Ethiopia economic plan trumps poll outlook

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Headline ETHIOPIA: Economic plan trumps poll outlook

Significance Amid one of the steepest economic contractions in Europe, with GDP expected to shrink by 11% this year, the relaunch programme aims to reduce the tax burden on business and to incentivise industry to shift to greener, more sustainable activities and forms of production. It also containes short-term measures to save jobs ahead of the 2022 presidential election. Impacts In electoral terms, the relaunch plan targets centre-right voters and those espousing green causes. The risk of social protests will rise, because the plan has far less emphasis on redistribution than many on the left demand. The effort to reshore some forms of production will be opposed by industrial leaders worried it will increase costs.


Subject COVID-19 impact on Spanish politics. Significance Spain is one of the world’s worst-affected countries by COVID-19. Its economic recovery will also be slower and more disjointed than elsewhere. In order to address these unprecedented challenges, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is seeking to negotiate a cross-party agreement -- known as the Moncloa Pacts -- involving all non-extreme parties. The talks aim to create a broad political consensus over how to tackle Spain’s social and economic reconstruction, making it easier and faster to implement policy. Impacts A bipartisan pact would likely boost Sanchez’s public support, given that he is the leader pushing for national cooperation. The existence of a pact would strengthen Sanchez’s push for the EU to share the burden of economic reconstruction. The EU’s failure to implement a coordinated economic plan for the reconstruction period would fuel Euroscepticism in Spain.


Significance The currency, which has fallen 14% against the dollar so far this year, fell another 3% in morning European trade, sinking below 70 to the dollar. The rate cut comes after the January 26 downgrade by international ratings agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) of Russia's sovereign credit rating to junk status (from BBB- to BB+) and the January 28 announcement of an economic plan that will see the government spend 2.34 trillion rubles (35 billion dollars) to bolster key industries, including banks, and to boost its troubled economy particularly in the regions. As part of the measures, Moscow plans a 10% cut in the budgets of all but a handful of ministries. Defence, agriculture and social spending are spared. Impacts Discussions between liberals are not as important to economic policy as they were. Further measures to boost the economy are likely in order to forestall more rating agencies downgrading Russia to junk status. The Security Council will exert greater influence over economic policy, further marginalising economic liberals.


Significance On May 12, Duterte's transition team released an eight-point economic plan, following a bravado-fuelled election campaign that was light on policy content and unnerved investors, partly because key personnel in the administration remained unknown. Impacts Liberal Party defections will strengthen Duterte's congressional influence, and potentially weaken opposition politics. However, new PDP-Laban members could later desert Duterte. Duterte's infrastructure investment and pro-foreign investor reform plans face bottlenecks. A Ferdinand 'Bongbong' Marcos vice presidency would strengthen Duterte further, and reduce the chance of any possible impeachment effort.


Subject Economic policy in Taiwan. Significance The government earlier this month announced an eight-year special budget for infrastructure worth 880 billion Taiwan dollars (29 billion US dollars). It is part of an economic plan in February that aims to boost GDP growth over the next four years, signalling a push to address livelihood issues by the government of President Tsai Ing-wen, whose public support has evaporated since she took office last May. The plan's announcement follows closely on the heels of the introduction of a five-day work week in January. The controversial amendment to the labour law shortening the work week indicates a new willingness by the Tsai administration to weather public discontent in pressing forward with its economic agenda. Impacts GDP growth will get a fiscal boost, but the targeted 2.5-3.0% may still prove too ambitious. The labour reform will create inflationary pressure. Taiwan's export dependence means that domestic policies can only go so far; external demand will be crucial.


Significance This is consistent with elements of the National League for Democracy (NLD)-led government's economic policy that was finally released on July 29, four months after the party went into office. The new economic plan is largely aspirational, consisting of a 'vision', four 'mission' statements and twelve vaguely worded bullet point 'policies'. Impacts Investors may delay investment pledges pending further regulatory reform and policy detail. Likely investor prospects lie in agriculture, industrialisation, electricity, green technology, roads and ports. Any confusion over economic policies could see differing initiatives pursued locally.


Significance Recently, the IMF published its annual country surveillance report on Nigeria, which warned of serious consequences from “insufficient” policies proposed in the government’s newly launched economic policy framework, the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP). With only two years left in the current administration, the four-year plan faces significant implementation risks. Persistent policy incoherence raises doubts about the political will to repair the country’s ailing economy. Impacts The government’s plan to increase foreign borrowing from 16% to 40% of total debt will make exchange rate liberalisation more difficult. Data discrepancies between the ERGP and the IMF’s report could further damage the credibility of the government’s economic team. A comprehensive new Niger Delta peace plan would make raised oil production targets achievable.


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Headline MYANMAR: New economic plan implies investment needs


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Headline TURKEY: Three-year economic plan aims at elections


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