Oil will drive record Guyana growth again in 2022

Significance As in 2020 and 2021, this projected growth will be driven by the ongoing expansion of the oil and gas sector, and related investment and state revenues. These rising revenues will support the government’s ambitious national development plans, which include both increased social and infrastructure spending. Impacts The government will prioritise enhancing the oil and gas investment framework. Investment into joint oil and gas infrastructure with Suriname will benefit the growing oil industry in both countries. The expansionary fiscal policy may lead to a rise in inflation, leading to further calls for wage increases. In the medium term, strong growth in the oil and gas sector could lead to increased climate change activism in the country.

Subject Proposed reforms in the oil and gas sector. Significance In the face of strong resource nationalism, President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo's government faces strong pressure to improve the balance between public control and private participation in the oil and gas sector. To that end, the government proposes to amend the 2001 oil and gas law. Its draft amendment proposes, most notably, that state enterprises should control all production operations, while private investors provide technology and capital. The government is also considering revisions to the upstream regime, which is currently based on production-sharing contracts (PSCs). These changes require parliamentary approval. Impacts Private firms, especially foreign ones, are likely to delay fresh investment in energy assets, given the oil and gas market glut. Indonesia's vast natural resource endowment will attract private interest, but regulatory uncertainty will be an abiding problem. Transparency in the extractive sector will continue to rise at the national level, but local level reforms will be slow.


Significance Another field, Chouech Essaida, has been shut since February 28 because of labour unrest. Demonstrations extend beyond the oil and gas sector. Months of protests across Tunisia are beginning to exact a toll on the coalition government as demonstrators return to the streets of the capital to challenge the latest effort to pass a controversial ‘economic reconciliation’ bill that would in effect give amnesty to businessmen who engaged in corrupt practices under the former regime. Impacts The unity of the coalition government will come under further pressure as ministers struggle to respond to demonstrations. Political parties risk becoming more isolated from the electorate without major internal reforms. The government will be tempted to return to more authoritarian techniques of rule as protests deepen.


Significance The proposal presents a reasonable diagnosis of the multifaceted problems facing Algeria, but it lacks data, priorities, timeframes or medium-term forecasts. The lack of administrative capacity for reform casts further doubt on the plan's prospects. Impacts Higher gas prices will keep Algeria afloat and could allow Benabderrahmane to stay on as premier. Given the plan’s shortcomings, the government is likely to continue investing in oil and gas to grow hydrocarbons receipts. The informal sector will remain an economic lifeline for Algerians excluded from the underperforming formal economy.


Significance In July, it expressed optimism about achieving net-zero emissions by “2060 or sooner”. This will require a phasing out of coal-fired power plants, currently the dominant source of energy in the country. Impacts Jakarta may include its 2060 target explicitly in future updates of its Nationally Determined Contribution to action against climate change. Indonesian oil and gas firms will step up opposition to the government’s plans to introduce a carbon tax. The government will redouble commitment to reforestation efforts.


Author(s):  
Patrick Gwimbi

Purpose The concept of National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) is advocated at international, regional and national levels. The concept is thought to foster sustainability of livelihoods against impacts of climate change. This paper analyses the mainstreaming of NAPA into national development plans in Lesotho as accentuated by policies and programmes. Design/methodology/approach The analysis is broadly qualitative and reviews policies and projects on agriculture and food security, environment, forestry, water and irrigation aimed at sustaining rural livelihoods. Data from relevant government documents, commissioned studies’ reports, literature and key stakeholders are used. Findings Although the mainstreaming entry point for NAPA is identified in the country’s Vision 2020 and National Strategic Development Plan (NSDP) 2012/13-2016/17, financial, technical, human and other resources are inadequate to ensure its effective implementation. There is little evidence of NAPA mainstreaming into development plans by the line ministries of finance and economic development other than donor-funded projects. Absence of climate change policy influence means NAPA is not well-factored into the national development agenda, as mainstreaming is difficult without appropriate policies. Most projects with effect on climate change impact abatement originate from specific sectors and are disconnected from each other. Originality/value Based on the findings, ways to leverage NAPA via mainstreaming are discussed. It is concluded that NAPA mainstreaming offers a promising avenue for initiating and promoting sustainable livelihoods in Lesotho. The study demonstrates the applicability of the presented sustainable livelihood framework.


