Israel’s bolder settlement policy may risk stability

Significance Fearing an early collapse of the fragile coalition government inaugurated in May, all constituent parties initially sought to avoid any controversial decisions over Jewish settlements in the West Bank -- even though the base of Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s Yamina party is mostly amongst the national-religious faction, including settlers. Impacts President Isaac Herzog’s move to hold an official ceremony in a Jewish enclave in the West Bank’s Hebron may further legitimise settlements. The Israeli Arab Ra’am party will focus on domestic agendas rather than the settlement question, which is unlikely to win it votes. US policy will depend on how much pressure the progressive flank of the Democratic party can exert.

Subject New coalition government. Significance Three months on from early elections, Kosovo has a new coalition government comprising the incumbent Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK), the Initiative for Kosovo (Nisma), the New Kosovo Alliance (AKR) and Srpska List, headed by Prime Minister and AAK leader Ramush Haradinaj. Its prospects for survival are not good. Impacts Excluding Vetevendosje from government may bring further unrest, motivated by persistent poverty and anger with the political establishment. Serbia has charged Haradinaj with war crimes; his appointment will therefore complicate relations between Prishtina and Belgrade. Kosovo’s dynamics will have read-across in Macedonia, where the second-largest party has also gained power with ethnic minority support.


Significance This also comes as indirect US nuclear talks with Iran resume in Vienna, despite concerted Israeli opposition. US President Joe Biden is in effect withdrawing the unconditional backing his predecessor Donald Trump gave Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. Impacts The Gaza ceasefire will be fragile, with a significant chance of renewed hostilities in the short-to-medium term. The appointment of a new Mossad chief, David Barnea, may lower the profile of but will not materially change Israeli-US intelligence ties. The United States will further increase financial support to both Gaza and the West Bank. In a more serious possible future war against Hezbollah, Washington might not back a major Israeli military incursion into Lebanon.


Significance However, the United States has already blocked a Kuwaiti-drafted statement expressing “outrage” at Israeli security forces’ killings of protesters and calling for an independent investigation. The demonstrations by thousands of Gaza Palestinians approaching the Israeli security fence coincided with the formal opening of the new US embassy in Jerusalem. Impacts The turn in international opinion against Israel could bolster Iran and its Lebanese protégé Hezbollah. Events in Gaza make progress in the stalled Egypt-backed ‘reconciliation’ agreement with the West Bank authorities even more unlikely. Few countries will follow the US example of moving their embassies to Jerusalem, despite Israeli inducements. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s recent foreign policy successes could bolster his position against corruption investigations.


Significance The inclusion of Abbas and his fellow lawmakers, necessary to achieve a narrow majority, has opened the government to strong criticism. It has also set a ground-breaking precedent in Israeli politics. Impacts An early collapse of the coalition government could delegitimise both Abbas and his experiment of engagement. Like religious conservative Jewish ultra-Orthodox parties, Abbas’s group may participate in politics without recognising a Zionist regime. Arab parties are likely to prioritise their communities’ needs over the continuing conflict with Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank.


Significance Under the deal, announced on May 25, he replaces the respected former Israel Defence Forces (IDF) chief of staff, Moshe Ya'alon, who resigned on May 20, marking the culmination of a growing rift with Netanyahu over the occupation of the West Bank and the rules of engagement for soldiers and policemen. Impacts As part of the new coalition deal, the defence budget will be maintained at a minimum of 15 billion dollars a year for the next few years. Lieberman's entry into the coalition will help Netanyahu secure his political future, and allow him more room for manoeuvre. He will influence senior IDF appointments, among them the deputy chief of staff by the end of this year. A successful tenure as defence minister would boost Lieberman's ambition to succeed Netanyahu as prime minister.


Significance The government led by the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) is under mounting pressure as Slovenia prepares to take over the European Council presidency. This is due mainly to hostility in parliament and society to Prime Minister Janez Jansa, who promotes a popular but divisive form of national conservatism. Impacts A successful no-confidence vote in the government followed by early elections would complicate Slovenia’s handling of its EU presidency. The fall of the current government and its replacement by the centre-left would improve Slovenia’s relations with the EU and United States. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban would lose an ally at EU level if Jansa lost office.


2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samir D. Baidoun ◽  
Robert N. Lussier ◽  
Maisa Burbar ◽  
Sawsan Awashra

Purpose The aim of this study is to examine the factors that lead to success or failure of a small business in the West Bank of Palestine. Design/methodology/approach This study methodology is a survey research, testing the Lussier model of business success and failure with a sample of 246 small businesses (90 failed and 156 successful) to better understand the reasons of their success or failure using logistic regression statistical analysis. Findings The model is significant (p = 0.000); it will predict a group of businesses as successful or failed more accurately than random guessing 99 per cent of the time. The model will also predict a specific small firm as successful or failed 94 per cent of the time vs. 50 per cent for random guessing. The r-square is very high (r = 0.70), indicating that the model variables are, in fact, significant predictors of success or failure. Results indicate that having adequate capital, keeping good records with financial controls, making plans and getting professional advice on how to manage the firm are the most important factors for the viability and success of small businesses. Practical implications With the high rate of small business failure globally, results of this study provide a list of variables that contribute to the success of small firms. Firms that focus on these important factors will increase their odds of success. Thus, avoiding failure, firms better utilize resources that contribute to economic growth. Originality/value This is the first study that looks at success and failure of small businesses in Palestine. There is no one single accepted theory that may be applied to small businesses. This paper aims to further contribute to the global validity of Lussier success and failure model moving toward a theory to better understand why some businesses succeed and others fail.


2017 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-15

This section covers items pertaining to Israeli settlement activity in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and the Golan Heights. Significant developments during the quarter 16 November 2016 through 15 February 2017 include: in anticipation of changes to U.S. policy on settlements under incoming U.S. president Donald Trump, Terrestrial Jerusalem and other settlement watch groups outlined the areas they consider most vulnerable to settlement expansion. While the Israeli Security Cabinet voted on 22 January to postpone discussion of a bill facilitating the annexation of the Ma'ale Adumim settlement until after Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu had a chance to meet in person, many analysts highlighted the probable annexation of settlements in East Jerusalem and even possibly part of Area C of the West Bank. Peace Now released a report estimating that 4,000 settlement units and 55 illegal outposts would be retroactively legalized under the recently enacted Regulation Law and documenting the 3,000 additional units that could be newly expropriated under the law (see Update on Conflict & Diplomacy in JPS 46 [3] for more on new Israeli legislation).


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