Developing Composite Indices for Assessing Vulnerability to Floods due to Climate Change: Applying the Order Rated Effectiveness Modeling Method

2020 ◽  
pp. 117-142
Author(s):  
Ronald Klimberg ◽  
Samuel Ratick
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Modeling Method ◽  
Composite Indices

scholarly journals A Partition Modeling for Anthropogenic Heat Flux Mapping in China

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shasha Wang ◽  
Deyong Hu ◽  
Shanshan Chen ◽  
Chen Yu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Flux ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Thermal Environment ◽  
Modeling Method ◽  
Anthropogenic Heat ◽  
Regional Characteristics ◽  
Anthropogenic Heat Flux

Anthropogenic heat (AH) generated by human activities has a major impact on urban and regional climate. Accurately estimating anthropogenic heat is of great significance for studies on urban thermal environment and climate change. In this study, a gridded anthropogenic heat flux (AHF) estimation scheme was constructed based on socio-economic data, energy-consumption data, and multi-source remote sensing data using a partition modeling method, which takes into account the regional characteristics of AH emission caused by the differences in regional development levels. The refined AHF mapping in China was realized with a high resolution of 500 m. The results show that the spatial distribution of AHF has obvious regional characteristics in China. Compared with the AHF in provinces, the AHF in Shanghai is the highest which reaches 12.56 W·m−2, followed by Tianjin, Beijing, and Jiangsu. The AHF values are 5.92 W·m−2, 3.35 W·m−2, and 3.10 W·m−2, respectively. As can be seen from the mapping results of refined AHF, the high-value AHF aggregation areas are mainly distributed in north China, east China, and south China. The high-value AHF in urban areas is concentrated in 50–200 W·m−2, and maximum AHF in Shenzhen urban center reaches 267 W·m−2. Further, compared with other high resolution AHF products, it can be found that the AHF results in this study have higher spatial heterogeneity, which can better characterize the emission characteristics of AHF in the region. The spatial pattern of the AHF estimation results correspond to the distribution of building density, population, and industry zone. The high-value AHF areas are mainly distributed in airports, railway stations, industry areas, and commercial centers. It can thus be seen that the AHF estimation models constructed by the partition modeling method can well realize the estimation of large-scale AHF and the results can effectively express the detailed spatial distribution of AHF in local areas. These results can provide technical ideas and data support for studies on surface energy balance and urban climate change.

scholarly journals Investigating South Africa’s Fresh Peach and Nectarine Value Proposition: Measuring Progress on Achieving Sustainable Consumption in Exports

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2615
Author(s):  
Chiedza Zvirurami Tsvakirai ◽  
Teboho Jeremiah Mosikari
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South African ◽  
Sustainable Development Goals ◽  
Sustainable Consumption ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Composite Indices ◽  
Responsible Consumption ◽  
Value Propositions ◽  
Development Goals

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have shone a spotlight on the importance of adaption to climate change. However, progress in achieving SDG 12 which calls for, “responsible consumption and production” has been stalled by the unavailability of indicators that adequately capture and motivate increased responsible consumption. To fill this gap, this article presents an alternative indicator that makes use of cultivar characteristics and uses South African fresh peach and nectarine exports as a focus area. Principal component analysis is used to extract and summarize the product value propositions identified in composite indices that were constructed by weighting the proportional use of cultivars in exports between 1956 and 2017. The indices acquired from the analysis were found to measure the provisions for sustainable consumption, good-quality fruit and off-peak fruit supply. The study’s results show that progress was found in the provisions for sustainable consumption and this was mainly driven by improvements in cultivars’ climate change adaptability. However, the last two decades have been characterized by years of successive lower readings on this index. Improvements in fruit quality index were found to be attained at the expense of farm enterprise productivity. The study concludes that strategies be developed to encourage the use of cultivars that promote responsible consumption as, if left uninfluenced, market forces will spur unsustainable production.

