A fuzzy approach to scenario analysis in strategic planning

Objective: The present study had the purpose of analyzing variables that directly influence the strategic planning of the Pro-Rectory Student (PROEST) of the Federal University of Alagoas (UFAL) using scenario building management tools. Methodology: The research is exploratory and applied with the use of survey, documentary, bibliographic, questionnaires and interviews with the civil servants, managers and students in a quali-quanti cross-sectional analysis with scenario focusing on the scenario from the SWOT matrix and survey of priority actions from the perspective of the target audience Originality: The application of scenario analysis tools, using the SWOT matrix as a guide and delimiter of the planning of actions to be developed by the UFAL, enables a new perception of the academic unit in relation to problem situations and management focus.Main results: Students in a situation of socioeconomic vulnerability glimpse a greater amount of actions aimed at direct transfer of resources, which is justified due to the difficulties faced daily by these students who use these resources to maintain their activities at the University and in self and family support; on the other hand, the SWOT matrix presents a scenario of offensive weakness where the unit does not have internal organizational capacity related to the totality of PNAES actions. Theoretical Contributions: The adoption of scenario analysis tools enables the integrationbetween planning and operation of the strategic process in the construction of multiannual planning with the use of configurations and awareness of characteristics for effective deliberation, including the best paths after organizational diagnosis analysis.

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Neuro-Fuzzy Approach for Technology Strategic Planning

Advances in Electronic Government, Digital Divide, and Regional Development - Private Sector Innovations and Technological Growth in the MENA Region ◽

10.4018/978-1-5225-7086-8.ch003 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 45-62

Author(s):

Maryam Ebrahimi

Keyword(s):

Strategic Planning ◽

Petrochemical Industry ◽

Technology Strategy ◽

Planning Model ◽

Fuzzy Approach ◽

Test Error ◽

Neuro Fuzzy ◽

Strategy Planning ◽

Technology Strategies ◽

Patent Indicators

In the chapter, a neuro-fuzzy-based technology strategic planning model is suggested. It is the result of an integrated and systematic hybrid of existing models presented in the literature of technology strategy planning and hybrid intelligent strategic planning. The neuro-fuzzy technique is used for modeling of technology strategies with MATLAB. The model is evaluated in Iran's petrochemical industry based on average test error and average train error which were satisfying. A list of technologies in the industry, the industry's ability in the development of technology, the attractiveness of technology in the industry, and patent indicators are identified based on experts' viewpoints. According to the location of technologies in decision matrices of technology strategies, technology strategies are proposed in three categories: research-driven, investment-driven, and knowledge-driven. Data is collected by the researchers in subsidiary companies who do research in specific fields of petrochemical industry and have the knowledge in those fields.

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Strategic Planning

Opening Strategy ◽

10.1093/oso/9780198738893.003.0005 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 127-170

Author(s):

Richard Whittington

Keyword(s):

Strategic Planning ◽

Scenario Analysis ◽

Corporate Strategy ◽

Initial Step ◽

Portfolio Analysis ◽

Institutional Work ◽

Organizational Complexity ◽

Long Range Planning ◽

And Control ◽

Rule Making

This chapter examines the development of strategic planning practices from around 1960. Strategic planning advanced on the prior practice of long-range planning by emphasizing choice, competition, and control. It also made an initial step towards more open forms of strategizing by widening the discourse of strategy among managerial elites. Strategic planning’s rise was supported by three exogenous forces: growing organizational complexity, a culture of rationality, and new analytical technologies. Nevertheless, strategic planning’s development still took two kinds of arduous and fallible institutional work: ‘rule-making’ and ‘resource-organizing’. Under the first, corporate strategists, such as Shell’s Pierre Wack, created and disseminated techniques, such as scenario analysis, while consultants, such as BCG and McKinsey, promoted portfolio analysis. Under the second, entrepreneurs, such as Bruce Henderson, had to create new consulting organizations, such as BCG, and corporate strategists, such as Jack McKitterick at General Electric, built the first corporate strategy units.

