rates are likely to boost private investment. Chemicals, pharmaceuticals, engineering, electrics and the watch-making industry are likely to benefit from the expected revival in exports. Inflation is likely to average around 0.4% in 2017 and 2018.

Optimistic Mexico budget maintains fiscal tightness

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Inflation

Significance It contains the federal budget and revenue legislation, as well as key macroeconomic domestic and international assumptions and projections, several of which look highly optimistic. Impacts Banxico will probably increase interest rates further due to relatively high inflation levels. Tight fiscal and monetary conditions will probably arrest short-term growth. The peso-dollar exchange rate should remain broadly stable as the fiscal accounts present manageable deficits in 2021-22. The current account is expected to show a small surplus during 2021 as a whole, and a marginal deficit next year. Legislators may raise the expected oil price for 2022 to boost spending in some areas without increasing the fiscal deficit target.

Hungarian economy will face post-election challenges

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Regional Economies ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Levels

Subject The next government's economic prospects. Significance If, as is likely, the Fidesz party wins a third term in office in April, it will look to capitalise upon the upturn in GDP growth in 2017. After stronger-than-expected growth acceleration in the fourth quarter, which is likely to have closed Hungary's output gap, Fidesz may favour loose fiscal and monetary policies to support the economy after the election. Impacts The central bank is expected to hold interest rates at historically low levels well into 2019. GDP is likely to grow as fast in 2018 as in 2017, as Hungary consolidates its position as one of the fastest-growing regional economies. If Fidesz keeps fiscal and monetary policies loose for longer than expected next year, larger budget deficits are likely.

Central bank transparency, inflation targeting and monetary policy: a panel data approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 1159-1174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Caldas Montes ◽  
Cristiane Gea
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Bank Transparency ◽  
Policy Interest

Purpose The evidence concerning the effects of the inflation targeting (IT) regime as well as greater central bank transparency on monetary policy interest rates is not conclusive, and the following questions remain open. What is the effect of adopting IT on both the level and volatility of monetary policy interest rate? Does central bank transparency affect the level of the monetary policy interest rate and its volatility? Are these effects greater in developing countries? The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the literature by answering these questions. Hence, the paper analyzes the effects of IT and central bank transparency on monetary policy. Design/methodology/approach The analysis uses a sample of 48 countries (31 developing) comprising the period between 1998 and 2014. Based on panel data methodology, estimates are made for the full sample, and then for the sample of developing countries. Findings Countries that adopt the IT regime tend to have lower levels of monetary policy interest rates, as well as lower interest rate volatility. The effect of adopting IT on both the level and volatility of the basic interest rate is smaller in developing countries. Besides, countries with more transparent central banks have lower levels of monetary policy interest rates, as well as lower interest rate volatility. In turn, the effect of central bank transparency on both the level and volatility of the basic interest rate is greater in developing countries. Practical implications The study brings important practical implications regarding the influence of both the IT regime and central bank transparency on monetary policy. Originality/value Studies have sought to analyze whether IT and central bank transparency are effective to control inflation. However, few studies analyze the influence of IT and central bank transparency on interest rates. This study differs from the few existing studies since: the analysis is done not only for the effect of transparency on the level of the monetary policy interest rate, but also on its volatility; the central bank transparency index that is used has never been utilized in this sort of analysis; and the study uses panel data methodology, and compares the results between different samples.

Large US household balance sheets pose macro risks

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Health Costs ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Lower Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Trade Growth ◽  
Productivity Gains ◽  
Macroeconomic Risks

Significance An examination of the factors behind the expansion indicates that outsized balance sheets will persist and will pose a number of macroeconomic risks. Impacts Slower workforce growth will pressure GDP growth, trade growth and long-term interest rates, unless productivity gains can offset this. A record number of US business deaths and births in 2020 will affect productivity and have unpredictable impacts on the economy. Lower growth makes it harder to stabilise debt-to-GDP ratios, just as pension and health costs rise as populations age in major economies.

Non-Financial Determinants and economic fluctuations – evidence from Yemen

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 376-391
Author(s):  
Sulaiman Abdullah Saif Alnasser Mohammed
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Arab World ◽  
Economic Status ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Research Review ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Additional Reference ◽  
The Arab Spring ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to examine, by way of an analytical research review, the reasons for the fluctuations in the economic growth of the country of Yemen during the period from 2000 to 2014. The authors are trying to generate the answers to the following questions: Has tourism, oil price, politically instability improved? What is the impact of tourism, oil price and politically instability on economic growth before and after turbulence time? We have found that very low number of papers have written about the topic. Yemen, as a developing country, has been under the influence of an turbulence time. The term “turbulence time” refers to the series of independent uprisings that occurred in 2010 across the Arab world. There is a lack of understanding concerning the economic growth status in the existing literature during this period. Design/methodology/approach The authors use vector error-correction model to examine the impact of candidate variables .This review and analysis could provide an additional understanding in terms of the factors contributing to economic growth in Yemen; particularly before and after the turbulence time. Findings Despite oil prices having appreciated and the unemployment rate having improved, particularly after the Arab Spring, political instability has dominated the scope of determinants for economic growth in Yemen. To address the objective of this study. Originality/value This paper provides an additional reference about the economic status of Yemen.

scholarly journals Global Outlook for 2018: Economy, Finance, and Monetary, with a Particular Case Study of Taiwan

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shyi-Min Lu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Global Economic Growth

In October 2017, IMF President Christine Lagarde declared that the GDP growth of world’s economies in the first half of 2017 was up to the broadest recovery since 2010. So far, the strength of global economic growth has been enhancing. The interest rates and inflation are still at a low level. The global economy has risen from the bottom in 2016 to reach its peak since 2011. As for the degree of economic development, the emerging markets grew fastest, followed by the developing countries, while the advanced economies grew moderately at an average rate around 2%. Manufacturing PMI in major countries, such as the United States, China, the Eurozone, and even Taiwan, have increased above 50 notably in the recent years, while the non-manufacturing PMI is also above 50. Accordingly, the main purpose of this paper is to forecast the global economy in 2018, which is on the trajectory of booming with a certain degree of uncertainty. A particular case study of Taiwan’s overall economic development is presented as well.

The mediation role of public governance in the relationship between entrepreneurship and economic growth

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 316-333
Author(s):  
Allam Mohammed Hamdan ◽  
Reem Khamis ◽  
Ammar Abdulla Al Hawaj ◽  
Elisabetta Barone
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Entrepreneurial Activity ◽  
Public Governance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Economic ◽  
Oil Revenues ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the mediation role of public governance in the relationship between entrepreneurship and economic growth in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Design/methodology/approach To achieve this aim, the study uses a 20-year time series analysis (1996–2015) and tests the effect of entrepreneurship on economic growth, through public governance, via a mediator model. Findings The study has determined that public governance buoys the positive effect that entrepreneurship activities exert on economic growth in the UAE. Based on this determination, the study posits a set of recommendations that focus on supporting entrepreneurship activities that play a significant role in economic growth. Originality/value The study adds to the literature on the impact of entrepreneurship on economies dependent on oil revenues vis-à-vis a public policy perspective. The study provides insights into the type of entrepreneurship that most efficaciously suits the Emirati social and cultural milieu in terms of fostering national economic growth. In addition, the study limns a vision of the role of public governance in creating an enabling environment that stimulates entrepreneurial activity and, in turn, increases economic growth in the Emirates.

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