Voting Intersections: Race, Class, and Participation in Presidential Elections in the United States 2008–2016

Intersectional analyses are increasingly common in sociology; however, analyses of voting tend to focus on only race, class, or gender, using the others as control variables. We assess whether and how race, class, and gender intersect to produce distinct patterns of voter engagement in presidential elections 2008–2016. Per existing research, we find income strongly predicts White voting. However, the class gap in voting is not statistically significant among Black voters. In contrast to common characterizations of Black people as politically disengaged, lower income Black citizens are more likely to vote than their White counterparts. Moreover, the lowest earning Black women vote at dramatically higher rates than any other race-gender combination in this income group. These findings call into question the perceived universality of the income gap in voting and widespread claims that more resources directly facilitate voting. They also have implications for our understanding of political participation, social inequality, and democratic citizenship.

Minmaxing of Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding and Geography Level Ups in Predicting Race

Racial identification is a critical factor in understanding a multitude of important outcomes in many fields. However, inferring an individual’s race from ecological data is prone to bias and error. This process was only recently improved via Bayesian improved surname geocoding (BISG). With surname and geographic-based demographic data, it is possible to more accurately estimate individual racial identification than ever before. However, the level of geography used in this process varies widely. Whereas some existing work makes use of geocoding to place individuals in precise census blocks, a substantial portion either skips geocoding altogether or relies on estimation using surname or county-level analyses. Presently, the trade-offs of such variation are unknown. In this letter, we quantify those trade-offs through a validation of BISG on Georgia’s voter file using both geocoded and nongeocoded processes and introduce a new level of geography—ZIP codes—to this method. We find that when estimating the racial identification of White and Black voters, nongeocoded ZIP code-based estimates are acceptable alternatives. However, census blocks provide the most accurate estimations when imputing racial identification for Asian and Hispanic voters. Our results document the most efficient means to sequentially conduct BISG analysis to maximize racial identification estimation while simultaneously minimizing data missingness and bias.

Protests, Pandemics, and Political Participation: Voter Turnout in Georgia in the 2020 Elections

We consider how pandemic-related shifts in election administration and racial justice protest activity impacted participation in 2020 primary and general elections in Georgia. Using a comprehensive statewide voter file, including data on the self-reported race and validated turnout of over 7 million registered Georgians, we analyze the combined effect of these events on racial differences in voter turnout rates, methods, and timing. We find that despite a shift to mail balloting, Black voters were significantly more likely to vote in person during the pandemic than White Democrats. These voters were later less likely to vote by mail (or vote at all) in November. We also demonstrate that Black turnout was significantly higher in the period following racial justice protests in Georgia than it was for other groups. The results of this study indicate how election reforms and non-electoral mobilization can shape turnout disparities even among highly engaged voters.

Party at the Mailbox: Mobilizing Black Voters with Celebrations of Community

In early 2020 Black Girls Vote, Inc. (BGV) created an initiative to deliver customized locally-themed voter engagement boxes to Baltimore city residents. The pilot Party at the Mailbox (PATM) effort for the June 2020 primary was enormously successful, increasing turnout by 3.5 percentage points overall and by 12.4 percentage points among low-propensity members of households where boxes were delivered. We continued to partner with BGV for the fall general elections as they again worked to increase turnout in Baltimore and also expanded to Detroit and Philadelphia, and for the January 2021 U.S. Senate runoff election in Atlanta. We conclude that PATM works because it cultivates a spirit of celebration about voting that capitalizes on Black group consciousness and Black attitudes about the power of the vote.

Party at the Mailbox: Mobilizing Black Voters with Celebrations of Community

In early 2020 Black Girls Vote, Inc. (BGV) created an initiative to deliver customized locally-themed voter engagement boxes to Baltimore city residents. The pilot Party at the Mailbox (PATM) effort for the June 2020 primary was enormously successful, increasing turnout by 3.5 percentage points overall and by 12.4 percentage points among low-propensity members of households where boxes were delivered. We continued to partner with BGV for the fall general elections as they again worked to increase turnout in Baltimore and also expanded to Detroit and Philadelphia, and for the January 2021 U.S. Senate runoff election in Atlanta. We conclude that PATM works because it cultivates a spirit of celebration about voting that capitalizes on Black group consciousness and Black attitudes about the power of the vote.

The Super-Predator Effect: How Negative Targeted Messages Demobilize Black Voters

This article assesses whether messages that are framed to denigrate a politician or political entity in the eyes of a particular group – defined here as negative targeted messages – decreases Blacks' enthusiasm to vote. It also explores why such messages are effective at demobilizing Black voters. Using a survey experiment implemented on a nationally representative sample, the authors find that Blacks are less enthusiastic about voting when presented with evidence of racism within their preferred political party. Whites and Latinxs do not respond similarly to the same stimulus. The findings also demonstrate evidence that the effectiveness of negative targeted messages towards Blacks is driven by the treatment's ability to alter perceptions of party empathy. Overall, the results suggest that targeted negative messages can be effective at depressing Black turnout. However, parties may be able to counter this negative messaging with evidence of outreach to minority communities to demonstrate a greater sense of empathy.