scholarly journals Assessing the Adaptive Capacity of Households to Climate Change in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 106
Author(s):  
Demamu Mesfin ◽  
Belay Simane ◽  
Abrham Belay ◽  
John W. Recha ◽  
Ute Schmiedel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Rift Valley ◽  
Grazing Land ◽  
Household Level ◽  
Composite Indices ◽  
Administrative Units ◽  
Lower Contribution ◽  
Better Than

This paper explores the different components of the adaptive capacity of households in the Central Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia and quantifies their relative contributions. The data were derived from a survey of 413 households randomly selected from four Kebeles (the smallest government administrative units) in the CRV. The adaptive capacity of the households was assessed using the Local Adaptive Capacity (LAC) framework and measured in terms of both aggregate and composite indices, with sixty indicators distributed across five major components and subcomponents. The index score for major components shows that intangible variables such as institutions and entitlements, knowledge and information, and innovation contributed to adaptive capacity better than decision–making and governance and asset–base. The composite indices for sub–components showed that the contribution of woodlands to adaptive capacity was positive and superior to other natural assets. Grazing land was the next best contributor, while farmland and water resources made a much lower contribution. The findings of this study are useful to better understand the nature of adaptive capacity and its components at the household level. This study suggests the need for an integrated assessment and enhancement of adaptive capacity with all its components rather than focusing only on asset possession as an indicator of adaptive capacity.

Averting robo-bees: why free-flying robotic bees are a bad idea

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 723-729
Author(s):  
Roslyn Gleadow ◽  
Jim Hanan ◽  
Alan Dorin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Computer Simulation ◽  
Food Security ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Plant Interactions ◽  
Plant Insect Interactions ◽  
Native Habitat ◽  
Insect Pollinators ◽  
Insect Interactions

Food security and the sustainability of native ecosystems depends on plant-insect interactions in countless ways. Recently reported rapid and immense declines in insect numbers due to climate change, the use of pesticides and herbicides, the introduction of agricultural monocultures, and the destruction of insect native habitat, are all potential contributors to this grave situation. Some researchers are working towards a future where natural insect pollinators might be replaced with free-flying robotic bees, an ecologically problematic proposal. We argue instead that creating environments that are friendly to bees and exploring the use of other species for pollination and bio-control, particularly in non-European countries, are more ecologically sound approaches. The computer simulation of insect-plant interactions is a far more measured application of technology that may assist in managing, or averting, ‘Insect Armageddon' from both practical and ethical viewpoints.

Modelling ecosystem adaptation and dangerous rates of global warming

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 221-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Millington ◽  
Peter M. Cox ◽  
Jonathan R. Moore ◽  
Gabriel Yvon-Durocher
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Diffusion Rate ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Genetic Evolution ◽  
Rates Of Change ◽  
Rapid Climate Change ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Intraspecies Competition ◽  
High Trait

Abstract We are in a period of relatively rapid climate change. This poses challenges for individual species and threatens the ecosystem services that humanity relies upon. Temperature is a key stressor. In a warming climate, individual organisms may be able to shift their thermal optima through phenotypic plasticity. However, such plasticity is unlikely to be sufficient over the coming centuries. Resilience to warming will also depend on how fast the distribution of traits that define a species can adapt through other methods, in particular through redistribution of the abundance of variants within the population and through genetic evolution. In this paper, we use a simple theoretical ‘trait diffusion’ model to explore how the resilience of a given species to climate change depends on the initial trait diversity (biodiversity), the trait diffusion rate (mutation rate), and the lifetime of the organism. We estimate theoretical dangerous rates of continuous global warming that would exceed the ability of a species to adapt through trait diffusion, and therefore lead to a collapse in the overall productivity of the species. As the rate of adaptation through intraspecies competition and genetic evolution decreases with species lifetime, we find critical rates of change that also depend fundamentally on lifetime. Dangerous rates of warming vary from 1°C per lifetime (at low trait diffusion rate) to 8°C per lifetime (at high trait diffusion rate). We conclude that rapid climate change is liable to favour short-lived organisms (e.g. microbes) rather than longer-lived organisms (e.g. trees).

Climate change and breeding success: decline of the capercaillie in Scotland

2001 ◽  
Vol 70 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Moss ◽  
James Oswald ◽  
David Baines
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Breeding Success
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