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FUZZY SCENARIO ANALYSIS IN STRATEGIC PLANNING

International Journal of General Systems ◽

10.1080/03081070108960705 ◽

2001 ◽

Vol 30 (2) ◽

pp. 193-207 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

HSIAO-FAN WANG ◽

WAN-YU CHANG

Keyword(s):

Strategic Planning ◽

Scenario Analysis

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A fuzzy clustering-based method for scenario analysis in strategic planning: The case of an Asian pharmaceutical company

South African Journal of Business Management ◽

10.4102/sajbm.v39i3.564 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 39 (3) ◽

pp. 21-31 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

M. S. Pishvaee ◽

M. Fathi ◽

F. Jolai

Keyword(s):

Strategic Planning ◽

Pharmaceutical Company ◽

Set Theory ◽

Fuzzy Clustering ◽

Fuzzy Set ◽

Scenario Analysis ◽

Fuzzy Set Theory ◽

Uncertain Parameters ◽

Competitive Advantages ◽

Lack Of Information

In today’s rapid changing market situations, many nations and companies try to keep or make better their situation and gain more market share by creating competitive advantages. Because of growing number of uncertain parameters in the environment and lack of information about the future, the strategic choice has become very complex and critical. One of the popular tools for solving the problem is scenario analysis. In this paper based on fuzzy clustering we propose a method for building, analyzing and ranking the possible scenarios. To cope with the issue of uncertain parameters of the environment in strategic planning, we use the concept of fuzzy set theory to enhance the proposed method. Finally the performance of the proposed method is illustrated in a strategic planning case in a pharmaceutical company.

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Strategic Planning in the Student Assistance Public Policy: A Scenario Analysis at the Federal University of Alagoas (UFAL) as Support for the Implementation of the National Plan for Student Assistance (PNAES)

Revista Ibero-Americana de Estratégia ◽

10.5585/riae.v18i4.16201 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 18 (4) ◽

pp. 651-664

Author(s):

Gilmar Sarmento Da Silva Junior ◽

Paulo Da Cruz Freire Dos Santos

Keyword(s):

Public Policy ◽

Strategic Planning ◽

Scenario Analysis ◽

National Plan ◽

Student Assistance

Objetivo do esttudo: O presente trabalho tem como finalidade analisar variáveis organizacionais que influenciam diretamente o planejamento estratégico da Pro-Reitoria Estudantil (PROEST) da Universidade Federal de Alagoas (UFAL) através de ferramentas gerenciais de construção de cenário.Metodologia: A pesquisa se caracteriza como exploratória e aplicada com a utilização de levantamentos documentais, bibliográficos, questionários e entrevistas com o corpo técnico, gestor e discentes em uma análise transversal quali-quanti com enfoque no cenário a partir da matriz SWOT e levantamento de ações prioritárias na perspectiva do público-alvo.Originalidade: A Aplicação de ferramentas de análise de cenário, utilizando a matriz SWOT como norteador e delimitador do planejamento das ações a serem desenvolvidas pela UFAL, possibilita uma nova percepção da unidade acadêmica frente as situações-problema e enfoque gerencial.Principais Resultados: Os discentes em situação de vulnerabilidade socioeconômica, público-alvo da política, vislumbram um maior número de ações voltadas ao repasse direto de recursos, que se justifica devido às dificuldades enfrentadas diariamente por esses discentes que utilizam esses recursos para manutenção das suas atividades na Universidade e no sustento próprio e de sua família; por outro lado, a matriz SWOT apresenta um cenário de debilidade ofensiva onde a unidade não possui capacidade organizacional interna referente à totalidade do atendimento das ações do PNAES.Contribuições Teóricas: A adoção de ferramentas para análise de cenário possibilita a integração entre planejamento e operação quanto ao processo estratégico na construção do planejamento plurianual com o uso de configurações e conscientização de características para uma deliberação eficaz, incluindo os melhores caminhos após análise do diagnóstico organizacional.

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Scenario Analysis Method and its Application in Medium- and Long-Term Planning of Aviation Safety Development

Applied Mechanics and Materials ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.687-691.5036 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 687-691 ◽

pp. 5036-5039

Author(s):

Xu Sheng Gan ◽

Jin Liang Chen ◽

Hai Tao Zhao

Keyword(s):

Strategic Planning ◽

Scenario Analysis ◽

Aviation Safety ◽

Analysis Method ◽

Airline Safety ◽

Qualitative Prediction ◽

The Future

In order to formulate the medium-and long-term planning of aviation safety development, a qualitative prediction and analysis method known as scenario analysis method is introduced in the field of safety strategic planning. An actual example on an airline safety development in the future 5 years shows that the proposed qualitative prediction and analysis method has a good feasibility and effectiveness.

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