Significance The announcement mirrors the structural reforms first envisaged in the long-delayed Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB). President Muhammadu Buhari's policy direction in the oil and gas sector will determine the economy's stability in a global context of declining oil prices, set the pace for other important economic reforms, and be indicative of the government's ability to rein in vested interests. Impacts Brent crude's latest price drop from early June reveals persistent downside demand pressures. Nigeria has partially offset the slowdown in exports to the United States; Indian refineries recently became the largest buyers. Economic vulnerabilities will persist so long as the government fails to diversify its base of foreign exchange receipts.


Significance Fourteen days beforehand, Ardern said no new offshore oil and gas exploration permits would be awarded -- evidence she said of the “government of transformation” she promises. The offshore ban does not affect the wide areas already open for exploration and exploitation over the next three decades, but it reinforces the government’s intention to be more active on climate change and environmental protection. Like the government's “wellbeing economics”, this might prove transformative if Ardern can retain office through to at least the next election in 2020. Impacts The offshore oil and gas exploration ban could see earlier withdrawal by major oil producers. Onshore permits for oil and gas exploration and coal mining will continue. Any major political or economic shock will affect “transformation”, as Robertson warns.


Significance While there is scepticism over the government’s figures, officially recorded deaths are low at 51. However, all sectors of the economy have been negatively impacted -- most notably the pivotal oil and gas sector. While President Teodoro Obiang’s government has pinpointed reforms to help the economy climb out of recession, political openings may be further restricted. Impacts The 78-year-old president is unlikely to hand over power before the 2023 polls. The government will seek closer relations with China for capital financing. Growing economic hardship could drive a rise in offshore piracy. The decision to halt construction of a border wall will ease tensions with neighbouring Cameroon.


Significance The economy has faced major challenges recently: recurring disruptions to the oil and gas sector, state fragmentation and war between the government in Tripoli and the armed forces led by eastern commander Khalifa Haftar. Following agreements last year between Tripoli and Haftar to lift a nine-month oil blockade, oil production recovered sharply in the last quarter of 2020, reaching 1.28 million barrels per day (b/d) in December. Impacts The government may make ambitious new pledges on public and infrastructure spending. Major new projects will still be slow to materialise, though the prime minister is likely to initiate rebuilding projects. Plans for reconstruction projects will probably accelerate, but implementation will lag. The oil sector will manage infrastructure upgrades efficiently.


2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-26
Author(s):  
Haviz Taufik

Tax is also the main source of state revenue, where taxes contribute more than 78% of total state income. The dominance of taxes as the main source of state revenue is no longer from the oil and gas sector, but rather focuses on tax revenues from the non-oil and gas sector because tax revenues from non-oil and gas sources will not run out or have an age limit and play a major role in national development. One of the tax revenues from the non-oil and gas sector is UMKM tax. In July 2013, the Government of Indonesia just issued a Government Regulation (PP) No. 46 which regulates the tax on Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (UMKM). This tax aims to provide convenience to UMKM to calculate the tax due at the end of the year and is a final tax. Many pros and cons of the issuance of PP No. 46 of 2013, because there are some UMKM who feel disadvantaged and there are also those who benefit from the application of this PP. Therefore the author analyzes what are the advantages and disadvantages of applying PP No. 46 of 2013 on UMKM?  After analyzing these problems, the authors concluded that the application of Government Regulation No. 46 of 2013 caused more losses than profits for UMKM because there are still many UMKM that have net profits below 8% and will pay greater taxes, Imposing Income Tax at a rate of 1% based on the amount of turnover not in accordance with the principle of income tax, not in accordance with the provisions of article 25 paragraph (7) letter c of Law No. 36 of 2008 concerning Income Tax, can trigger the emergence of jealousy from other entrepreneurs, and not in accordance with the concept of justice in taxation because it does not reflect the ability to pay.


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